Preview of the Danish elections

[KDLarsen]

Not sure where to put this, but I thought it might interest DU'ers, since Denmark is a part of the coalition of billing.

I've gathered up a few polls from various online news medias, taken this morning - a week from now, the election will be over & the final result will be available.

A quick guide to the various political parties (though the names should give away most):

Current government + supporting parties:
Conservatives: your allround conservatives - though unlike their US counterpart, they're not infested with Talibornagains. They've been through a lot of turmoil with their leaders, but their current leader, Bendt Bendtsen, have stabilize it a bit over the past 6 years.
Venstre: means left, though they're slightly to the right on the Danish political scale - they would be slightly left on the US scale.
Central Democrats: A VERY moderate party - they would, in theory, support both sides, depending on the issues at hand.
Christian Democrats: Again, a very moderate party, who would support either side, depending on the issues, though they're most likely to support the current government this time around.
Danish Peoples Party: Right wing, with a twist - basically a blue collar party, but with a heavy focus on immigration politics & keeping immigration at a low. Was created from the ruins of the Progress Party, who basically ran on a "no-muslims in Denmark" agenda.

Current opposition
Social Democrats: your average workers party, thogh they have really been in a crisis lately. Along with the Radicals they held the government post from 1993 to 2001. It is widely believed that their former chairman, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, made a big mistake when he called for elections immediately after 9/11, since people saw it as an attempt to abuse the political situation.
Radical Left: a breakout party, that was formed after Venstre decided to work with the Conservatives back in 1915. They have stated that they're willing to work with the current government on a number of issues, which have created a lot of confusion of just exactly WHO they support.
Socialist Peoples Party: a mix of Social Democrats & Communists. The party's board have recently recommended a Yes for the EU constitution, which have forced a lot of the top politicians to leave the party.
The Unity List: a group of former Communist parties, whom have joined forces in order to ensure a representation in the parliament. One of their candidates, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil, have been cause for much controversy, especially after she stated her support of an attack on the Danish PM after the war in Iraq
The Minority Party: same foundation as the Unity List, ie. a group of political parties & groups, who have joined forces in order to ensure a representation.

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There are 179 members of the Danish parliament, and of those, 175 are elected in Denmark, 2 on the Faeroe Islands & 2 on Greenland (the Faroe electees usually remain neutral on all issues except those concerning the Faeroe Islands). For a party to gain entry, they have to gain at least 2,0% of the votes.

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Todays polls, taken from a variety of sources - format is "Party Today / 2001 Election":

Date: 2/2
Pollster: MEGAFON
Taken from: Danish TV2 Website
Social Democrats 23,3 / 29,1
Radical Left 9,2 / 5,2
Socialists Peoples Party 6,5 / 6,4
The Minority Party 0,2 n/a
The Unity List 2,7 / 2,4
Total = 41,9%

Conservative 9,6 / 9,1
Central Democrats 1,5 / 1,8
Christian Democrats 1,7 / 2,3
Danish Peoples Party 10,9 / 12,0
Venstre 34,0 / 31,2
Total = 57,7%

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Date: 1/2
Pollster: Gallup
Taken From: Berlingske Tidende (online)
Social Democrats 25,0 / 29,1
Radical Left 10,0 / 5,2
Socialists Peoples Party 6,7 / 6,4
The Minority Party 0,1 n/a
The Unity List 3,1 / 2,4
Total = 44,9%

Conservative 8,7 / 9,1
Central Democrats 1,2 / 1,8
Christian Democrats 2,0 / 2,3
Danish Peoples Party 10,8 / 12,0
Venstre 32,4 / 31,2
Total = 55,1%

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Date: 31/1
Pollster: Catinét Research
Taken From: URBAN Newspaper (free)
Social Democrats 24,3 / 29,1
Radical Left 7,6 / 5,2
Socialists Peoples Party 7,0 / 6,4
The Minority Party 0,0 n/a
The Unity List 3,8 / 2,4
Total = 42,7%

Conservative 11,0 / 9,1
Central Democrats 0,8 / 1,8
Christian Democrats 1,8 / 2,3
Danish Peoples Party 12,7 / 12,0
Venstre 30,8 / 31,2
Total = 57,1%

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Date: 1/2
Pollster: Vilstrup
For: Politiken Newspaper (online)
Social Democrats 26,2 / 29,1
Radical Left 8,8 / 5,2
Socialists Peoples Party 7,1 / 6,4
The Minority Party 0,1 n/a
The Unity List 3,2 / 2,4
Total = 45,4

