Could Peak Oil Be A Blessing in Disguise???

[solinvictus]

I was reading another thread on oursourcing and this theory occurred to me: if we are facing an international shortage of affordable petroleum, by that necessity industry will have to become and remain local for the forseeable future. America and other modern nations should be able to react quicker to a shortage than the rest of the world. Unlike many, many others, America also has a huge reserve of untapped coal, which would be used to drive industry. If it costs more to ship goods internationally, it seems likely that manufacturing would come back here. Any thoughts??

[gizmo1979]

1. I don't think so

it will be chaos if this actually happens.no one in the U.S is ready for the alternative.

[HereSince1628]

2. Aren't India and China substantially modern nations

with similar energy options to ours? They have substantially lower labor costs.

I'm no expert on ocean transport, how much will shifting to a different fuel (coal?) influence shipping costs?

It has to raise the price enough to offset higher US labor costs if its going to shift production back to the US.

[LdyGuique]

3. Depending on the phase of peak oil . . .

Peak oil is simply the top of the bell curve, with a gradual dropoff. And, yes, it will cause the collapse of the WTO and globalization over a decade or more as prices continue to rise on crude, let alone the costs of transporting it and refining it.

How much peak oil will affect various nations will be dependant upon several different issues. Since the U.S. hit peak in the 1970s on its own oil production, it has progressively bought more and more oil from overseas.

While we have huge coal reserves, business in the U.S. has been very resistant to adding the necessary scrubbers to remove the various toxins, especially mercury. The increase in mercury-contaminated water and the fish within it is causing a healthcare crisis right now in the rapid rise of autism. If this issue can be fixed, coal-burning power plants will definitely slow down the U.S.'s fall into some of the peak oil scenarios.

I believe that mandatory rationing of gasoline per household will be one of the cures to petroleum useage. Secondarily, within metro areas, a change to how the commuter lanes are allocated will slow it down even more. Give the single-driver one lane only. The traffic would drop dramatically and the oil consumption would drop precipitously. However, neither would be popular and since politicians tend to deal with currying favor more than taking unpopular but necessary stances, this won't happen soon.

Although, in places so dependant upon long commutes, such as Los Angeles, gas has already hit $3/gal. If it continues to escalate, carpooling will become a necessary for many and will become a grassroots volunteer effort. Plus, I would expect to see an increase in "telecommuting" for at least half of the hours that many work.

As for outsourcing, I do expect to see a turnaround coming in a few years. Right now, Gartner is claiming that the expectation of cheap hasn't been borne out by those who outsource white collar jobs. As for manufacturing jobs, there may yet be a backlash by the consumers, coupled with rising costs of those goods, it may turn around. Problem is that it's nearly impossible to find any clothing or shoes that aren't imported right now, even if one were to go towards American-made. This problem took at least 25 years to happen and will take at least half of that to get manufacturing plants set up and going here.

[applegrove]

4. Suburbs will die. Red State people will move to cities.

[liberal43110]

5. Apocalyptic vision

I agree with you that Peak Oil could be a bessing in disguide...but only in that I think the human species will be diminished to radically smaller numnbers than current world population (a global population of about 2 billion is what the earth could sustain without fossil fuels). I think our species will deprived of the energy source it has used to ruin the planet...unfortunately we will suffer greatly in the process.

[shadowknows69]

6. 2 billion of us being left is a generous estimate

I like those odds compared to what my pessimistic nature allows.

[liberal43110]

7. Really?

I've heard 2 billion from several sources...anything you can share? I'm genuinely interested, not being critical.

[Solon]

8. 2 billion is the estimated carrying capacity of the Earth...

Without using artificial fertilizers or pesticides to increase production. The problem is that ariable land is greatly less than people realize, much of our own soil in the "breadbasket" of the United States is now very poor to grow in because crop rotation hasn't been regularly practiced in over 30 years. Oil based fertilizers are the only thing keeping food production at levels its at now, and once that becomes too expensive, who knows how much of that land turns into a "dust bowl" and how much is still usefull for agriculture.

[shadowknows69]

18. thanks Solon

you explained that a lot better than I could. Actually starvation notwithstanding I don't think you're taking into account the horrible wars that will take place (like the ones we're in now for example) when the major powers scramble in a futile attempt to grab whatever oil they can and delay the inevitable.

[Deja Q]

23. And as farmers $ell off their land because farming is not profitable...

the land gets "developed" and becomes unusable for food production.

Let's face it. The crash won't be just a crash. We can only hope that we're all nuked into burnt toast. The alternative will be MUCH more painful.

[Spider Jerusalem]

9. Hardly a "blessing"...

that "huge" coal reserve you're talking about? It's enough for two or three centuries, at CURRENT consumption levels. Now, when oil availability drops significantly, there's probably going to be a massive coal-mining effort, because you can make synthetic oil and gasoline from coal. Which means that suddenly, your two or three hundred years' worth of coal becomes more like twenty or thirty. Not to mention that coal is a terribly dirty fuel...mass resumption of coal use would lead to environmental conditions that make a bad smog day in Los Angeles or Atlanta look like nothing in comparison. (Ever hear of London's infamous "pea soup" fogs? Coal use had a lot to do with those.)

Also, I don't think that industry as we know it can survive peak oil. You seem to be overlooking the fact that most industry is engaged in the production of nonessentials, and considering the widespread financial hardship and global economic collapse that are almost certain to come after the oil peak has passed, there won't be any market for such things.

