Did the CA "Numbers" Send an Ice Cold Message to Democrats??

[Starpass]

Needless to say, I was shocked when those Gallup numbers came out yesterday regarding CA. However, the real gulp came knowing that this, in essence, was the response from our sending our big guns out there---Clinton, Gore, and numerous presidential candidates. It seems like instead of embracing them and listening to them, they turned against them. What does it say when the most liberal state in the nation would rather embrace a Repuke attempt to screw their election similar to the crap they did in Florida; repukes who raped them with the Enron broom handle; repukes who have created this national fiscal mess to begin with; repukes who lied their way to war, etc. rather than fighting back and retaining the state for Dems one way or the other??? I hope to God this isn't a dose of what is to come across the nation in '04---i.e., "we fucking hate Bush, but don't any of you damn Dems come to our state and bash him and tell us what to do!!". This was a bad message, folks, it really was. When I look at the poll numbers for Bush and then I see this fist in the face of the Dems at the same time, I have to admit I'm really, really worried.

[meow2u3]

1. Two words: Biased Sample

The CNN/.../Gallup poll seems to poll many more Repukes than Dems--either that, or they cooked the numbers :shrug:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. If this is so then the hell with Cali!!!!!!!!

They get what they deserve and I will loose faith in our "democracy"!

[Hanuman]

5. I'd say that a lot of Californian's are already...

"getting what they deserve."

I find it interesting when people make the claim (if even tacitly) that when it comes to politics where the democrats are in control, no matter how bad the situation may be, if you just leave it alone it will get better all by itself.

That's what you're saying right?

35% of the nearly 2 million voters who signed the recall petition were democrats, I among them. I want BETTER from my state government.

I want the governor to be accountable for his failures, and I want less special interest involvement in politics. To me, the governor is like a CEO of a corporation, and I am a shareholder. I will now excersize my right as a common stock shareholder and fire him from his position. Simple as that.

It's not about party politics for me- it's ALL about improvement.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. What about principle??? Should this be the standard that...

we use? If we do not like the action that a public official makes then we should recall them even though no laws have been broken!

Gray Davis is not the only one taking special interest money!

Arnie has taken millions from real estate developers!

Let's just recall everyone then!!!!

[Classical_Liberal]

18. Grey has taken lots of money from logging interests

and conservative unionists who want to build more prisons. They both take special interest money, so this becomes a personality contest.

[AP]

19. I don't think the prison unions want more prisons...could be wrong.

But I think their issues are more like, they want a minimum safe number of employees on duty at one time so they aren't out-numbered in a riot, and they two-way radios with a panic button.

I don't know if these are state or private prison unions. But, if they're private unions, their interests are often at odds with the profit motives of their employers, and, if they're granted, generally make running private prisons a less lucrative capital invesmtent for the owners of the private prison companies.

[Classical_Liberal]

21. They have specifically lobbied for more prisons

and Davis has obliged. Not all unions are progressive. Defense and Law and Order related unions particularly aren't. Oh and just look at the teamsters.

[AP]

24. Do you have more information about that, 'cause I read something else

somewhere. And I've noticed that the accusations about this have always been rather vague. If there were more meat to this accusation, I think I would have seen it somewhere.

[Classical_Liberal]

30. Ok here it is

http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=16751

the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (the prison guards' union). It makes hefty campaign contributions to politicians willing to pass draconian laws. The tough laws require longer sentences, which require more prisons, which then require more guards, who then pay more union dues, which then buy more tough laws. And on it goes.

As a result, California's prison budget has exploded by more than 600 percent in the past 20 years. We are now the nation's number one spender on prisons. In fact, we spend more on prisons than colleges.

Like you, I support organized labor. But the CCPOA isn't just defending its members. It actively twists laws to ensure that lots of human beings (mostly Black and Latino) are locked in cages. It profits by trafficking in human flesh, and gobbles up billions of dollars in the process.

So you would think that the "liberal" California Democrats and the CCPOA would be enemies, right? Think again.

Pay Hikes for Prison Guards ... Pink Slips for Teachers?

