Iraq: here's my "wild guess" post-election prediction

[welshTerrier2]

first, let me say that i don't have a clue what's going to happen ... this prediction is based on the fact that i couldn't make any sense out of any other possibilities ...

bush never had any intention of leaving Iraq ... in fact, all the anti-Saddam rhetoric and all the WMD lies were nothing but a smokescreen to gain military access ... building permanent bases was always part of the plan ... HOWEVER, they didn't understand the strength of the Iraqi resistance ... they new we could easily "win the war" but they never dreamed that they would have any problems "winning the peace" (to quote Kerry) ...

so, what will bush do after the elections ... some of his key advisors are pushing for withdrawal ... he could easily declare victory if he chose to withdraw ... he could cite how Saddam was deposed and how we provided for democratic elections and trained the Iraqis to safeguard their own country ... or, he could just "stay the course" ...

i think bush will opt for the following:

1. move 25% of U.S. forces in Iraq to the Iranian border ... this will be a warning salvo to the Iranians that if they don't cooperate with U.S. demands, they will get the same treatment Saddam got ...
2. bring 25% of the troops home ... there will be marching bands and all the pomp and circumstance for bush to score some PR points ... he'll cite this as a good faith indication that we have no long-term interests in remaining in Iraq ... and
3. the remaining 50% of troops in Iraq will be "withdrawn from direct engagement" ... what does this mean? it means they will be pulled out of the cities so that Iraqis can begin to handle their own affairs ... however, we will be told they cannot be completely withdrawn because the fledgling Iraqi government is still not strong enough to defend the "new Iraq" ... so, the troops will be withdrawn to the confines of U.S. military bases spread throughout Iraq ... they will remain "close enough" to help when requested by the new Iraqi government ... of course, this fulfills the original goal ... the excuse of "helping the Iraqis with their democracy" remains intact, but the political pressure to get out is lessened ... and guess what, the U.S. now will have a permanent occupation force remaining in Iraq ... some surprise, huh?

so, what do you think ??

[JDPriestly]

1. Good guess

[givemebackmycountry]

2. Welshie...

I think you are onto something here.
I knew they were building bases real quick like.

Just another piece of the vicious neo-con puzzle.

[JoMama49]

3. I think this is a very intelligent guestimate! I also think we

have the power to stop this in its tracks. We just have to wake up the DEMS who are supposed to be representing us, the people!

[welshTerrier2]

4. here are additional predictions ...

nice, huh, i respond to my own post ...

do you remember a while back that Sistani made a "medical trip" to London? i never believed that was the real reason for the trip ... he couldn't announce to his followers that he was going there to negotiate with the U.S. and the Brits ...

so, what deal was cut? the Americans promised to squash the Sunni uprisings so that the Shia could win a massive majority in an election ... and what concessions were made by Sistani to bush? suppose he agreed to not demand that the U.S. leave the country immediately ... suppose he acknowledged, as we've all been prepared to believe, that Iraqi forces are not adequate to protect the democratically elected government ...

Sistani also says the new government has been threatened by Iran ... he says that since Saddam's army was dessimated, the U.S. will be allowed to remain temporarily to guard the Iranian border ... they will also be allowed to retreat inside the confines of U.S. military bases scattered around the country ... Iraqis will be in full charge of the country with no interference from the Americans, but the Americans must be allowed to remain to protect the fragile new government if necessary ...

pretty nasty stuff ...

anyway, that's my w.a.g.

[mike_c]

5. I've been thinking along these same lines, but concluded...

...that it wouldn't work for at least two reasons:

1) The Iraqi resistance-- especially the Sunnis-- will not simply sputter and disappear under a U.S./Iraqi puppet government, so American forces will not be able to simply sit it out inside their bases. The puppet regime will simply crumble more quickly if U.S. forces withdraw from direct engagement, and on the off chance that an independent Iraqi government actually does emerge..., well, I won't even speculate because Iraq is no longer governable by a unified government, IMO.

2) Any reduction in force will simply hasten the puppet regime's collapse, because the present force is not itself sufficient to prop the regime up indefinitely. Think Vietnam, or more to the point, Afghanistan.

This isn't to say that you're not correct-- if the Bush administration has demonstrated anything, it's that it will act on ideology first, and assume that events will line up with their ideological expectations afterwards. Look for more confusion, and worse outcomes.

