The Economist is not optimistic about Sen. John Kerry's chances in Ohio

[Bombtrack]

http://economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=2651806

saying his campaign in the Buckeye State "is a shambles" while President Bush's "has the feeling of a well-oiled corporate machine."

In the end, Kerry may be forced to bail out on the state (like Al Gore did in 2000) because Ohio "is a horrifically expensive state to campaign in, with three big metropolitan areas and six different big media markets."

[onehandle]

1. Gotta be either Ohio or Florida.

Florida is a Bushco setup. Kerry will win with Ohio.

[Bombtrack]

18. Ohio isn't any more reliable if you rely on paranoia

Bob Taft and there GOP sec of state are just as much Bush stooges as the Florida GOP and they have the headquarters of DIEBOLD.

I'm not saying We can't win either of them I'm saying it's absolutely unfounded to declare one more "fixed" as the other when Florida fell off the truck in ways that would be impossible in this election without a recount, because that is was the main malfeasance in 2000, interference with the recount so they could get it to the SCOTUS. And if there had been 600 more Gore votes, from Nader votes(which will probably mostly be for Kerry by the time of the election) or from butterfly ballots(which no longer exist) or from black democrats(who are more excited about getting rid of this president than any other in FLorida history, or from military and hispanic voters who have various reasons for being more likely to chose Kerry than Gore over Bush.

[Mattforclark]

2. As compared to what?

Ohio "is a horrifically expensive state to campaign in, with three big metropolitan areas and six different big media markets"

As compared to:

Florida??? Pennsylvania?

What does the economist think he's going to do, quit the election?

[beyurslf]

21. Well as compared to KS of course. :)

we have 2 major media markets and they are not expensive in the national sense.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. I could be wrong, but

Isn't The Economist a right-wing, or at least right-wing leaning, source anyway?

[Terry_M]

10. Careful with ignoring the media.

It's one thing to understand they could be lying all the time, but it's another to ignore all criticizm from them, and assume just because it's a right-leaning source, all the stuff they say which you don't like is false.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. Ignoring and taking with a grain of salt are two different things

Now, clearly, this is a slanted article. To declare a Bush victory in the face of polls that indicate Kerry is leading by 4% despite still having a low issue awareness is flat out biased and easy to dismiss. Maybe Kerry's campaign team isn't the best in Ohio and perhaps it is a difficult state to campaign in, but it's total bullshit to say he can't do it.

[Terry_M]

17. Fair Enough

Just making sure :)

[BurtWorm]

4. The Economist was optimistic about the Bushists' chances in Iraq.

I take their optimism and pessimism with a grain of salt.

[lovedems]

5. Yeah well, the Economist is just another shill for the chimp.

Aren't they a british magazine anyway?

[WI_DEM]

6. Gore shouldn't have bailed

given that he lost Ohio by only four-points, but that might have been last minute tightening since I don't know what his private polls showed.

[dsc]

23. It was a defensible decision at the time

though it turned out badly. Every poll which had been published showed Gore losing badly. It should be noted that Gore only lost one really close state in which he campaigned at the end (NH). Had Florida not been stolen, this would have looked inspired.

[DieboldMustDie]

7. The biggest problem I see in Ohio...

is that Wally O'Dell has pretty much promised it to Chimpy. :mad:

[RobertSeattle]

8. The Economist Curse

Anything they say will not happen... (The said Clinton should resign too)

"

[gasperc]

9. the dem party is a appalling weak in OH

despite Bush's pathetic polls numbers. The few rethugs in the state have one thing going for them, a decently organized state party. A small, well paid crew organizing a solid ground campaign could win the state. And focus ads in Cleveland and maybe Colombus, an uptick of a few points in turnout would make the difference.
A small investment in Ohio would at least force Bush Inc to spend big dough in a state where their 21EV are essential. And besides, ads in the Pittsburgh market will spill over into parts of eastern Ohio, and ads out of Toledo spill over into south Michigan and parts of Indiana!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Ohio's economy sucks, their governor sucks, and taxes are up

what a bunch of BS.

[Don_G]

12. I Think Kerry Needs Someone Like Carville

To manage the campaign.

I'll find out a little more later as my fiance and I plan to attend Kerry's rally at the airport this evening.

I am disappointed though because his stop in my city dosen't include any appearance less than $1000 beyond the airport rally.

That kind of shuts "average joe voter" out and gives the impression that it's a paid for selection process.

[dsc]

14. Just how many publiciations are going to have to agree with what I am

saying before the rabid Kerry people here will take notice. Virtually every complaint I have in regards to Kerry is in this piece. Oh, and the magazine endorsed Gore in 2000 not Bush.

[AP]

15. Whether the article is true or not, sometime in the last decade the

Economist was purchased by a huge media conglomerate and the editorial slant shifted to the right.

[dsc]

26. The current cover is asking Rumsfeld to resign

While they are on the right of the English spectrum they would be at worst a moderately conservative magazine. Kerry can pull this out or I wouldn't be harping on it here or anywhere else, but time is running out.

[AP]

27. I've made my argument abot that. I think if Rummy resigned, Bush wins.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1546540

Although I think you're right to be startled about Kerry's OH campaign, I also think it's important to recognize that the new Economist is a mouthpiece for neoliberalism and concentration of wealth and power and, although it tries to disguise its editorial agenda behind the cloak of cold, calculating economic analysis, this isn't your father's economist any longer. It's a rag, and it's important to read it with an understanding of what they're agenda really is.

[dsc]

28. I haven't read that magazine much since college

which would kind of make that your fathers economist in all fairness. I do think they are overly pessimistic if Kerry starts to do reasonable things. But, I am getting more and more scared as time goes on. ACT is trying its best but it won't be enough given the legal limits it has.

[Kolesar]

16. Ohio is expensive because there are many media markets

It takes a lot of money to run TV commericals in all of these media markets: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, Youngstown, and there is even an Akron station and some TV in Marietta, Findlay and some other small cities.

[Bombtrack]

24. Yeah and they're all small metros relative to the rest of the country

in the way a metro makes up a percentage of the total state population.

For instance in Arizona you could get away with just running ads in the Phoenix metro and a tad in Tucson, in Nevada just the Vegas metro and a smidgen in Reno.

But in Ohio it's much different

[Spazito]

19. Ohioans have donated $1.25 million to Kerry

In the last 60 days, the funding spigots have been turned wide open for Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) -- with nearly $49 million flowing into his campaign.



Ohioans have added more than a few drops to those buckets.


Since declaring his candidacy, Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has taken in more than $1.25 million from Ohioans.


Jim Ruvolo, Kerry's Ohio campaign chairman, characterized the Massachusetts senator's fund-raising efforts in Ohio as strong and "getting stronger."

more

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/krakron/20040510/lo_krakron/ohioanshavedonated125milliontokerry

[On the Road]

20. They're not THAT Pessimistic

Despite the dreary description of the Democratic Party organization, they still give Kerry a 2-out-of-5 shot of winning the state.



I would agree that Bush has a slightly better than even shot at winning Ohio. Kerry should try for a win, but should not despair if it looks like he will lose.

[dumpster_baby]

22. The Economist think Bush style is "disciplined management"!!

"for all that, Samuel's great-grandson goes into the 2004 election in Ohio as the favourite, because he is bringing to this election the same fervent belief in careful planning and disciplined management.`"

Bushco management is "disciplined"?

LOL! That is rich! Biggest deficit ever?

[Kolesar]

25. Yeah, I caught that too

Bush is ideological and impulsive. He does apply self-discipline to his time, but what does he have to show for it? disaster