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Before anyone flames, I'm not comparing them in terms of qualifications or ability. It's just that Schwarzenegger is failing - I think - because his campaign is such a patently obvious attempt to contrive a "new Reagan" for a state that is very different than it was when Reagan was elected, as governor or president. In other words, I don't think the problem is the message or the messenger but the audience. They just don't want the product that's being sold to them, no matter how well it's packaged. Of course, the media is still so infatuated with the "Governator" that they don't quite get this yet.
I think in a similiar way, the draft-Clark thing is a fairly contrived attempt to create a "Democratic Ike", because the Democrats are supposedly having so much trouble with defense/foreign policy issues. But he isn't Ike, and I don't see a market in the Democratic primaries for what he's offering that will make him a long-term frontrunner.
If you think of the Democratic party in terms of who comprises it, there isn't any one constituency that you can count on to be pro-Clark. Labor? Obviously there's a preference for Gephardt, but even if he drops out, I don't see why that vote and organizational bloc would go to Clark instead of Kerry, Dean or even Edwards. Minorities? Very up in the air in terms of who they'll support in this field, but again, I don't see Clark doing any better than the others. The Bradley/Tsongas/Brown bicoastal college student/yuppie set is pretty much completely locked up for Dean, even though Clark has a lot of 'Net support. Now, people expect Clark to do well in the South but I wouldn't bank on it. It's true that he's a Southerner, but he's not really identified with the South in the way that Carter or Clinton were and maybe Edwards will be this year. And the whole "South loves a hero" thing is really exaggerated, at least when applied to presidential politics. Being a hero didn't help John Glenn or Bob Kerrey or John McCain do anything in the South. Hell, even with Ike himself, the only states he lost were Southern. Of course, that was back in the Yellow Dog days.
Like Arnie in CA or Gary Hart reentering in '87 after the Rice fiasco, I think he'll get a bump and shoot to the top of the polls when he first announces and then fall back, because his surrogates don't seem to be offering a message for him beyond "Elect me, I'm electable."
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