The CCPOA gave Democrat Davis $3.4 million in the past two election cycles. In exchange, Democrat Davis has given the guards three pay raises since 1998 – including a gigantic 7.5 percent pay hike this year. That's right: In the same year in which a $38 billion deficit resulted in massive teacher layoffs and hospital closures, Democrat Davis gave the guards a $120 million pay raise. And by 2006, that pay hike will climb to 36 percent, costing an additional $700 million a year.

Further, Democrat Davis protected the incarceration industry from cuts, inflicting only a teeny 1.8 percent nick to the prison budget while slashing everything else.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

36. let's address this moronic article which is void of any budget references

the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (the prison guards' union). It makes hefty campaign contributions to politicians willing to pass draconian laws. The tough laws require longer sentences, which require more prisons, which then require more guards, who then pay more union dues, which then buy more tough laws. And on it goes.

Tougher sentencing laws were put on the ballot. The most draconian was a BALLOT initiative to try minors as adults. It passed overwhelmingly.

As a result, California's prison budget has exploded by more than 600 percent in the past 20 years. We are now the nation's number one spender on prisons. In fact, we spend more on prisons than colleges.

Funny, Davis has only been governor for 5 of the last 20 and the majority of the prison costs rose as a result of healthcare costs which have outpaced inflation by approximatley 20%. California must provide healthcare for inmates and adequate space to house them since they lost a major court case due to overcrowded prisons.

This was in the article I posted to you yesterday that you didn't bother to read before you had my post removed.

Hey...let'snot let laws and court case mandates get in the way of our propaganda.

[Classical_Liberal]

38. Just because a ballot initiative gets passed doesn't

mean laws aren't also passed, so that wasn't really a rebuttal. Your condensending attitude isn't very convincing either.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

39. Your dismissals void of facts aren't exactly persuasive either

[Classical_Liberal]

41. It is a fact that passing ballot initiatives

doesn't mean laws can't be passed. So there. Your the one that takes the oddly conservative position that energy companies don't have a natural monopoly on California consumers. Please.

[Semi_subversive]

42. Don't forget that CCPOA

gave huge contributions to Pete Wilson as well. Whomever is Governor here in California gets the $$ in exchange for political favors, such as exhorbitant raises compared to the rest of the State's workforce. I worked in management at Corrections HQ for seven years and the union pretty much had their way with everything. When cuts needed to be made, they didn't come from the instituion end where the money was being expended/wasted.

The private prisons that are under contract (Community Correctional Facilities) are much more cost efficient, but they don't employ union guards, so the union wants them shut down and the inmates sent back to an institution.

That Davis panders so much to special interests is what is pissing us off. They arrest hookers for what he has done. With great pain, I am still voting No/Bustamonte. But it's only because of the other bozos involved.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

25. PRisons were built in California based on bond initiatives mandating them

from ballot propositions that passed to build them what Davis DID do was give a pay raise to UNION prison guards which are STATE run since he has no control over what private prisons pay their guards...once again...you seem to have your facts confused.

[DK666]

14. Remember that

When you are standing in the unemployment line or you have had your retirement plan used to balance the state budget.


Did you vote in the 1st election ? and if so did you vote for Davis ? and Did davis do anythging to warrant a recall ?


Riddle me this.....

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

20. To me voting to turn the state over to a party that wrote the book on

BRIBERY OF PUBLIC POLICY (i.e. the Republican party) is the ANTITHESIS of what you claim to be your own values.

Furthermore, society is not a company to be sold to the highest bidder and traded as a commodity...all those who make the business analogy as regards gevernment tend to miss that fine point.

As regards Davis, I have yet to see anyone PROVE their point that the mess of the state is HIS fault..leader or not.

The state's laws required that if the state were insolvent the car tax would go UP AS IT DID when Wilson was governor.


If you are all about improvement, then why fire the guy who is attempting to accomplish justice in the largest fraud ever perpetrated against a state in the history of the entire UNION! (i.e. the energy market manipulation which has been MORE THAN PROVEN by Davis, his staff and the Democratic legislature)

If you are all about improvement, then I challenge you to demonstrate that the entire California economy would NOT fall into the shitter if we deported every undocumented worker tomorrow...prove that fruits and vegetables as well as grapes ( wine is one of our largest industries) would not rot on the vine.

