Warning! New hurricane cycle just getting warmed up

[Thom Little]

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the most active and destructive on record, came to an official end Wednesday -- with weather specialists cautioning that at least 10 more stormy years lay ahead.

.......

The just-concluded six-month Atlantic tropical storm season shattered records, many of which had stood for decades, including most named storms, most hurricanes and most Category 5 hurricanes since record-keeping began in 1851.

The National Hurricane Center's website quoted retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, as calling 2005 "arguably … the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times."

.......

"We're 11 years into an active hurricane cycle, and history shows that they last anywhere from 20 to 30, even 40 years at a time," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. "We expect high levels of hurricanes -- and hurricane landfalls -- for the next decade or even longer."



http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-121hurricanecycle,0,6723105.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. This is part of an identifiable cycle?

I thought it was a given that it was global warming, as in hot water equals hot hurricanes?

[SteppingRazor]

2. It's quite possibly both...

Yes, hurricanes go through 20 year cycles of relatively calmer and then rougher seasons.

But at the same time, this is the worst rough season on record.

[RB TexLa]

3. There are certainly cycles to it

You look at the charts of storms per year and you can see it. Funny there are almost always two years in a row with very very low activity in every decade. This year was off the charts though and I would think it doesn't take much to understanding of physics and such (which I don't claim to have much understanding of) to see global warming having a part in it, how much of a part I'll let people who know much more than I determine how much of a part. I just hope we have a couple of those low activity years for 06 and 07. There is a good 50 year chart on CNN.com and many other charts you can kind of see the cycles in.

[zbdent]

4. Now that the hurricane season is officially over

will tropical storms be ignored at the locked gates of the Caribbean?

"Sorry, we're closed. Come back next Season."