Why The Polls Don't Add Up - Andrew Kohut

[WillyT]

<snip>

Understandably, many Democrats have begun to despair — if Mr. Kerry can't gain ground when the president is in trouble, when can he? His defenders suggest that the evenly divided, highly polarized electorate is so dug in that neither candidate can break away. Others attribute Mr. Kerry's lack of progress to the multimillion-dollar Bush advertising blitz in swing states.

These explanations may have some merit, but the data show there is still a sizable independent swing vote that could drive the election one way or the other. And the declines in the senator's favorable ratings have been modest — even in the swing states, where the Bush-Cheney advertising hit him hardest, polls show that most voters still hold positive or neutral views of him.

The real reason that Mr. Kerry is making so little progress is that voters are now focused almost exclusively on the president. This is typical: as an election approaches, voters first decide whether the incumbent deserves re-election; only later do they think about whether it is worth taking a chance on the challenger. There is no reason to expect a one-to-one relationship between public disaffection with the incumbent and an immediate surge in public support for his challenger.

<snip>

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/12/opinion/12KOHU.htm

Man I hope that's true!!! It would explain a lot.

:shrug:

[beyurslf]

1. And wouldn't there a disconnect from the time some people

begin to not support Bush and the time the do support Kerry? Has anyone watched to see if undecideds have gone up? This could be people leaving the Buch camp but not yet stepping into ours. We will see them come in the months ahead as they take a second (or first) look at Kerry and decide against Bush.

[DEMVET-USMC]

8. The American Research Group Polls show some former Bush supporters

moving to the undecideds camp and many GOPs ,about 10% , say they are going to vote for SENATOR ,WAR HERO, JOHN KERRY. GO DEMOCRATS ! ! Lets send this "Clown in Charge" packing. ...Oscar

[WMliberal]

2. i've heard differently from poll breakdowns

that the swing vote is less than 10% of those likely to vote. oh well, should be enough for us to win.

[KoKo]

3. We All HOPE this is true! That the "Strategy" will work. No one wants

it more than those of us here. But, oh for a candidate who could speak to the people about what Bush & Co. has done to America and how
he's been aided all along by the Corporate Media, Big Business Interests.

Bush Lite is no answer. But, the time is not right for the Dem Candidate who will talk about this is more than "hushed whispers."

We will have to suffer with the "clueless Americans" who are still waving their flags, though they may be in tatters, and their convictions about Bush may be wavering, they don't yet see where it all went wrong and how much work and suffering it will take to "Get our Country back."

Good for Kerry. He may have to be the "interim" before we get in the trenches and do "REAL REFORM!"

[DEMVET-USMC]

4. Polls don`t add up because they are liars. Kerry doing very well.

He is now 7% AHEAD of bush in OHIO. He is leading Bush by 3% Nationwide and it just keeps moving KERRY`S way. KERRY IS AHEAD IN FLORIDA AND tied in West Virginia and North Carolina. Check out THE AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP for accurate polls they are the best in my opinion. ...Oscar

[rock]

5. Absolutely correct

You've got to be insane to believe the polls.

[DEMVET-USMC]

7. Thanks Rock , Re: You`ve got to be insane to believe polls,GOP owns

most of the media and pollsters. They use these phony polls to manipulate the public, I know you no doubt realize all this so I`m using this response to inform those who don`t. Please all recall how these polls had Howard Dean all but nominated to be the Democratic Nominee. No offense intended toward Dean supporters, but the GOP knew he would be much easier to beat than WAR HERO JOHN KERRY or WAR HERO GENERAL CLARK. They have been beating the WAR DRUMS for over three years now and distinguished WARTIME SERVICE is something of great value in the upcoming Election. Boy George IS NOT nor can GOP turn him into anything remotely resembling a geuine WAR HERO. They are trying with all this " I am a war President " crap, and and having BOY GEORGE dress up as a soldier and show up at military installations and such but it is not working. For example that stunt they arranged with him flying to the AIRCRAFT CARRIER ABRAHAM LINCOLN. Recall that there was that large banner behind him declaring "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED". I doubt the GOP will be touting that "photo op" out. In fact it may prove to be a photo us Democrats will want to use considering the sorry situation in Iraq. Boy George and his minions have proven what a sorry excuse for a Commander in Chief Mr. War President is. ...Oscar

[WillyT]

6. Kick !!!

:kick:

[KharmaTrain]

9. Watch The Independent Undecideds

I think this article is spot on. People are taking a real close look at Bunnypants right now. It's a two-fold process...first, has he done a good job, second, if people want him for another 4 years. Thus watch the drop in his approvals at this point as an indication that people are starting to take that first real good look.

Yep, the boy's gotten a pass...especially since 9/11, but there's been too much crap lately for anyone to ignore. I'm gonna coin the term "Bush Fatigue" or "Bushwacked" as a future feature as people tire of the war, the poor economy and this lame regime.

I saw a poll that showed the Undecided Independent numbers starting to increase. That's a good thing. There's a great place for moderate Repugnicans to go to show their change in attitude about their manchild.

Patience is what we need at this point. The regime has the spotlight all to itself right now. We just sit back and hand 'em rope.

[WillyT]

10. I Agree, But Patience In The Middle Of A Tornado Is A Hard Thing, No ???

:bounce::bounce::nuke: oops!

[snippy]

11. Excellent article with interesting analysis.

While many people have written about an election featuring an incumbent being a referendum on that incumbent, this is the first time I have seen it described as a two stage process. Kohut's numbers from the 1980 and 1992 elections certainly seem to support his explanation.

FIRE THE LIAR