Prove that the state's tax revenues would go UP NOT DOWN given that many migrant workers DO NOT collect their refunds.

PROVE that California's share of social security would remain solvent with migrant workers not paying into the system who will never collect these benefits.

PROVE THAT white males females and teenagers will actually (even if they did pick crops) IMPROVE the agricultural market.

Please point out which area you would most like to see cut...healthcare? Police? Fire departments?

Read the fine print..even Republicans concede there is NOT much further to cut.

How is giving undocumented workers a drivers' license (which then identifies them, takes a picture and must get mailed to an address) increasing the risk of terrorism (something Republicans love to claim)..it seems to me it IDENTIFIES WHO IS HERE...something one needs to do if they are LOOKING for a suspect.

I get SO FATIGUED at the ideological ranting void of ANY CONSIDERATION of sound policy.


A society is NOT a business...government is MUCH more than a greedy fucking CEO ...if anything, it makes more sense to MOVE AWAY from the business model..it is a red herring.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

35. You do know...

that CA has conservative Democrats in our state? When you look at the county breakdown of how many voters signed the recall ballot the OVERWHELMING majority of them came from CA's most conservative areas.

No Democrat that I know is voting "yes" on the recall, but then again I don't live in Orange, San Diego, or Riverside Counties (counties that account for almost half he votes.)

[w4rma]

3. Actually, Gallup's numbers have been similar to these for months

8/11/2003, Gallup Poll: Davis Recall is leading 69% to 26%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/calif-recall.htm
http://www.gallup.com/subscription/?m=f&c_id=13765

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. What are you saying??? Are these polls trustworthy???

.

[Hanuman]

6. Is ANY poll really trustworthy?

Other than the one on election day- if even then, but that's the only one that counts.

[w4rma]

13. I don't know if Gallup's polls are trustworthy. Here is the CA Field poll.

9/10/2003
#2090: Impact of Ueberroth's withdrawal on voter preferences in the replacement election.
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2090.pdf

9/9/2003
55% majority favors recall of Davis. Bustamante narrowly leads Schwarzenegger in replacement election. McClintock solidifies his third place position.
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2088.pdf

9/16/2003
Special Report: A Different Take on "Why Polls Differ"
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/WhyPollsDiffer-Rebuttal.pdf

[w4rma]

16. Here is the LA Times poll from September 12, 2003

Recall a Tossup as Successor Race Tightens
The governor's approval rating rises slightly. In replacement contest, Bustamante gets 30%, Schwarzenegger has 25%, McClintock 18%.

California voters are almost evenly split on whether to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante retains a narrow lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the tightening race for a successor, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Likely voters in the Oct. 7 election support the ouster of Davis by 50% to 47%, with just 3% undecided, the poll found. The result, a statistical tossup, is virtually unchanged from an August Times poll.

The Democratic governor remains highly unpopular, but by at least one measure, his standing has improved: 63% of likely voters disapprove of his job performance, down from 72% in last month's poll.
…
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll12sep12,1,1676540.story?coll=la-home-headlines

http://images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2003-09/9364837.pdf

Why Poll Results Differ
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-whypolls12sep12,1,5659431.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[displacedtexan]

7. i don't believe the polls

california has been heavily dem for decades. the rich don't vote as a rule, and the number of minorities has turned into a majority.

neither do i believe that max cleland was defeated; nor do i believe that ehrlich won the state of maryland.

i just don't believe any of it.

[DK666]

8. Dont give up

We need help ! We are being overrun. I have been to rallies, dinners, pounded pavement, called, put up signs but still we seem to be slipping.

[Democat]

9. The entire right wing media is fully behind Arnold

How can we win when Arnold is being praised on the front page every day?

Bill Clinton in California for Davis gets a small article, maybe.

Bill Simon endorsing Arnold gets a front page article, with pictures, and two pages of text promoting Arnold.

What can we do when the entire media is trying to get Arnold elected?

[Classical_Liberal]

10. It says that you have a weak candidate

presuming it is true. California is liberal, and the fact that they don't warm up to a moderate like Davis isn't surprising. It also says that Arnold is not a social conservative, and that does make a difference.

[AP]

17. If you see Davis one on one, you warm up to him. If the media totally...

...mediates your relationship to and understanding of him, you come to different conclusions.

