Who do you believe? These 10 polls or CNN?

TruthIsAll

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 11:49 AM
Original message

Who do you believe? These 10 polls or CNN?

		
Trust me. I know polls. CNN/Gallup are bogus shills for Bush.

10 POLL AVERAGE:  
IBD,ABC,NWK, ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME					
	Actual Polling Data	Projected Polling Data			
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20	
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75	
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60	
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36	
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28	
July	48.80	44.60	4.20	53.42	46.58	6.84

AVG	47.76	44.75	3.01	53.00	47.00	6.00



CNN								
Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	
Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6	
Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8	
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	
June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	
July	47	50	-3	49.1	50.9	-1.8									
Avg	48.33	48.33	0.00	50.67	49.33	1.33

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

BeatleBoot

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:06 PM
Response to Original message

1. Zogby

Hands Down

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

KittyWampus

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:10 PM
Response to Original message

2. TruthIsAll, A Long Time DU'er Who Used To Work In Polling

(Gallup before it took a dive) recommends Pew as having most integrity.

Someday... is it possible to put Pew's numbers into your program rather than average all the numbers?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

TruthIsAll

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:24 PM
Original message

Here are all the individual polls

						Probability Kerry	
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Actual	Proj.
IBD								
Jan 								
Feb	44	41	3	54.5	45.5	9.0	72.2%	93.3%
Mar	45	43	2	53.4	46.6	6.8	64.8%	87.1%
Apr	40	44	-4	51.2	48.8	2.4	21.4%	65.5%
May	43	42	1	53.5	46.5	7.0	57.8%	87.8%
June	43	44	-1	52.1	47.9	4.2	42.4%	75.8%
July	46	43	3	53.7	46.3	7.4	71.3%	89.1%
								
IBD	43.50	42.83	0.67	53.07	46.93	6.13	55.1%	84.7%
								
ABC								
Jan 								
Feb	52	43	9	55.5	44.5	11.0	94.3%	96.7%
Mar	53	44	9	55.1	44.9	10.2	93.9%	95.5%
Apr	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	63.6%	72.6%
June	53	45	8	54.4	45.6	8.8	91.3%	92.9%
July	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
								
ABC	50.50	46.17	4.33	52.83	47.17	5.67	77.3%	82.8%
								
AP								
Jan 	37	54	-17	43.3	56.7	-13.4	0.1%	1.3%
Feb								
Mar	45	46	-1	51.3	48.7	2.6	42.7%	66.8%
Apr	44	45	-1	51.7	48.3	3.4	42.6%	71.5%
May	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4	28.7%	59.2%
June								
July	45	49	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6	23.9%	39.5%
								
AP	44.25	46.50	-2.25	50.73	49.28	1.45	34.0%	59.5%
								
NWK								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2	2.4%	8.6%
Feb	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
Mar	48	45	3	52.9	47.1	5.8	70.5%	83.3%
Apr	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8	89.5%	94.9%
May	46	45	1	52.3	47.7	4.6	57.3%	77.8%
June								
July	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6	91.8%	94.5%
								
NWK	49.20	44.40	4.80	53.68	46.32	7.36	80.4%	89.0%
								
ARG								
Jan 	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
Feb	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
Mar	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8	89.5%	94.9%
Apr	50	44	6	54.2	45.8	8.4	85.6%	91.9%
May	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6	70.9%	86.4%
June	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
July	47	45	2	52.6	47.4	5.2	64.1%	80.7%
								
ARG	48.33	44.67	3.67	53.23	46.77	6.47	74.4%	85.9%
								
NBC								
Jan 	35	54	-19	42.7	57.3	-14.6	0.0%	0.7%
Feb								
Mar	45	47	-2	50.6	49.4	1.2	35.9%	57.9%
Apr								
May	42	46	-4	50.4	49.6	0.8	22.4%	55.3%
June	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	65.5%
July	54	43	11	56.1	43.9	12.2	97.1%	97.9%
								
NBC	47.00	45.75	1.25	52.08	47.93	4.15	58.9%	75.5%
								
FOX								
Jan 	32	54	-22	41.8	58.2	-16.4	0.0%	0.3%
Feb	43	47	-4	50.0	50.0	0.0	22.9%	50.0%
Mar	44	44	0	52.4	47.6	4.8	50.0%	78.8%
Apr	42	43	-1	52.5	47.5	5.0	42.2%	79.8%
May	42	42	0	53.2	46.8	6.4	50.0%	85.7%
June	42	48	-6	49.0	51.0	-2.0	13.3%	36.9%
July	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4	57.4%	81.6%
								
