8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: 8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 22, 2008; A04

1. What will it take to be declared the winner in Pennsylvania today?

....Some say Clinton needs to win by 10 points -- which was her margin in Ohio last month. Others say eight points. Some say, given the amount of money Sen. Barack Obama is spending on television ads, anything over five points would be a respectable victory for Clinton. Staying within five points would give Obama the opportunity to assert that he overcame a state whose demographics tilted heavily to Clinton.

But the margin in the popular vote ultimately will be secondary to how Pennsylvania affects the battle for pledged delegates. Pennsylvania is the biggest remaining prize on the calendar, with 158 pledged delegates. Clinton badly needs to make up ground in the delegate fight and, given the way they're distributed, that could be difficult....

2. Has the campaign weakened Obama or Clinton more for the general election?

....Clinton's negative ratings have risen dramatically over the past few months....Obama also looks weaker than he did when he was running the table in late February with big victories in such places as Virginia, Wisconsin and some smaller-state caucuses. Since then he has been beset by one controversy after another and, while he handled some of them effectively -- his speech on race being the prime example -- there is no question that Republicans see him as more vulnerable than they did before....

3. What is Obama's biggest general-election vulnerability?

Controversies over the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., Obama's comments about why small-town Americans are "bitter" and "cling" to religion and guns, and the candidate's liberal policy views have created a mixture that gives Republicans hope that they can portray Obama as out of touch with heartland America....

4. Has Bill Clinton helped or hurt his wife's candidacy?

....(I)ncreasingly there are those in the party who say Hillary Clinton has been weakened by the performance of her husband....

5. What is the most important remaining contest after Pennsylvania?

Indiana. It is the place where Obama, almost regardless of what happens today in Pennsylvania, could bring the long Democratic contest to a close....

6. Will Democratic superdelegates coalesce, or could this go to the convention?

....(T)he prospects for a convention battle appear smaller than they might have a month ago....

7. Could there still be a Democratic dream ticket?

....(T)he prospect that once thrilled many Democrats now appears less appealing to top strategists....

8. Has John McCain used this period effectively to get ready for the general election?

....Republicans are cautiously optimistic that McCain's campaign is doing what it should....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/21/AR2008042102805_pf.html