Davis isn't the problem. The media is the problem.

[Classical_Liberal]

23. I don't warm up to him because of his policies

which aren't all that liberal

[Oracle]

44. And your politic's are liberal. ..BULLSHIT!! Youv'e make no valid...

arguments. You just hit and run.

Give us a break as you praise and praise Arnold

You won'tsupport a Democrat in the recall election...

You support voting YES on the recall.

You praise Arnold.

You know absolutely nothing.

Every liberal in California is voing NO on the recall...but because you are a disturber, not a liberal who knows absolute nothing.
You offer nothing but the same media lies and bullshit, as you stick your face in and spew out the same media lies and smokescreens.

California has been in much better hands under Grey Davis than ANY rebublican before or after for that matter.

Fuck your man Arnold!

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

27. Funny, they elected him twice..the first time by a wide margin

but don't let actual facts and history get in the way of what you think...

[Classical_Liberal]

34. He was clearly more popular than his socially and fiscally conservative

rivals. Not difficult to understand. It also isn't difficult to understand that when you are moderate running against a moderate it will become a popularity contest.

[Oracle]

45. Why do you care so much about sticking your face in California politics?

You don't live here.

You accept this recall, paid for by 100% wealthy republicans money.

You know absolutely nothing but what your handlers tell you to say.

You praise Arnold who knows less than the chimp about politics.

Grey Davis is a good governor (I don't agree with all of Davis' policies, no one agrees with every policy of any politician, except perhaps republican robots.) And now Davis is being destroyed by the media and people like yourself who don't know jack shit.

Tell me why the rightwing, bought and paid for media, has been saying the exact same things as you have.

Not hard to figure out, is it?

[Oracle]

46. Why do you repeat exactlly as all the rightwing writes and reports?

This is the truth, all your bullshit arguments are exactlly the same and put exactlly the same, as I read and see in this republican owned corporate media.

I know I believe you when you tell us your a liberal...

But can you please explain why you repeat the same exact things as what's in the corporate media????

[mitchtv]

I know the answer,

but you don't want me to get deleted do you???

[mitchtv]

48. I know the answer,

but you don't want me to get deleted do you???

[T Roosevelt]

12. Just brings into question the legitimacy of the polls

Anybody can create a poll and select a group of people to get any response they want. I for one don't accept that Calif is so stupid/ignorant and so Repub as to have poll results like this - especially given the background of the supposed "leader". Ahhhnold has proven he lacks total moral character, fiber, and substance.

[AP]

15. The polls are probably right. If you're not in CA you don't understant the

media spin. It is unbelievable how hard TV and the media is pushing for an Arnold victory.

And it makes total sense. Arnold is tight with the heads of the major entertainment companies. Entertainment is America's largest export industry now. These companies do not want to pay progressive state income and property taxes (which is what Camejo and Cruz have been pushing for). They really really need Arnold to win so that their profit margins don't decrease, and so their hegemony can continue unabated, even if it means the middle and working class will have to pay for the infrastrutcture which allows these companies to dominate.

The Democrats who came to CA have concentrated their efforts on getting out the Northern Cal liberal vote, which has been very effective. The media sold the recall as a cirucs, hoping to drive down turnout in a liberal leaning state. So far, the Democrats have done a great job making people take it seriously.

And the response has been a shameless, transparent, constant pro-Arnold spin from the papers and from TV. How in the world can the Democrats fight that?

Well, I think Clark is the secret weapon. However, we'll see what happens.

This campaign is definitely in phase two, and a great deal is at stake here, so you can be sure that both sides are going to be working really hard to win.

[Starpass]

28. AP---yep, it also made me realize what this media

has in store for us come '04 (as if I didn't know). Hell, a little selling Arnold after his idiotic debate and he rises 15 points and so does the "recall Davis" numbers. They are in "repuke delivery" mode and that's that they will be going into come next summer.

[mitchtv]

43. Clark secret weapon? Ha

page 6 . on tv they'll mention just after they run a 2 minute spot on the city councilman who just endorsed Arnold and a spot about McClintock's campaign

[proud patriot]

22. Nope

Have Faith

[rucky]

26. From the State That Brought You The OJ Jury

Lived in LA for 10 years. This doesn't surprise me one bit. to most California democrats, political activism means wearing a pink ribbon on the lapel of your Chanel suit.

