These poll numbers that have Kerry ahead of Bush.

[coloradodem2005]

Someone last night told me that even thes poll numbers that have Kerry ahead are the most pessimistic where we are concerned. Meaning that Bush's numbers are a ceiling and Kerry's are a base. Meaning that that is the most people that will possibly vote for Bush and the least people that will possible vote for Kerry. Meaning Kerry could easily get more votes than the polls suggest and Bush could easily get less. But not vice-versa. What do you think? THis makes me feel good.

[vi5]

1. Historically it's more or less correct I think, BUT.....

That's assuming that none of the swing voters break for Bush. Conventional Wisdom is that 2/3 or something like that of swing voters usually vote AGAINST the incumbent.

However, given people's fragile states of mind and easily swayed frames of existence post 9/11 and with the media we have today, I don't think we can count on anything to be like it has in the past.

[Kazak]

2. Lost approval numbers...

typically do not come back. But then, LIHOP is something new to the world of politics. :scared:

[progressiveBadger]

3. Makes me feel good too

Don't know how much faith I put in it, but I gotta say that it's better hearing that than it is hearing that Bush is up.

[flowomo]

4. I've heard that argument many times on DU now...

and as much as I'd like to buy it, I am still not convinced. The dynamics behind polls and people who are polled are just too complex to be squeezed into one easy interpretation. The Bush numbers could easily rise again as the result of any number of factors, not the least of which would be a serious Kerry stumble (and vice versa, of course). It bears repeating that polls are like ping-pong games: the ball keeps moving back and forth, and this early in the game, at a furious speed.

[Zinfandel]

5. Still a lot of work to be done and donations to be made for Kerry...

"I would like to see you guys fight like you're 15 points behind.
I remember the last days of the 1992 Clinton campaign. His staff told him he already had the race won,
but Clinton kept working 18 hour days, campaigning in six states per day sometimes, like he was still behind."

:kick:

[Tempest]

6. Do you want some really good news?

Incumbent Races: Closer Than They Appear

by Nick Panagakis

http://www.socastee.com/all_politics/incumbent_races.htm

(Nick Panagakis, a member of the National Council on Public Polls, is
president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion
research firm headquartered in Mt. Prospect, Ill. This article
appeared in the February 27, 1989 edition of The Polling Report.)

How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have
been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat
match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will
break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll
respondents who stated a candidate preference.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an
incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time,
most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

[On the Road]

7. The Approval Numbers May Not Change Much

but VOTER TURNOUT could swing a lot. That's what the election will depend on.

Right now Democrats have the energy and the anger that will fuel, but the Bush campaign is trying its own get-out-the-vote effort. And if there's a terrorist attack on Halloween, who knows how that will affect voters?

[coloradodem2005]

8. I still don't get this.

If there is another terrorist attack, this should prove that Bush has not done his job. It makes me so fucking angry that another attack would make people vote for him. If there is another attack, that should just add to the reasons that we don't vote for him.

[On the Road]

12. Maybe Another Attack Should Hurt Bush

and maybe it will, but it depends on how voters interpret it. After Sep 11 a lot of Democrats rallied behind Bush. All the early protests died down, and Bush enjoyed his period of greatest popularity.

I believe that's Bush's biggest hope of getting re-elected, even more than an expanding economy.

[jtb33]

9. Good point.

This early, election ("who-would-you-vote-for") polls really don't mean much - especially this year with all the dynamic events going on around us. I think the polls will be more accurate as we get closer to November. I don't put much weight in the "polls" anyway. Historically, have polls been good at judging/predicting the outcome of a presidential race?

[Renew Deal]

10. That sounds like Zogby.

He said something very similar.

[blm]

11. It's the negatives that have to be a big concern for Bush. Those

almost ALWAYS go in only one direction - UP.