FOX	43.00	44.67	-1.67	51.63	48.37	3.27	37.6%	70.7%
								
CBS								
Jan 	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
Feb	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
Mar	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
Apr	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
May	49	41	8	56.0	44.0	12.0	93.1%	97.7%
June	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4	57.4%	81.6%
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8	81.5%	90.3%
								
CBS	47.67	43.50	4.17	53.85	46.15	7.70	77.7%	90.0%
								
CNN								
Jan 	43	55	-12	44.4	55.6	-11.2	2.1%	3.1%
Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6	91.8%	94.5%
Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8	19.5%	26.3%
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	63.6%	72.6%
June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
July	47	50	-3	49.1	50.9	-1.8	30.3%	38.2%
								
CNN	48.33	48.33	0.00	50.67	49.33	1.33	50.0%	58.8%
								
PEW								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2	2.4%	8.6%
Feb	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	65.5%
Mar	48	44	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	76.6%	88.5%
Apr	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
May	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
June	46	48	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4	36.1%	52.7%
July	46	44	2	53.0	47.0	6.0	64.4%	84.1%
								
PEW	47.33	45.67	1.67	52.23	47.77	4.47	61.7%	77.2%
								
LA Times								
Jan 								
Feb								
Mar								
Apr	49	46	3	52.5	47.5	5.0	70.1%	79.8%
May								
June	51	44	7	54.5	45.5	9.0	89.0%	93.3%
July	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
								
LA Times	49.33	45.33	4.00	53.07	46.93	6.13	75.9%	84.7%
								
ZOGBY								
Jan								
Feb								
Mar	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
Apr	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6	70.9%	86.4%
May	47	42	5	54.7	45.3	9.4	82.5%	94.1%
June	44	42	2	53.8	46.2	7.6	65.1%	89.7%
July	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
								
ZOGBY	46.80	43.40	3.40	53.66	46.34	7.32	73.5%	88.9%
								
TIME								
Jan	43	54	-11	45.1	54.9	-9.8	2.9%	5.1%
Feb	48	50	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2	36.7%	42.1%
Mar								
Apr								
May	51	46	5	53.1	46.9	6.2	80.5%	84.9%
June								
July	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
								
TIME	49.67	47.00	2.67	52.00	48.00	4.00	67.7%	74.8%

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

TruthIsAll

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. Here are all the individual polls

						Probability Kerry	
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Actual	Proj.
IBD								
Jan 								
Feb	44	41	3	54.5	45.5	9.0	72.2%	93.3%
Mar	45	43	2	53.4	46.6	6.8	64.8%	87.1%
Apr	40	44	-4	51.2	48.8	2.4	21.4%	65.5%
May	43	42	1	53.5	46.5	7.0	57.8%	87.8%
June	43	44	-1	52.1	47.9	4.2	42.4%	75.8%
July	46	43	3	53.7	46.3	7.4	71.3%	89.1%
								
IBD	43.50	42.83	0.67	53.07	46.93	6.13	55.1%	84.7%
								
ABC								
Jan 								
Feb	52	43	9	55.5	44.5	11.0	94.3%	96.7%
Mar	53	44	9	55.1	44.9	10.2	93.9%	95.5%
Apr	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	63.6%	72.6%
June	53	45	8	54.4	45.6	8.8	91.3%	92.9%
July	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
								
ABC	50.50	46.17	4.33	52.83	47.17	5.67	77.3%	82.8%
								
AP								
Jan 	37	54	-17	43.3	56.7	-13.4	0.1%	1.3%
Feb								
Mar	45	46	-1	51.3	48.7	2.6	42.7%	66.8%
Apr	44	45	-1	51.7	48.3	3.4	42.6%	71.5%
May	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4	28.7%	59.2%
June								
July	45	49	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6	23.9%	39.5%
								
AP	44.25	46.50	-2.25	50.73	49.28	1.45	34.0%	59.5%
								
NWK								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2	2.4%	8.6%
Feb	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
Mar	48	45	3	52.9	47.1	5.8	70.5%	83.3%
Apr	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8	89.5%	94.9%
May	46	45	1	52.3	47.7	4.6	57.3%	77.8%
June								
July	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6	91.8%	94.5%
								
NWK	49.20	44.40	4.80	53.68	46.32	7.36	80.4%	89.0%
								
ARG								
Jan 	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
Feb	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
Mar	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8	89.5%	94.9%
Apr	50	44	6	54.2	45.8	8.4	85.6%	91.9%
May	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6	70.9%	86.4%
June	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
July	47	45	2	52.6	47.4	5.2	64.1%	80.7%
								
