So, does anyone else find it curious how economy is doing?

[Nordmadr]

the Republican Party is clearly suffering badly. So how ironic is it that all of a sudden:

House sales soar (http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/29/news/economy/newhomes/index.htm?cnn=yes)

Stock market has gained some 500 points inthe last several weeks:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/29/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Improved Job outlook, consumer confidence, and lower gas prices:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/29/news/economy/confidence/index.htm

Perhaps "ironic" isn't the word I am looking for, perhaps "suspicous" is the correct term. I for one believe our free market is anything but free, and find myself highly skeptical about the sudden inmprovement in some of these economic indicators. Seems more like a well organized effort to kep the people passive enough byt convincing them everything is just dandy. I'm no economist, but we have two major auto industries on the verge of bankruptcy, airline industry on the verge of bankruptcy, and stagnant wages for the average worker, combined with rising medical costs, and shit job opportunities. So how exactly is everything improving so much?

I think the fix is in. Toss some untraceable money around in the economy and convince oil companies to play nice for a little while so the Bushies and friends can rebuild some street credibility.

I don't think it is real. What IS real anyway?

Olaf

[zanne]

1. I always hear two stories about the economy....

Good and bad. Lately, I've been hearing two different versions of how Black Friday went. Some people say sales were "weak" or "flat", some people say sales were through the roof. Go figure.

[Loonman]

2. Remember when Reagonomics actually worked for a while?

THAT was scary.

[electropop]

5. I don't remember it that way at all.

Repigs to paint it that way. The economy was terrible in the Reagan years. I suffered under it. What really happened is the same as what's happening now: the economy is doing well if you are already rich. Bush is transferring trillions from the middle class and the poor, into the pockets of the wealthy. So the wealthy economists and analysts say the economy is great.

[Greyhound]

9. no. n/t

[Nordmadr]

13. Thanks for playing. N/T

[ProfessorGAC]

17. Actually No, I Don't Remember

It never worked at all. The increase in the federal spending and increased borrowing, plus the increase in consumption due to population growth accounted for over 95% of real growth during the Reagan years. As a result, the growth was artificial and unsustainable.

That was my first published work that compared those years (in 1987) to any other 6 year period in the history of the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan. As a result of my dismissal of Reaganomics, based upon a set of statistical analyses, and the fact that it was hyperlinked in the early 90's to CSPAN's site, i got almost 1000 pieces of hatemail.

So, i remember that whole situation pretty well. As you might have figured.
The Professor

[Nordmadr]

20. Professor, do you have a good analysis on why the things

I mentioned in the original post are trending this way recently? I would be interested in hearing your analysis.

Olaf

[ProfessorGAC]

26. It's The Gas!

People were freaking out over the gas prices. Now they've settled down. (Still expensive, but not ridiculous.) When people go from near-panic to something "normal" they are bound to have greater confidence. When any major purchase is deferred or ignored because of concerns over the high price of necessities, confidence in the economy tanks. (It could happen again if natural gas prices rise the way it's suspected.)

When things normalize a bit, people get back to their own level of confidence. The number to which that rose (98-ish) is not terribly strong for the holiday shopping season.

It always goes up this time of year. It will fall off in January or February, because that happens every year, UNLESS there is a truly strong and vibrant economy. (Strong middle class, job security, real wage growth, etc.)

I'd have to go back over a few decades to determine how much of this rise is within predictable limits, but there's no doubt in my mind that a significant portion is due to gas prices "normalizing". The rest is the confidence that comes with people spending their holiday shopping savings.
The Professor

[Taverner]

27. Any Econ student would say Supply Side works, in the short term

Sure it gives a boost, and usually departments are given higher budgets....but this is transitory, and always veers into a big crash - like we had in 88.

Sustained growth is only acheived through managed development.

[European Socialist]

3. Throw in one more uncertainty--Can you trust Dumya's economic numbers.

[sarcasmo]

18. Economic #'s are a big LIE. Job #'s are the worst lie of the bunch.

Here in Michigan I feel the real rate is between ten and fifteen percent. Nationwide the real rate IMHO is around seven to ten percent. Once your unemployment has run out you are no longer counted in their figures.

[Greyhound]

28. and the underemployed are not counted. For a gage of the real

economy look at the bankruptcy and foreclosure rates.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

4. Money could start growing on trees

and manna fall from heaven. I would still opt for regime change. Economics is only part of the picture.

[bookman]

6. Gas Prices

The big factor in how the economy reacts is gas prices. We know who controls those.

Republicans don't mind the really low points because they use them as the reference point. The Dow might get up to 2001 levels? Gee what happend in 2001, the Bush Presidency began.

[stepnw1f]

7. I Find It Very Interesting As Well

Remember how DOW tanked right before the 2000 election?

[quinnox]

8. I don't think it is some conspiracy

the economy is doing better but so what. It still is not where it should be. The only thing I agree with of Bush's tax cuts is capital gains, those cuts probably are a major reason for the stock market comeback and they should be preserved. Bu6t his other tax cuts for the wealthy should be taken back.

[Greyhound]

16. The stock market is not the economy. It is not even a gage of

performance. It is simply the result of the reaction of the herd to whatever propaganda the powers that be decide to broadcast. The economy is how many are producing/contributing compared to how many are taking from the economy. How much is in how many hands and how well are they living?

