Mitch Daniels... bush anointed... and polling BEHIND Kernan

[salin]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=318548

In the linked thread and article - both candidates have raised more than 4 million dollars... with Kernan having some money in the bank - but raising the rest in the short five weeks since he declared for office.

Kernan is polling ahead of Daniel.

Not in the story is Daniel's potential image problem with a minor (comparatively) role in the "Indiana-Enron" story of problems with insider stock dumping prior to a major IPALCO merger (Indiana Power and Light Company.) That could be big in a state that is also watching another corporate meltdown full of ugliness and FBI investigations re: Conseco (Insurance). These sorts of shennanigans don't go over well.

The thing missing in Daniels discussions - and that doesn't seem to have much of an impact to date is his DC role as Top Dog at the Office of Budget and (Mis)Management... overseeing record shifts from surplus to HUGE deficits.

Note - prior to Gov. Kernan getting in the race... Daniels had the momentum and the money pouring in. The winds have changed quickly and significantly.

[NJGeek]

1. Context?

sorry what race is this referring to?

[diamondsoul]

2. Indiana Governor.

Joe Kernan is a shoe-in, imho, but I'll be out there hitting the pavement for him right along with Kucinich.

[salin]

5. He looks very, very strong

I will certainly do my part for him down here in southern Indiana. :D

Btw - how are the petitions coming? Seen a few float around - quickly filled. Hope that is the case in other districts as well.

[diamondsoul]

9. As Dennis put it-

Slow but steady. It's the far north I'm worried about right now, but I've got some good people who have stepped up to handle most districts, so it looks good.

[salin]

12. It will happen

One thing about this state - we like fairness and we like choices. Getting people to sign a petition to get another candidate on the ballot shouldn't be too hard. Getting folks willing to do the leg work to get the petitions and signatures out there might be another thing. But if you get the ball started - and identify a small group to get the job done... the rest will follow.

You say up north - east or west? Does Goshen fall into that category? They have a pretty dedicated peace group up there... are they involved?

[diamondsoul]

13. Basically it's the whole

top third of the State! LOL Districts 1, 2, and 3 are my worries right now. People are so spread out up there it's hard to get a decent sized group together. Goshen is definitely in there. If you want to PM or e-mail me a contact for that group, I'd be eternally grateful!

And just to make matters worse, the buildup to the Iowa Caucuses is making me a nervous wreck.

[salin]

4. Indiana Governor's race

Indiana - long under republican rule in the statehouse, elected a young Evan Bayh (son of former Senator Bich Bayh) to governor in 1988. He was elected a second term (and then declared to run against incumbent senator Dan Coats - who rather than face likely defeat - 'retired' from the senate). He was succeeded by his democratic lt. Governor, the late Frank O'Bannon, who won two terms.

Now Frank was losing popularity in his second term. Two big reasons - both rather out of his control. First the tanking economy, manfacturing lay-offs, and deficits (as happened in most states - very much tied to the national economy). Second was a Indiana Supreme Court ruling that declared the property tax system unconstitutional and required that it be re-written to lessen its impact on newer homes and businesses (meaning older homes - MOST homes - would see an increase). Gov. O'Bannon tried to get some action, but the statehouse (esp the repub controlled state senate) deadlocked - as almost any "solution" would include a tax increase.

As a result - O'Bannon was beginning to be viewed as a "do-nothing" and ineffective Governor.

Last year the popular Lt. Governor (Joe Kernan) decided he would not run for governor (sending shock ripples through both the democratic party, and through the centrist Indianapolis business community that prefers steady fiscal restraint and little change above all else.)

Meanwhile Mitch Daniels - former exec with Eli Lilly who took on the Director position with Bush's Office of Budget and Management - decided to leave Washington and enter the race. He had never held office, but had the respect of the Indy business community (based on the perception that he had been a strong leader at Lilly) - and he had the Bush fundraising and political team behind him. Bush has already been in Indy at least twice for major fundraising for Daniels.

Two democratic candidates emerged. Former state party leader and DNC leader Joe Andrew (who had never held elective office), and state senator Vi Simpson (who was known in her district and indy but nowhere else). More than a year before the election - the strong belief was that Daniels was a shoe-in.

Then last fall Governor O'Bannon unexpectedly died. The state suddenly remembered his whole years of service - and the negatives surrounding him disappeared. There was a groundswell of support for Kernan as he became Governor, and a whisper campaign to convince him to reconsider running for Governor.

In late November/early December he made the public decision to run. And - as the story above suggests - he is now running even in fundraising and ahead in polling. Almost in the blink of the eye the whole landscape changed.

[valphoosier]

3. YAY!

Joe Kernan isn't a shoe-in, but he is a strong candidate! He has good favorables, a good legislative agenda (full-day kindergarten, economic development), and Sen. Bayh to top the ticket.

Go Joe!

[salin]

6. Bayh is up for reelection, isn't he?

There is so little talk of it - I forgot the timing. I have heard ZERO about this race. Has any republican declared?

[valphoosier]

7. He is.

There are a few republican candidates, but no one particularly noteworthy. Check www.dcpoliticalreport.com/IN

[salin]

8. No wonder I haven't heard anything about the race

not big heavy hitters. Am sort of surprised McIntosh isn't running - wasn't he initially going to run for governor (and isn't he always running for something?)

[diamondsoul]

10. Damn I wish we had a

more Liberal Dem to run against Bayh.*sigh* He just makes me nutty.

[salin]

11. I hear ya... and then once in awhile

he surprises me. I was quite pleased when he held his own to vote against the medicare prescription bill (and Eli Lilly.)

I would love a more liberal democrat at the top of the ticket - but don't see that happening soon. If we can at least bring him back to his left-centrist roots (where he started - but where he has been less consistent since 9-11), that would be progress.