How does Iraq get a fair consitution when the Kurds only want Out?

[Inland]

I don't understand how a fair constitution for Iraq can be drafted when one of the two groups needs to be the Kurds.

Not that Kurds are unfair or bad, but their interest is pretty much limited to autonomy or quasi independence, not on what happens to the rest of Iraq.

It seems to me that any group whose main concern is *insulating* itself from the effect of the decisions of the rest of the country isn't going to work to make sure that there is a framework for creating fair decisions for the rest of the country.

The biggest minority isn't going to be fighting for minority rights.

I am sure that the US thought that requiring a two thrids majority would require concessions to minorities for individual rights, local control, etc. But in fact it requires only one concession to one minority, and that is autonomy for the Kurds.

[Canuckistanian]

1. Easy. This is how the Kurd in Parliament talks....

You want this provision? Fine, as long we get our own country.
You want these Shari'ia laws? Fine, as long as we get our own counrty.
You want Theocratic rule? Fine.... etc., etc.

[bryant69]

2. To be fair if I were a Kurd

That would probably be my only priority too. But it's not likely to actually happen. Surely the Bush Administration had to make some kind of deal with Turkey on this issue, as the minute the Iraqi Kurds get their deal, the Turkish Kurds are going to want the same thing.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[K-W]

3. They wont get a country.

Turkey wouldnt stand for it and it would destabilize the region even more.

They will however retain a great deal of autonomy.

[Inland]

10. Right, and with autonomy,

the Kurds won't care how the rest of Iraq divvies up the power outside of Kurdistan, including, an oppression of minorities.

[Igel]

4. If everybody's playing brinkmanship--which, of course, would

be unheard of in any country with an electoral system--you'd expect all three sides to publically state the strongest, most extreme position. That's what they'd want. Like a company and union going to negotiate a new contract.

On the other hand, I suspect the Kurds know that if they declare independence, they'll be invaded, and none of the folks agitating for Kosovar or Chechen independence gives a damn. It wouldn't be Russians killing Chechens or Serbs killing Kosovars. It would be Muslims killing Muslims ... yawn.

So write a constitution more invasive and controlling than the Article of Confederation, but less than our current Constitution.

In fact, if the Sunni Arabs don't like how the Sunni Kurds affect the way the Shi'a want to set things up, the constitution's a goner. Remember: 2/3 of the constitutional assembly to approve the constitution *for referendum*.

Then again, given the wonderful communalistic attitude that seems to be the regional culture (and which Saddam, for holding the country together, relied on and did nothing to abate), it's the *real* minorities that are likely to be screwed. Xians have been abused and oppressed for a long time.

[yinkaafrica]

5. The Kurds want a country come hell or high water

This can not have a peaceful outcome
and it's too late to stop it now.

[Inland]

9. Not quite: since the constitution only needs to be ratified by a majority

and to be "not rejected" by three provinces. Article 61, Interim Consitution.
http://www.oefre.unibe.ch/law/icl/iz00000_.html

The shia and the kurds voting in the 80%s--as they did in the last election--are going to provide a clear majority for the constitution.

I don't know if how the governates are drawn, but even assiuming that the constitution is rejected, what then? The current assembly continues in power, and there's another election of just the kind we just saw and the current assembly continues in power. That is also Article 61,


In other words, the minorities can be given a take it or leave it--the "brinkmanship" of the Sunni's isn't going to be withholding consent to the constitution. It's going to be arms, an entirely different matter once the US has concentrated its forces in suppressing minorities.

[Canuckistanian]

12. It would be interesting to see what coalitions are formed.

AND whether those coalitions are backed by the US.

[SnowGoose]

6. Perhaps you've explained the republican mindset as well...

Your line

"It seems to me that any group whose main concern is *insulating* itself from the effect of the decisions of the rest of the country isn't going to work to make sure that there is a framework for creating fair decisions for the rest of the country."

Stopped me short. It articulates something I've been thinking about why so many people are willing to go along with BushCo and the wars, and pollution, and destruction of the social safety net, and so on...

I'm not talking about crazed Taliban Fundamentalist Republicans, I'm talking about Jo Shmo Republican. You know one - an aunt, uncle, parent, old school mate - someone who is at heart a decent human being, but who just doesn't get upset about what's being done by our government.

You can see it in their huge, armored SUV's, their state-of-the-art home security system, the gated communities... I wonder if at some level, they've simply accepted a division between themselves and the world. If the feel that the world is unfixable, and it's better to build a tiny, secure environment for themselves and family, where they can escape the unfixable reality. How would such a person convince themselves it is worthwhile to dig in and start involving themselves in making things right?

It's too bad, because as they say, all that's necessary for evil to triumph...

[Inland]

7. Of course! The republican appeal is that of a lifeboat

It's an entirely pessimistic mindset----the shit is going to hit the fan in some way in the future, so you should make sure you are in the liferaft, and that you get your deal.

[spanone]

8. Kurds don't want out, they want the Presidency and think it's their right.

[Inland]

11. The Kurds want autonomy

just as they have had autonomy since 1992 or thereabouts.