[Nordmadr]

19. I agree with this, I think. the stock market doing well

is not really reflective of how well PEOPLE are doing. As far as I can tell as well, Department of Labor statistics aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

Olaf

[ProfessorGAC]

21. Nicely Stated

If it is an indicator of any sort, it is one with a lag so severe as to be useless. Over a one year span, the correlation of market performance to real GDP growth, Employment Saturation, Monetary Velocity, and Trade Balance is almost zero.

Smoothed out over many decades, we'd find a stronger correlation but with a lag that would be at least 30 months. (Did all the this YEARS ago!)
The Professor

[Greyhound]

31. Thank you for the confirmation. I just don't understand how so

many intelligent people can look at what has been happening for the last 25 years and not see where we're heading. :banghead:

[leftofthedial]

10. "propaganda" is the word you are looking for

the chocolate ration has been increased by 20%

[Nordmadr]

22. Apparently I need a visit to the Ministry of Truth. N/T

[leftofthedial]

36. Ignorance is Strength n/t

[converted_democrat]

23. Can you answer me a question??

What is the chocolate ration? I have heard the term on several occasions here at DU, but I'm clueless to its meaning. Thank you in advance.

[Nordmadr]

24. Comes from the book "1984" by George Orwell. I think it should be

required reading in this day and age.

Olaf

[Nordmadr]

25. Online version:

http://www.online-literature.com/orwell/1984/

Olaf

[converted_democrat]

32. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

I grew up in a conservative home, where I was severely restricted in my reading material. I'm just now catching up on all the books I should have been allowed to read while I was in high school.

[Nordmadr]

34. You're welcome. Good luck catching up on all your reading!! nt

[area51]

30. I think it's a reference...

...to the novel 1984.

[leftofthedial]

37. the government lies to the people, whose standard of living is awful

and declining, about prosperity (and everything else). One notable example is the chocolate ration being increased, when it really is being cut.

The repukes frame messages similarly.

[converted_democrat]

38. Thank you.

Thank you for explaining it to me. I really appreciate it.

[unblock]

11. 500 dow points is rather meaningless.

the fact that the dow hasn't hit a new high in, what, 6 years? THAT's meaningful.

[rman]

12. doing bad enough that all kinds of budget cuts are needed

on stuff that benefits the not-so-well-off.

[harlinchi]

14. Dow Jones performance is directly related to worker misery.

When unemployment numbers rise, so does the Dow Jones; when employment numbers rise, the market falls. The explanations of the so-called expert analysts defy belief in their non-relation to reality. One day, a rise in oil prices is bad for the market. The next day, a rise in oil prices is said to be the reason for the Dow's decline.

With GM, Merck et al, cutting jobs like a sharp-bladed lawn mower does grass, the Dow, naturally, rises.

I suspect the recent rise is just a set-up for a precipitous fall, to occur after the wealthy convince folks to invest in the market based on the recent 500-point gain. Get the suckers in, then watch for the fall.

[BanzaiBonnie]

15. I subscribe to an economic newsletter

and they say the the housing bubble is bursting and I'm hearing that prices are already starting to fall.

And gold went over the $500 mark yesterday. Look for it to shoot up to $550 or so before it levels off. Also record pices for copper.

Hey folks, those copper pennies may actually be worth something just for what bit of copper is in them.

[zann725]

29. LAT real estate section TODAY said "Market still strong." Yet 2 wks ago

ago it was printed (and reported in studies) that Foreclosures in Southern California were UP 15% since June. And that NATIONALLY house sales had "slowed" an average of 15% since June. And that (generally) no longer did Sellers have price-war bidding on their homes, but often had to "come down" considerably in asking price.

We are definitely being crapped with...BOTH about the economy AND the Housing Market. As far as Sales for the Holiday Season being "UP"...I was at several shopping malls in the area over the last two weekends,and found that parking availability within the mall parking lots were essentially the same as throughout the year... EXCEPT for late afternoon and evening (on weekends even). I also SPECIFICALLY heard a store manager at one retail store say in a panicky voice to a sales staff (mid-day)..."This place is empty. Maybe they'll show up later. (UNCONVINCINGLY) ..."They will, probably."

Wake up, sheeple...with jobs being cut and "outsourced"...and with rising gasoline (and utility bills), and "if-fy economy" due to War, and lack of confidence in this Admin, people ARE going to DEFINITELY cut back in holiday purchases.

[Nordmadr]

33. A nice new house was built on my street this past spring.

It is still vacant and unsold. It has gone through two different realtors and the owner/builder has tried selling on his own and reduced the price. This is in a nice middle class area with large (1 acre)wooded lots.

Olaf

[newportdadde]

35. Gas prices down 30%, housing money going into stocks? Look at gold.

Gas prices came down 30% from post Katrina levels to help prop up those poll numbers and setup for next years run up which will then drop again right before the elections of 06.

I think housing is starting to slow down and some of that cash has been pulled off the table and temporarily is being put back into equities.

I think the smart money is getting the stockmarket smoking to draw more people in before heating bills hit etc, should be interesting to see the put volume.

Finally whew.. look at gold.