[welshTerrier2]

7. are the Iraqis really as weak as we think they are ??

the one loose end in your analysis and mine is the business about just how strong the "trained Iraqi forces" really are ...

if they are as weak as we have been led to believe, then perhaps my downsizing of American forces will not be the route they choose ... if the new regime is instantly toppled, they've gained nothing ...

but, suppose that we've been fed this business about an ineffective Iraqi force as a justification to keep American troops in Iraq ... now we have a very different situation ... make sure you check my second post in this thread ... i added a bit more to my initial speculation ...

i really think Sistani is in on the deal ... he knows the Shia will totally dominate the election ... i think, and i base this on absolutely nothing, that perhaps we don't know the truth of how effective the Iraqi troops can be ...

it's all speculation ... but i do think it's important to look down the road and alert our guys to the possibilities ...

btw, i do believe civil war is ultimately inevitable ... and that's regardless of what bush decides to do ...

[mike_c]

9. I think they're even weaker than we've been led to believe....

I think the "trained Iraqi forces" will make the ARVN look like berserkers.

on edit: once again, though, I also think that reality has never been much of a deterrent to the Bush administration.

[Miss Authoritiva]

17. Never try to second guess those who are illogical.

Actually, don't even try to first guess them either. You're right -- who the hell knows what Bush/Neocons will do. But there won't be a civil war -- only because the American media will persist in calling it "factional fighting" once it becomes obvious to the entire world that civil war has erupted (much like Fox News' silly stubbornness in using the phrase "homicide bomber").

Scriptoids

[ragin_acadian]

6. at this point, i think

we're about six month's away from iran.

i saw some posts on whatreallyhappened.com that talked about "islamic" websites registered in british columbia that were disseminating agitprop about iran, you know, stuff like: "12 year old boy whipped to death in iran for eating four day old grapes" and other such crap. fortunately, that cia sponsored propaganda gets pulled pretty fast because a portion of our population is beginning to see the stick that the carrot is tied to. unfortunately the government has more money to devise more sophisticated methods to coerce us.

very good prediction, but i think that bush will probably send the troops directly into iran. there was a line in his inaugural speech that was something to the effect of: "to the younger generation: do not get discouraged about our efforts to liberate the rest of the world"

feel a draft?

[Old and In the Way]

8. I don't think 35,000 US troops will put the fear of Allah in them.

And what would stop the Iranians from putting 150,000 of their troops across from them? In fact, they'd probably want to see this happen. Then laugh when the US is forced to back away.

Honestly, I really see no "win" for our troops in Iraq. If we return to garrisons, Iraqis and insurgents will take back what they've conceded. And I don't hold out much hope that a US elected puppet government will stand very long, either.

Now I'm hearing that the Turks are preparing to invade the Kurdish territories in the North? How will we respond to that? This is one big mess.

Best thing I can see is putting a sizable carrot, say $100BB or so, in some financial holding institution like the World Bank and provide a incentive to Iraqis to form a stable, democratically elected government to whom we can then release the funds to rebuild what we pretty well destroyed there.

In the meantime, let's have the election, declare victory, and get our soldiers home.

[spanone]

11. Remember bush* & his 'tactical nukes'. He takes nothing off the table.

[karlrschneider]

12. I think you're right...nobody seems to have any plan (!) for the Turk/Kurd

situation. Not that they had any plan for any other aspect of this clusterfuck, but that could be an even more significant upshot in the coming months (or weeks even...who around here imagines the results of the "election" will be widely accepted?)

The PUK has threatened to 'boycott' the election, which if happens won't really bother most people in the Sunni Triangle, but would contribute to (probably letitimate) charges that the election was an exercise in futility.

And why did they ship 60 million ballots for a voting population of 14M?

[welshTerrier2]

14. i totally agree that we should withdraw after the election ...

not sure from your post what you think bush will do though ...

as for laughing at U.S. troops on the Iranian border, here i'm not so sure ... this would be a "look we're focussing on you now" force ... it would be an "initial forward position" ... a sort of foothold ...

the real force would be backed up with aircraft and bombs ... as i said, this is all little more than wild speculation ... just trying to "think like bush" ... frankly, it hurts my head ...

[Old and In the Way]

15. Bush is the proverbial Joker in the deck, isn't he?

If there is an attack with tactical nukes, I think Bush has overplayed his hand. Period. He is legitimately a world-class war criminal in everyone's eyes if he decides to let them loose. There is absolutely no compelling reason other than to satisfy the cravings of a small group of neocons and relgious fanatics. Even a conventional attack will be seen by the world in an entirely different light than his Iraq invasion. There is no justification that he can make to support another attack on any other country in the MidEast.

I will bet that the remaining moderate/clear thinking Republicans would immediately resign from the Republican Party and become Democrats. Hopefully enough to give us the majorities so we can begin immediate impeachment proceedings to stop this criminal madman.

[welshTerrier2]

16. what a wonderful thought ...

oh that's just too good ... a bunch of republicans switching parties so they can impeach bush ...

you get a gold star for that one !!!

btw, you a fan of the group "Old and in the Way"?? they turned out some really great music ...

[Old and In the Way]

18. I really can think of no other scenario that works.

We can't trust the ballot box, so it may be the last political action that could turn things around. Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I have to believe that there are enough Republicans in Congress that will decide "no mas" if it appears that Bush is going to take us down the road to self destruction.

Truth be known, at the time I was signing up I was listening to "Old and In the Way" by Old and In the Way. It just sounded right......

;-)

Old And In The Way

Lyrics: David Grisman
Music: David Grisman

Chorus
Old and in the way, that's what I heard them say
They used to heed the words he said, but that was yesterday
Gold will turn to gray and youth will fade away
They'll never care about you, call you old and in the way

Once I hear tell, he was happy
He had his share of friends and good times
Now, those friends have all passed on
He don't have a place called home
Looking back to a better day, feeling old and in the way



When just a boy, he left his home
Thought he'd have the world on a string
Now the years have come and gone
Through the streets he walks alone
Like the old dog gone astray, he's just old and in the way

[welshTerrier2]

19. Grateful Dawg

i've seen a movie (a few times) called Grateful Dawg that was about the collaboration between David Grisman and Jerry Garcia during the last years of Garcia's life ... some really incredible music on there and a very unusual, very personal look at Garcia ...

the movie showed the evolution of their friendship with a number of clips dating back to their Old and in the Way days ... I remember a comment Vassar Clements made about the group ... he was the really straight guy among all the hippie types ... he said something about how strange everyone was but when it came to making the music, they were the best he ever played with ...

fwiw, I'm also a really big Peter Rowan fan ...

[Old and In the Way]

21. Great movie!

Saw it for the 1st time a few weeks ago. It was a great perspective of Garcia just hangin around the house, making music.

I remember when that album was released in the mid-70's...it knocked my socks off. If there was ever a bluegrass supergroup, that was it.

And Rowan was great on the vocals...he had that "high lonesome sound". I was also a big New Rider's fan....surprised, eh? ;-)

[welshTerrier2]

22. mid-70's bluegrass concerts ...

i used to travel all over New England going to bluegrass concerts ... never saw Old and in the Way though ...

most of the groups came from down south ... saw Bill Monroe, the Stanley Brothers, the Whites, and a local Mass guy, Joe Val ... tons of others i can't remember ...

if you're into folk/bluegrass/acoustic and or celtic, check out my favorite two stations:

www.folkAlley.com ... this is my new favorite ...
www.wumb.org ........ this is U Mass Boston but they have a web feed

not much bluegrass on either one anymore ... mostly folk ...

[Old and In the Way]

23. My HS daughter is playing in a local bluegrass band.

Her middle school teacher started a band for kids back 4 years ago. There are about 8-10 kids playing at anytime. It's amazing to see the progress over the years. She's really taken with playing now (violin/guitar)...in the beginning it was "very corny".

The band does a version of "Ripple" that would make Jerry proud. In fact, I'm thinking of sending a copy to Dennis McNally, the official Dead historian who graduated from the same HS that the band members attend.....I think they'd get a kick out of it.

[Old and In the Way]

24. Ever hear of a band caled Evergreen?

The mentor of my daughter's Bluegrass Band plays with them up here in central Maine. They've been playing for about 20 years.....he's a great banjo/fiddle/acoustic guitarist. He's done an unbelivable job with this program.....gotten national recognition and funding.

[justiceischeap]

10. A fly in the ointment

What if after the election, they tell us to get out. That is a strong possibility. Do we then go to war with the "democratically elected" officials who don't want us there?

2nd, what about Poland? No seriously, what about Syria? They too are in the Axis of Evil eyeline.

Joe Klein (is that his name or am I just making that up) from Time mag said on The Chris Mathews show this evening Syria would be first. It seems we are using Israel as a pawn to take on Iran from what I've read. So Israel will take on Iran while we are taking on Syria.

Of course, my prediction is that if we go into Syria or Israel goes into Iran, it'll be a Nuclear winter in the Middle East.

[karlrschneider]

13. Not a fly in the ointment, more like a school of piranha in the bathtub.

I can't even begin to imagine any legitimate government that would NOT ask us to leave. Would we? I can't imagine that either...so the qWagmire goes on. Well it won't be long before we see the beginnings of whatever begins, continues, or changes. :eyes:

[Dangerman]

20. My two cents...

Iraq will go into all-out civil war and the US forces will be cannon fodder as Vietnam is revisited and chimpy get impeached!