ARG	48.33	44.67	3.67	53.23	46.77	6.47	74.4%	85.9%
								
NBC								
Jan 	35	54	-19	42.7	57.3	-14.6	0.0%	0.7%
Feb								
Mar	45	47	-2	50.6	49.4	1.2	35.9%	57.9%
Apr								
May	42	46	-4	50.4	49.6	0.8	22.4%	55.3%
June	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	65.5%
July	54	43	11	56.1	43.9	12.2	97.1%	97.9%
								
NBC	47.00	45.75	1.25	52.08	47.93	4.15	58.9%	75.5%
								
FOX								
Jan 	32	54	-22	41.8	58.2	-16.4	0.0%	0.3%
Feb	43	47	-4	50.0	50.0	0.0	22.9%	50.0%
Mar	44	44	0	52.4	47.6	4.8	50.0%	78.8%
Apr	42	43	-1	52.5	47.5	5.0	42.2%	79.8%
May	42	42	0	53.2	46.8	6.4	50.0%	85.7%
June	42	48	-6	49.0	51.0	-2.0	13.3%	36.9%
July	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4	57.4%	81.6%
								
FOX	43.00	44.67	-1.67	51.63	48.37	3.27	37.6%	70.7%
								
CBS								
Jan 	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
Feb	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
Mar	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
Apr	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
May	49	41	8	56.0	44.0	12.0	93.1%	97.7%
June	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4	57.4%	81.6%
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8	81.5%	90.3%
								
CBS	47.67	43.50	4.17	53.85	46.15	7.70	77.7%	90.0%
								
CNN								
Jan 	43	55	-12	44.4	55.6	-11.2	2.1%	3.1%
Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6	91.8%	94.5%
Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8	19.5%	26.3%
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	63.6%	72.6%
June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2	43.2%	51.3%
July	47	50	-3	49.1	50.9	-1.8	30.3%	38.2%
								
CNN	48.33	48.33	0.00	50.67	49.33	1.33	50.0%	58.8%
								
PEW								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2	2.4%	8.6%
Feb	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	65.5%
Mar	48	44	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	76.6%	88.5%
Apr	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8	57.1%	73.7%
May	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
June	46	48	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4	36.1%	52.7%
July	46	44	2	53.0	47.0	6.0	64.4%	84.1%
								
PEW	47.33	45.67	1.67	52.23	47.77	4.47	61.7%	77.2%
								
LA Times								
Jan 								
Feb								
Mar								
Apr	49	46	3	52.5	47.5	5.0	70.1%	79.8%
May								
June	51	44	7	54.5	45.5	9.0	89.0%	93.3%
July	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
								
LA Times	49.33	45.33	4.00	53.07	46.93	6.13	75.9%	84.7%
								
ZOGBY								
Jan								
Feb								
Mar	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	63.9%	76.8%
Apr	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6	70.9%	86.4%
May	47	42	5	54.7	45.3	9.4	82.5%	94.1%
June	44	42	2	53.8	46.2	7.6	65.1%	89.7%
July	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6	82.0%	92.4%
								
ZOGBY	46.80	43.40	3.40	53.66	46.34	7.32	73.5%	88.9%
								
TIME								
Jan	43	54	-11	45.1	54.9	-9.8	2.9%	5.1%
Feb	48	50	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2	36.7%	42.1%
Mar								
Apr								
May	51	46	5	53.1	46.9	6.2	80.5%	84.9%
June								
July	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0	81.0%	87.8%
								
TIME	49.67	47.00	2.67	52.00	48.00	4.00	67.7%	74.8%

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ayeshahaqqiqa

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:12 PM
Response to Original message

3. You are absolutely right!

It ticked me off when, at the end of the Kerry/Edwards interview, Wolf "Mediawhore" made sure the viewers knew the latest CNN poll.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

merh

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:14 PM
Response to Original message

4. Thanks for the post - of course we believe the info you provide

CNN & Wolfie are just a couple of liars.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

proud patriot

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:23 PM
Response to Original message

5. since I took part in the Zogby poll

I trust it .

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

calimary

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. You have an excellent point. I participate in the Zogby poll, myself,

so I KNOW they don't focus exclusively on bush partisans.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

demosincebirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sun Aug-01-04 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. Zogby, in 2000, was only...

less than 1% off. It has alway been the poll that comes the closest to the final count.

I'll take Zogby anytime

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DU AdBot (1000+ posts)

Thu May 02nd 2024, 05:06 AM
Response to Original message

Advertisements [?]

Top

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.