Managing expectations: the convention bounce(s)

[Bucky]

I noticed before the convention all the predictable pundits were forecasting the "convention bounce" that Kerry would get. Typically conservative commentators were saying there'd be a 15-20% bounce for Kerry. Everyone else was saying 5-10%. When Joe Scarborough said 15%, Andrea Mitchell usefully pointed out that, with the electorate polling at 47-45, there's not really enough undecideds out there to give anybody a 15% bounce. Made Scarborough look foolish.

Now here's what I'm seeing:

PreConvention PostConvention Bounce
Newsweek
Kerry(Dem) - 51% - 52% - +1%
Bush (Rep) - 45% - 44% - -1%

Zogby
Kerry(Dem) - 46% - 47% +1%
Bush (Rep) - 41% - 44% -3%

ABC-WaPo
Kerry(Dem) - 46 % - n.a.
Bush (Rep) - 48% - n.a.

I'm a little disappointed. Statistically, this is no movement at all. Is there such a thing as a convention bounce anymore?

[Mortos]

1. I made the same point to a conservative

radio talk show host. There are no "big bounces" anymore. But the conservatives keep pounding out this big lie that unless Kerry gets a big bounce after the convention, he has failed. They did the same thing after Edwards was picked as VP. The predict this large increase in the polls and when their own prediction does not happen they can then trumpet how big a loser Kerry is. It is a self fulfilling failure prophecy. Don't buy it.

Here is how to look at it logically and how to explain it to the asinine conservative pundits.

If Kerry has 51% and bush has 45% that equals 96% of potential voters leaving only 4% undecided. If Kerry receives a 1% increase in support, that equals 25% of the undecided voters swinging to Kerry. In the Newsweek poll, bush also lost 1% (25%) of his support from undecideds. I know math is hard for conservatives, but whoop this out on them next time they start talking this no bounce crap.

[Catt03]

2. Does this make a difference?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2125916

The analysis makes sense....that it is too early. Is this not likely to be the case?

[Toots]

3. Hell I'm still bouncing

:silly: