Has anyone seen projections of the size of the Iraqi voter turnout?

[salin]

I read (here at Du) someone touting an expected 80% turnout. Seemed to be a high prediction, but I haven't seen specific turnout projections/predictions. However, I had read for the past month of whole areas that may not have enough security for polling places which might result in a whole lot of folks staying home. Any sense of which reality might be closer to the truth?

Has anyone read anything recent about predictions per the percentage of the population that will make it to the polls to vote?

Thanks.

[imenja]

1. 10% would be a success, according to one Iraq expert

Who appeared on PBS' The NewsHour. 80% is clearly an absurd notion. Polling places haven't been announced and many candidates haven't publicly declared they are on the ballot, for fear of being killed.

Did you see the bit on Jon Stewart two nights ago? He showed places where Iraqis were registering to vote. They looked great. Guess where they were located? Los Angeles, Nashville, and Detroit.

[salin]

3. Thanks...

now that you write it - I do recall hearing on NPR that many polling places were only to be announced just prior to the election to avoid targetting by insurgents. Also read earlier today speculation about low expected Suni turnout due to boycotts and due whole parties/slates dropping out.

I was surprised to read someone estimate 80% - but thought it might be possible that I have missed some news and perhaps that it has been my read of the news that biased my view downwards and that perhaps a much higher turnout was really expected.

Thanks for the info - (and sad/funny annecdote per the us registration sites) - and for verifying my gut reaction and memory of recent items per the upcoming elections.

It would be great to see a high turnout. I have been against this war since bush's first public speech after 911 when he used language that indicated he already had intent to go after others beyond the Taliban (durin that speech I turned to a family member and uttered... oh my God, he is going after Iraq). However, with all of the devastation which has been wrought on all sides of the conflict - it would be nice (though to me it seems doubtful at this point in time) for some good to arise.

[imenja]

7. a Bush administration source?

I haven't seen that 80% report, but my guess is it comes from an administration spokesperson.

[salin]

8. it was conjecture

actually an assertion as part of a larger argument, that I read at DU. Could be that the person was touting numbers heard from an admin related source... unwittingly of course ;-)

[ET Awful]

2. Air America Radio News was saying 50% or less this morning

in their reports.

Those secret polling places aren't so secret either, as two of them were attacked in the past 24 hours.

They also reported that potential voters are being threatened with beheading of them and their children if they vote.

It's going to be a bloody few days.

Also - of the Iraqis eligible to vote that live in the US and other countries, only 25% registered as of the last report I saw.

[salin]

4. bloody

and tragic.

[KharmaTrain]

5. How Does One Gauge This?

With our elections we have pretty thourough vote roles...most that go back to the first time we voted, along with a detailed census and local tax and other records. We're counted, recounted, sorted and 50% are lobotomized.

From what I recall, there has never been a thourough census in Iraq and certainly no voter roles or other documents. Probably the best population data in pre-invasion Iraq would have come from Saddam's secret police.

So without a real count of the population, any number I see is a guestimate of a guestimate. It flies in the face of fact and history.

Also, I haven't seen "exit polls" or any of the other pre-election hoopie we see here and in other democracies in the run-up to an election. Not only does this build up excitement in these countries, but also gives outsiders an indication how big a turn-out an election will be.

[salin]

10. very good points

and in terms of a final assessment/percentage - it probably will be hard to measure exactly - but I would assume there are some data and statistical data what would allow some general extrapolation of the estimated size of the possible voting population.

Thanks for your points - in the post election writeups - I will now pay attention to any descriptions of how the general voting eligible population vs actual turnout are derived.

[KharmaTrain]

12. This Is All Smoke & Mirrors

When I hear the details of this sham election...the not disclosing the individual candidates or polling places until election day, I can't help but vision a Soviet-style election. When I hear people can't drive or move freely to "exercize their freedom", I see fascism.

As someone on WJ said this morning, "how can one verify the election, when the monitors are outside the country"?

I'm so dubious of all sources, short of the Guardian and a few truly independent sources that have people on the ground in that sad country. The rest of what we see and hear is totally orchestrated to generate some kind of opinion or spin something...generally in favor of this regime.

Notice how Chalabi has surfaced again...CNNservative did a fluff job on him the other day (what's it with him and Leslie Blitzer???) and how he could be one of the "big winners" in this election. This doesn't tell me what the Iraqi people want, this tells me what Rummy does.

[salin]

13. No he didn't... (Blitzer) did he?

Everywhere else Chalabi is back in the news due to a purported arrest warrant in the works (that was then revoked) - which brought back up the story of Chalabi's conviction in abstentia of multimillion bank fraud... and Blitzer is talking about how Chalabi could "win big"... How does that man keep his job? (sarcastic final question, sadly)

[KharmaTrain]

14. Makes Ya Wonder...

If Chalabi was so dangerous or didn't serve someone's purpose, he'd be in the past tense by now. Instead, he pops up at some of the most interesting times...like in the run-up to the invasion, being flown in by Wolfie & Rummy while the invasion was underway to give him a head start in the pillage, then covering his butt when disclosures were made of his contacts with Iran and now this election. Curious indeed.

Yep, Chalabi has been chased from the North since the Jordanians would love to grab him...or supposedly.

I've noticed Leslie has "Stockholm syndrome"...he started at the Defense Department (we was there during Gulf Oil War I) and all but idol worships Rummy, Wolfie and their AEI buddies (his show is loaded with them).

Cheers & thanks for the responses

[salin]

15. Have to admit

that I didn't pay much attention to him prior to the 2000 elections (but for five years I also didn't have cable - lived in a big media market that didn't require cable... lucky me, I missed the commencement of faux!)... but he is horribly biased. To me, his lowpoint was the day of Wellstone's death. He did an item on Ted Kennedy (good friend of wellstone who was supposed to be on the plane with wellstone that day)... kept talking and focusing on Kennedy as kennedy was choking up... instead of commenting on his grief Blitzer kept on with a dialogue (can't remember it but do remember the effect) that seemed to try to put kennedy in a poor and/or weak light rather than focusing on the human grief that was being displayed. Low point, because there was absolutely no reason to do this - unless one viewed it as a political tool that could be opportunistically used... hence I have continued to hold the belief that indeed this is his official role (intentional political tool/mole.)

Cheers back at you - am enjoying the conversation.

[KharmaTrain]

16. Leslie Irriates Me No End

Maybe that's why I'll pop him on for 5 minutes here or there...I'm a glutton for punishment. LOL.

CNNservative put him upfront after Bernie Shaw retired and my red flags went way up at the time. Shortly thereafter they hired Zahn and I knew where this place was headed. Note their slide from these moves.

Blitzer bugs me with the way he asks questions or how they are phrased. Whenever there's a mention of a Democrat, Wolfie always seems to stretch to find a negative tone to how this person is to be viewed, while an almost naive ignorance in defending this regime. He'll even fake incredulism when someone dares to make a charge that this regime is lying or has done anything unethical or illegal. It's beyond the discussion in his world to hold this regime in any accountability while portraying Clinton and the Democrats as being the cause of all problems.

Scary thing is he does it so subtly...really is a Wolf in Wolf's clothing.

[salin]

17. Is he subtle?

I find him so annoying and not subtle in his bias... but then again I am "awake" when listening to him... does he come off as subtle to those who aren't paying close attention?

What do you think of Dobson's growing willingness (since the Enron meltdown) to be critical of the administration? Granted not always - he does come from a conservative space/background... but when he gets critical - he gets critical...

[KharmaTrain]

20. Surface Never Substance

Wolfie's airstyle is quite passive...laid back. The test I use is, "is this a guy you'd like to have a beer with". This wasn't some off the wall poll they took on * last year, this is a long-time focus group test and I'll bet Wolfie shows up high in that catagory...just cause of his almost naive pesonality. The opposite is Hannity. Nuff said. LOL.

Yes, we know better...and that's what makes it so irritating. It's amazing how many here don't notice this spin.

Regarding Lou...I have mixed feelings. He's too pro-corporate for me...and I'm one of the "investor class". He puts business interests that he favors...particularly Wall Street ahead of true social interests. The reason he got pissed about Enron is how many portfolios it wiped out, not why it happened. He's pissed about immigration since it's hurting corporations in California as opposed to being the social justice issue that is. Unless a company gets in trouble, you rarely see Lou want to step on corporate toes.

He lost me in the 90's when he was as much a cheerleader as anyone for the fraudulent dot com boom that was going on. He played a part in the bilking of billions in cooked-up IPOs and other schemes that used his network and others to fleece lots of pensions and other small group funds from their financial futures...much alike the Enron he now claims to fight against.

Yes, he bites at this regime, but only when he feels his Wall Street interests are being threatened...not for anything that resembles true social justice.

Cheers

[salin]

21. fair assessment

guess that sometimes there seems to be so few voices that are willing to take any bushco policies to task - that even though he may have his self-interest as the impetus, hearing the voice of criticism seems welcome. THat is more a reflection on the current state of media affairs than anything else...

[spanone]

6. Any figures would be coming from OUR government.

unreliable

[RobertSeattle]

9. At the morgue or at polling stations?

Sorry for the black humor - doesn't look a good day today.

[txaslftist]

11. They're hoping for two guys. A Shi'a and a Kurd.

That way the election will be fair and balanced.

[spanone]

18. as bush* said this morning, they call just having the elections a success.

So the bar has been set as low as possible.

[salin]

19. That is pathetic

so even if no one votes, but a few polling places were to be open... and thus there would technically be an election... that, according to him, would be a success?

One Iraqi minister (energy) states that he believes turnout might be as low as 25% http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=604591