http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10250-2004Jul23.htmlMatthew Dowd, chief strategist for Bush's reelection campaign, said earlier this month that the Democrats should have a lead of more than 15 percentage points coming out of the convention. (Most polls show Kerry with a slight edge now.) Dowd based that figure on the average amount of support challengers have picked up after announcing their vice presidential pick and after the convention in every presidential race since 1976. Bush campaign officials stuck by Dowd's number last week.
In a memo on the subject, Dowd cited a bullish comment made by Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe on CBS's "Face the Nation" on July 4: "I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from 8 to 12 points up" when the convention ends.
Not gonna happen, Democrats say.
Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says that Kerry has already gotten his bounce -- he's consolidated Democratic support (there aren't many "swing" voters left to convince), which has left him in a far stronger position than most challengers have been going into their conventions. Mellman points out that since 1956, incumbent presidents have held an average lead of 16 points in preconvention polls, which means Kerry is ahead of the typical benchmark.
In a memo replying to Dowd, Mellman suggests that the pressure is actually on Bush. Only three sitting presidents over the past 50 years have been behind in the polls after the challenger's convention, he says. And all three (George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald R. Ford) lost.