Tee Hee Now Gallup say's Kerry is now tied in RV

[59millionmorons]

I can't stop laughing.

[vi5]

1. RV?

[rkc3]

5. Registered Voters?

[democratreformed]

19. Whew!

I thought I was a complete idiot when I didn't know what RV was. I'm glad some other ppl. didn't know either.

[City Lights]

23. Like me. :-)

Knowing it's Gallup, thinking they were polling RV owners didn't seem too far of a stretch. :evilgrin:

[democratreformed]

24. He he.

That was my first guess too :)

[Frodo]

2. That's not good. Are you sure you have that right??

He was 3% AHEAD among RV in the poll from this weekend.

Is this supposed to be the follow-up data???

[59millionmorons]

8. Yes thats right

Now they are saying he lost the 3 point lead they reported yesterday.

[Frodo]

14. Are they reporting it as the new poll? Because he WAS tied on RVs in

the three-way matchup.

[City Lights]

3. RV? Recreational vehicles?

Please fill me in.

[MissB]

6. registered voters, I think (nt)

[calico1]

7. Registered Voters.

[rocktivity]

9. RV is for registered voters, LV is for likely voters

The pollsters make a differentiation between the two. I'm sure one of our more statistically correct DU-ers can explain why.

:headbang:
rocknation

[liberalnurse]

4. CNN is whoring for *bush right now.

Polls show no bounce for Kerry....worst since 72.......democrats must be frustrated.....



Inside Politics really should be called inside the *bush administration.

[kainah]

12. And the fine print....

yesterday, after also hyping this poll on Late Edition, they were running the figures in the crawl and that revealed that their sample of registered voters was about 650 voters..... That is way too small a sample to be considered a good poll.

[West Coast Democrat]

18. That's right. The likely voter poll was based on around 700 respondents

whereas the Registered voter poll was based on 916 respondents. No wonder Kerry did better in the poll with the larger sampling.

On this page under survey methods
http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12565

[gasperc]

10. wait for tonite's ABCnews poll, it'll be an eyepopper for Kerry

Gallup polls have sucked for awhile

[MidwestTransplant]

17. What time does that come out?

[gasperc]

20. probably just before the 6:30 newscast

keep checking ABCs the note on their website

[Frodo]

26. It's already leaked out a bit

Reports of a couple guys on Fox (grain-of-salt warning inserted here) talking about a bounce "within the margin or error" (i.e. 1,2,3% bounce similar to the Newsweek poll).

The interesting thing to note will be the makeup of the ABC/WPost poll. They have had almost 8% swings in the D/R makeup (with an expected effect on the bottom line numbers). If they show a 2% bump, but 4% more Republicans, we'll know how to read it. Conversly, an increase in D's in the polling sample will eat in to any "bounce".

[Az_lefty]

11. He's tied in Right Virginia?

:wtf:

[TheDebbieDee]

22. Hahahahahahahahaha! eom

[SaveElmer]

13. Typically shallow reporting

No regard for true analysis of fact, simply going for the simlistic soundbite. Not even worth watching!

[andino]

15. Is there any poll that would be right?

I just keep in mind that 50% of republicans are likely to vote and 68% democrats are likely.

This election will be all about turnout.

[Poiuyt]

25. Where did you get those figures?

[DemMother]

16. Sometimes they call a three-point difference a tie...

but usually only when Kerry is ahead.

[qanda]

21. Have they ever reported on a poll that wasn't yet finished...

I guess they had to find the number they needed to ensure Kerry had NO bounce. They really weren't even reporting the RV number before now-- all I kept hearing was the likely voter numbers. Oh well, so much for the liberal media.

[Frodo]

29. Not quite. They reported all SIX numbers

National adults, Registered, and Likely voters on both the 2-way and the 3-way race.

And it wasn't an "unfinished" poll so much as an apparent statistical anomaly (you would expect SOME bounce from a convention where the biggest errors were whether the balloons came down on time). Seeing the anomalous results, they decided (as polling firms often do) to re-sample and double check their results.

[kentuck]

27. Polls are psychological...

Can't people see how they are fucking with your heads??

[annxburns]

28. ABC News will not show a bounce imo ...

.... again, Kerry got no bounce because he is already in such good position. There are only hardened undecideds left and they ALWAYS, not sometimes, ALWAYS break late.

Relax about the polls. Look at history. The only polls that will count are the ones a few weeks after the republican convention. Until then, they will bounce around a little but they will basically show a 45/45/10 split until October ...

[Frodo]

30. I've read that a couple times now... what the heck is

a "hardened" undecided?

They really really really don't know who to vote for?

In past elections, we called these people "the ones who stayed home".