[kentuck]

29. But did the poll actually question non-voters?

And also, those that are not-likely-to-vote? If so, how credible should we take the newspaper that prints such an invalid poll? No doubt, it will be very valuable from a propaganda standpoint? How many Dems will be discouraged and how many Repubs will be encouraged by such fake numbers? There should be a standard for all polls. Obviously this one would not meet the standard if this is true.

[Starpass]

33. kentuck--that's what pissed me today

Honest to god I think they were running those numbers on their tickers like every 30 seconds (message: don't vote, it's over, Arnold will win). This is the only poll I've seen come out since our people visited and this so-called debate. I was hoping that CA people might have a RECENT (first and mid Sept don't count)poll from one of their newspapers, etc. I know that all the big CA papers today except the one in San Diego encouraged the people to vote DOWN the recount. I wish I had some other numbers from out there. This made me sick. I was polled by Gallup in April and they do ask things straight up and don't lead people.

[stickdog]

31. Gallup is full of shit!

Look at Pollkatz's charts on Bush's approval numbers:





Highest Bush Approval Average by quarter out of 12 polling agencies:

ABC, Gallup, CBS
CBS, ABC, Gallup
ABC, Gallup, Fox
ABC, Gallup, Fox
ABC, Fox, Gallup
ABC, CBS, Gallup
ABC, Pew, CBS, Gallup
ABC, Gallup, Fox

When your poll is generally more pro-Bush than Faux's ...

[Hell Hath No Fury]

32. Don't believe this poll!

I just watched a Bill Schneider piece on the recall and how Arnie has "surged" ahead and the mood for the recall is "overwhelming".

Problem is, the numbers and the questions he showed that were asked for this poll leave me CERTAIN this poll was bullshit.

He was talking about what made the difference, and said it was the debates. Said that 2/3 of Californians watched the debates and the numbers changed after that. Then he showed numbers between those who HAD and who HADN'T watched -- those who hadn't watched didn't change their opinions all that much.

He THEN said that the probable voters they talked for this poll reported that ultraconservative McClintock was by far the winner of the debate!

He also mentioned that those who were unhappy with Davis most were those who were also unhappy with his signing of the immigrants' license order.

Here in CA all that information tells you one thing -- they are cherry-picking their polling towards CONSERVATIVE areas of the state, including those that house moderate/conservative democrats. ("McClintock" and "illegal immigrants" smack of Orange County.)

But the biggest pisser is this:

Schnieder then said that one of the things that the poll showed that turned off debate viewers/voters on Davis WAS THAT HE DIDN'T PARTICPATE IN THE DEBATE. Schieder reported they felt it made him look "cowardly".

Uhhhhh, excuse me, Davis is NOT a candidate therefore HE WAS FUCKING UNABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN A CANDIDATE DEBATE!!!!!

What the hell type of game are they playing at? Why was something like that included in a "poll"?

[Starpass]

37. WAIT A MINUTE----CAN'T BELIEVE I'M SO DUMB!!

So now I have to reply to my own post-----damn, I forgot something. Was watching CNN last week when Gallup did that "poll in Baghdad", remember that?? Anyway, anchor pointed out as the Gallup guy was talking that Gallup did this one "all by itself inside Iraq UNLIKE how CNN HELPS Gallup with the ones in this country"-----exactly what do they mean by "help"?? Obviously not simply a money thing in that they would be interested in info from Iraq. Perhaps this explains the numbers and explains just how we will be treated as '04 looms!!!!

[Loyal]

40. I still think we'll win

When a California voter looks at the craziness going on among the recall candidates, and then they look at Davis, Davis will look pretty darned good to them, I imagine!

[LoneStarLiberal]

47. Partially Biased, Partially Party Fault

The poll does appear to be suffering from bias (as all polls do), but part of the problem is that the Democratic big guns have been going out to California to stump against the recall and with Davis.

There are some losing causes that no manner of association with political star power will turn into winners. Davis is one of those.

They should have been stumping with Bustamante.