Conservative 9,8 / 9,1
Central Democrats 1,2 / 1,8
Christian Democrats 1,1 / 2,3
Danish Peoples Party 11,3 / 12,0
Venstre 31,0 / 31,2
Total = 54,4

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Date: 21/1
Pollster: Greens
For: Borsens Newspaper (online)
Social Democrats 25,3 / 29,1
Radical Left 7,9 / 5,2
Socialists Peoples Party 6,6 / 6,4
The Minority Party 0,0 n/a
The Unity List 2,5 / 2,4
Total = 42,3

Conservative 9,9 / 9,1
Central Democrats 1,1 / 1,8
Christian Democrats 1,8 / 2,3
Danish Peoples Party 12,0 / 12,4
Venstre 32,5 / 31,2
Total = 57,3

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All in all, it appears that the number of mandates won't change, ie. the government will remain - and this despite a campaign that's nearing US standards (at least in therms of mud-slingin'!)

Questions?

[Nussbaum]

1. Denmark....denmark....

Sounds familiar

[newyawker99]

5. Hi Nussbaum!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[cire4]

2. Is it the immigration issue that makes the right-wing popular?

I understand that Denmark has some of the toughest immigration laws in Europe and that the Danish people overwhelmingly oppose loosening them. Is this what gives the conservative coalition its power? Or is there another reason(s)?

Thanks for the party analysis BTW. I'm always interested in international elections and electoral systems....

[KDLarsen]

3. A part of it is, yes..

.. epsecially the law known as the 24-year rule, which basically means that in order for a Danish citizen to bring a foreign spouse to the country, he/she has to be over 24 years old. This was a stop-gap measure designed to prevent arranged marriages. In fact, there's still a majority for keeping it, since the Radical Left has made it clear that they will not repeal it, but instead change the age (21 & 18 have been mentioned).

Another thing that keeps the current government popular is the economy. They have created tax-cuts for all (not just wealthy), increased the surplus on the trade-balance & people actually have more money in their pockets than usual (without any major programs having been cut).

Of course, the Social Democrats, who used to be the biggest party in Denmark, are in the middle of a crisis of their own. Especially the leader of the party, Mogens Lykketoft, is not seen as a very thrustworthy guy, whereas his predecessor (Nyrup Rasmussen) was a popular man that didn't seem so old fashioned. Lykketoft, to me, represents the social democrats of the 60's & 70's.

[Stockholm]

4. How can the moderates in the gov/supp. parties stand

the policies of the Danish Peoples Party? It´s so bad the leader of the Swedish liberals had to distance themselves from this party saying that their policies contradict the very basis of liberalism.

The Danish Socialdemocrats should also be ashamed for not taking a stand against them. In a blatant try to win votes they have abandoned their ideological base and focuses on job creation as a mean to further integration. Everyone knows where the fight is. The Socialdemocrats should meet Pia and her crew head on in a ideological fight. Instead they take the easy way out and the paradox is that they probably won´t gain any votes in this election, just a deeper divide among their electoral base.

I just hope the US liberals learn from this when they talk about abortions etc. in the running up to the next election.

[KDLarsen]

6. It appears to be a "better us, than them" attitude

.. but I do know that elements within the Conservative party have toyed with the idea of using the Radical Left to ensure a majority on some issuse.

The problem for the Social Democrats is that the Danish Peoples Party basically have the same policies as the them selves, except for the one area that is foreign policy. And they were able to pull tonnes of votes from the Social Democratic voters through that, especially because of the muslim scare that ensued following 9/11.

The Social Democrats doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of pushing to repeal especially the 24-Year rule, since the Radicals, whom they usually created a government with, have made it clear that that won't happen.

[Stockholm]

7. I´ll guess they will have to move to Skåne then?

[KDLarsen]

8. They already do..

.. but due to the complex taxation rules in effect, this is annoying a lot of people.

I just read a new poll last night, that basically had the Social Democrats below the 23% line - ie. so far, it's the worst result in over 50 years. And despite a heavy campaign from all sorts of interest groups & the unions against the government. Mogens Lykketoft even had to roll out old Social Democratic favourites such as Poul Nyrup & the Swedish PM.

[Stockholm]

9. IMO really unproductive

They will never win on old merits or help from the Swedish PM (that will probably lose them votes).

Danish S needs to go back to the roots and stick to their foundation and buy some balls to call Pia & her racist friends out.

Everyone knows they will make their worst election in years so why do even try to run a "middle of the road" campaign?

Every vote for the sitting government is a vote for racist polices, that message needs to be repeated over and over.