[liberal43110]

10. Industry...and civilization too

I agree: I don't think industry as we know it will survive Peak Oil. I don't think civilization as we know it will either.

[0rganism]

11. More like the fulfillment of Cain's curse

As the oil becomes harder and harder to get cheaply, the consequences of an agricultural system predicated on and catalyzed by the use of fossil fuels will swiftly take hold. There will be a period of adjustment which will include not only the end of cheap oil, but also the end of cheap food, cheap medicine, and cheap transportation. The secondary reverberations from that change will be profound. It means a whole new way of life for much of America. We're looking at a new dark age coming on quick like a tunnel from a train.

All our lives, we've been on the upslope of the curve, we've seen the summit and its many fantastic wonders, and now we're about to take the plunge into a strange new world. An entire system of values is about to come crashing down, so don't expect it to go quietly. First we'll try like hell to keep everything the way it is now. Our society-wide denial will be (hell, it already is) a fascinating phenomenon that will be studied carefully by any surviving historians. The power brokers will have to carefully exploit this to position themselves for the next stage, when the population at large figures out what just happened. Then the shit will really hit the fan -- or fans, cos there will be so many you won't know which one's chucking turds at any given time.

The silver lining is, you'll find out who your friends really are in the new feudalism pretty quick.

[spindoctor]

12. Cold fusion

Cold fusion is not the hypothetical futuristic solution it is made out to be. There are working prototypes of cold fusion generators. It provides an endless source of clean affordable energy.

Let's burn that oil and move on.

[Henny Penny]

13. alcohol

I think you guys are being too pessimistic. Why can't farm machinery etc be run on alcohol has a fuel?

[rfkrfk]

14. steam is the future

there is no reason why agricultural machinery
cannot be powered by coal-fired steam engines.

[Chomskyite]

17. Because

alcohol comes from plants. To grow plants on the scale needed to fuel our machines we'd need petroleum-based fertilizers, which we wouldn't have.

[Henny Penny]

22. petroleum based fertilizers...

what are these? Whats wrong with manure and compost?

[Chomskyite]

16. Good

Let's see em.

[spindoctor]

25. Certainly

Florida based CETI (Clean Energy Techniques, Inc) is founded by the only man holding CF patents in the US, James Patterson. Congress forced the patent office to stop considering CF patent applications, but because they have a fast track for old people, he managed to get several through before he was "discovered".

CETI, now run by the inventors grandson has had several displays of the "Patterson Cell" where they demonstrated that a single watt of electric input produced 1,000 watts of heat coming out.

Cold fusion can incidently also be used to decontaminate nuclear waste. We have the technique to make it better than it was...better, stronger.. oh well, you'll get the idea.

A little googling will get you all the information you need. Here is a good starting point (with pictures).

http://www.angelfire.com/scifi2/zpt/chapter1.html

[Skittles]

15. lol, were you around in the seventies?

we handled a shortage very poorly

[spindoctor]

26. I was around and living in Holland

We had car-less Sundays there. All motorized traffic was forbidden every other Sunday during the oil crisis.

I have great memories of rollerskating on a four-lane freeway. :)

[Vinca]

19. The only positive thing I can think of is that it might be awakening

the terminally dumb, nonwealthy Bushies that their boy, George, has screwed them big time. Between big bucks at the pump and the Terri Schiavo interference, even the walking, Republican brain dead are coming out of their collective trance. Time for a terrorist alert.

[BiggJawn]

20. No, the "Mad Max" movies will become true.

And Mel will be hailed as a visionry and his "Passion" will become required viewing in our schools (what's left of them)

Industry won't "move back" because that would cost money. Corporations don't spend money, they make money.

Why would they want to re-centralize back here in the US? Sense of National Pride? Horse-pucky. they MIGHT move back if they thought starving Murkans would work for 1/2 what starving Bangladehis would.

They'd probably cash-out everything and creat a fat-cat's utopia on Brando's old island. Best we could hope for is to be caught by the Slavers who furnish cabana boys for them.

[nolabels]

27. Driving your Hot Rod on pig farts, how enlightening :^)

http://sheahotcorner.blogspot.com/2004_05_01_sheahotcorner_archive.html

[BiggJawn]

28. Actually, that CAN be done!

look up the name Ram Bux Singh.
He developed a method of creating methane gas (which burns just fine) out of barnyard wastes. Whole system can be made from junk, and when the Great Machine finally grinds to a halt, we're gonna have plenty of junk...

Might be hard to find enough waste in places like Brooklyn, but I'd be sitting pretty out here in farm country.

[Deja Q]

21. Yes. It is a blessing. Because those in power will wage wars to get oil,

the situation will get so bad that nukes may have to be used.

And, no, it isn't a blessing. But the whole picture is a dark one - regardless of circumstance or outcome.

[oblivious]

24. Yes, I've been thinking the same.

When I was in manufacturing, making things from steel, as a rule of thumb, labour was 20% of the total cost of a product. I don't know what it costs to ship steel goods from China to the US, on average, but if it's 5% and it triples because of higher oil, then China's labour advantage would seem to be largely wiped out. But perhaps it will still be cheaper to ship goods from China to California by ship than from NY to Cali by truck.

I know it's simplistic, but it seems it may help localise manufacturing. Sure.