Why is everyone sure that Arnold is going to win?

[Must_B_Free]

Because on ONE poll? with a margin of error of %4 ?

I think they are just trying to convince us to accept the stealing of this election.

Are there other polls? Anyone can produce a poll to show whatever they want.

What gave arnold the surge? The Oprah show?

[diplomats]

1. I think there are several polls showing Arnold with leads

but I do believe there are still many undecided voters, so who knows?

[sangh0]

2. Because they're not very quick

In spite of our pointing out how the media lies on a daily basis, some people still believe everything they hear so long as it comes from the boob tube.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. It's part of the "supress the vote" tactics of the GOP

I said this yesterday

[TacticalPeek]

4. Believe everything they see on tv,

vs noting the wide swings between late predictions and real results in, say the 2002 races.

edit: well, you know, the apparently real results.

[Shrek]

5. I think it was the "debate"

He managed to get through it with no major gaffes; throw in some media spin and suddenly the voters are "comfortable" with him.

[Wickerman]

6. Diebold eom

[Brian Sweat]

7. Two reasons.

Some people here on DU enjoy being defeatest. The revel in the notion that everyone on the other side has superhuman political skills while everyone on our side is a rank amature.

Also, the are falling victim the GOP push polling designed to convince people the Ahnuld is going to win so they will not even bother to show up at the polls.

[Nederland]

8. Question

Are you actually accusing the LA Times of doing push polling for the Republican party? Jesus, can we please be honest with ourselves here?

[synthia]

20. rank amature.............

so you are saying that not running a more viable dem from the git go
wasn't a poor decision?

or that slight of hand re the money from the casinos played well?

i am not saying the pubs are superhumans but sheeesh......a freaking
muscleman actor repub may be governor of CA with a second repub in the fribkin race, spliting the vote yet.

that doesn't happen with an astute opponent!

on edit

crap...bear again

[Piperay]

21. It is not being defeatist, it is

being realistic. The "fix" has been in all along and I am not going to kid myself and think that the Democrats have a chance and then end up devastated when the groper gets it. :-(

[Stevendsmith]

9. Because Naive Media -Suckling Idiots Abound

N/T

[shance]

10. Freepfest*** spreading rumors to discourage Democrats from voting

This has been a Repub strategy for years.

It goes along with the bigger stuff like, you know, scrubbing voter rolls, and now installing electronic voting machines. They publish as many messages where Dems congregate in order to discourage Dems and try to instill some hopelessness so ultimately we wont vote.

The Republican party has evolved into a party that, if they cant win on merit, they'll do what they can to win without it.

[tom_paine]

11. Some of us because of Touchscreen "Voting" among other things

That and a now-intimate knowledge of just what the GOP has become under the Iron Boot of the Bushevik Imperial Family.

A growing knowledge that they now freq1uently use tactics that were once off-limits in the Old Republic that the Busheviks have used with great success to overthrow legitimate governments in latin America and aorund the world.

We are ALL El Salvadorans, Panamanians, and Nicaraguans in the sight of the Imperial Family.

For whatever reason (probably because we keep voting for their opponenets) they have no compunction treating us as such.

And for that reason, many of us are convinced, as in 2000 and 2002, that no matter what happens, the Busheviks will "make gains".

[w13rd0]

13. We see that in nationwide polls regarding Bush...

...the majority don't want to see the buttmonkey re-selected, yet the majority also believe he will remain in office another 4 years. They should "bundle" that question with one about how much "faith" people have left in the democratic process, and how much "trust" they have that their vote will be counted or mean squat...

[dfong63]

12. i stick my neck out and predict: arnie will lose

i don't believe the polls.

[Clete]

14. Those polls sound too suspicious to me.

First they seem to be polling Republicans and in Republican areas, so sure many more will be for the recall than in the general population. Also if Arnold is doing 35 to 40 percent among Republicans, that doesn't seem very good to me.

[hunter]

15. I better vote for Arnold

Yes, I better vote for Arnold because everybody is voting for Arnold. It's some ancient tribal instinct. Arnold is the alpha male.

Mind you, this is a carefully manufactured media image, but it is very well protected. Like George W. Bush, Arnold wouldn't get near any real fight because he would certainly lose. In real life he is a creaking old shell of a man, his body and mind damaged by years of steroid abuse.

I would not be surprised if he is molesting women to cover up his sexual deficiencies. (Damn, this is fun! I'd better stop.)

If, by some political treachery, Arnold does win this election, I think California politics will chew him up and spit him out very quickly. He doesn't have what it takes to stand up to the heat of Sacramento.

His "Terminator" image will be destroyed in that vat of molten metal, and he won't be back.

[elfin]

16. Because the expected negative press

piled on so late. The timing was crucial, and I think they blew it by waiting so long. Now it looks like typical Gray campaign.

Watch for "analyst" comments to blame Gray for this instead of Arnold.

[mlawson]

17. Because I suspect that enough uninformed, immature voters LIKE him.

We can never forget that for many voters (especially those who have never bothered to vote before), elections are similar to elections for high school class presidents. They vote for whom they LIKE. Never mind the facts. Never mind the candidate's past history or voting records. Never mind which groups support the person.

If you doubt this, reflect on how Ronnie won 49 states in 1984. People LIKED him, even if they didn't like what he was doing. This is partially how GWB got close enough in 2000, to steal the election; it certainly wasn't the issues!

[bearfartinthewoods]

23. jeesh...clark's name just popped into my head again

everything in that paragraph could be applied to clark.

clark is our arnie......

[mlawson]

24. But it's OKAY for us to have a LIKABLE candidate!

Actually, it's damn near imperative that we do! But I wouldn't quite equate Clark and Ah-nuld.

[chadm]

18. Becuase all it takes is 30%

And I know at least 35 - 45% of Americans are complete idiots.

[Piperay]

19. Because the media has already

annointed him. The news is all arnie all the time, the guy farts and it makes the news.

[Selwynn]

22. I expect all of you to be back here right after the election...

Right after Arnold wins ready to say, "remember when I said the people predicting Aronld would win were just blindly following the media, or ignorant, etc. etc.? Well, I was wrong, and they were right."

The reason why I say Arnold is going to win, is because he is. But when he does, and the entire community is shocked and blown away that it happened, what will be the posted reaction? Will it be a critical look in the the ways in which the demcrats totally BLEW IT in CA? No, it will be blame on the media that was too soft on Arnold. It will be blame on the vast right wing conspiracy to steal elections. Not that this isn't true, but we should have never lost to Arnold in the first place.

Instead of taking a hard look at how we blew it in California - something that ought to make the party utterly embarassed - we'll find everyone else to blame it on. So I'm starting now, to post unflinching confrontrations with realtiy - Arnold is going to win. Wake up now, it wasn't a bad dream. You really are looking at the next Governor. Now let's go to tape and take a look at how we blew the election so we never make the mistakes we made again.

PS - if I'm wrong, oh I promise you a big fat thread of my own title "I was wrong woo hoooo!!!"

[mlawson]

25. I really don't see what the Dem party can do, to fight Ah-nuld.

He has that 'celebrity thing' going, and unless we can come up with a BIGGER and more LIKABLE celeb, he is indeed going to win. And it's far too late for us to find one.

I do not believe that this coming disaster is the fault, per se, of the Dems. Well, Davis could have resigned and allowed Bustamente to take over, obviating the recall, but too late now.

[rucky]

26. Let Them Think It...

If it gets Democrats to the polls, and the otherwise non-voting supporters of Ahnold have another excuse to not go to the polls.

Turnout is EVERYTHING in this election... and we have the advantage.