Dean leads race for nomination in new ABC/Washington Post Poll

[CMT]

Showing that polls are as unpredictable as ever, a new ABC News/ Washington Post poll of Democrats indicate that Howard Dean has a narrow lead for the race for the Democratic nomination. Here are the results:

Dean: 17% (14% on 9/13)
Gephardt: 13% (14% on 9/13)
Clark: 12% (6% on 9/13)
Kerry: 10% (14% on 9/13)
Lieberman 9% (22% on 9/13)
Braun: 6% (4% on 9/13)
Sharpton 4% (5% on 9/13)
Edwards 3% (no change)
Kucinich 2% (no change)

**Dean has gained three-points since the last poll, Clark 6-points since he came into the race. Liberman lost an amazing 13-points in one month and Kerry is down four-points.

The poll indicates that women voters are more undecided than men with 27% undecided or don't plan to vote for the current candidates. 18% of men are.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Politics/iraq_economics031014_poll.html

[poskonig]

1. National polls do not matter much.

Candidates need to win individual states, preferably New Hampshire and Iowa and the following states on February 3rd and 7th.

[Demobrat]

2. I didn't believe them when they had Lieberman first.

And I don't believe them now.

[CMT]

5. true

we got to take them with a grain of salt. But it shows the unpredictable nature of polls. Yesterday Gallup had Clark leading and Dean in fourth place, but still Clark, Kerry, Lieberman, and Dean within the margin of error, same as this one.

[CMT]

3. that's true

it will be very interesting months ahead.

[Khephra]

4. A lot of us thought Lieberman was imploding

But -13%???

Stick a fork in it. It's over Joe. Braun, a candidate most people haven't heard of until recently is managing to gain, whereas you are the ex-VP candidate of 2000 and you're free-falling (and -13% IS a freefall).

I haven't said that it's over for any candidate before, but I will now.

Joe's a gonner for sure now. At this rate Braun will be outpolling him soon. How embarassing is that???

[Wickerman]

6. smells like justice

Braun gains, as she should, Joe falls. Time for Joe to stop sucking air from the debates and ink from the page. He has nothing new to offer and status quo ain't gonna get it.

[cprise]

14. Joe should re-launch his campaign

...standing next to Ariel Sharon again.

[Rose Siding]

7. I don't think I've ever seen a qualifier like this

In any poll article I've ever read.

Snip>
This does not constitute an outright Dean lead; at the 95 percent confidence level conventionally used in polling, it's within the margin of sampling error. Given the sample size, one can say with only 60 percent confidence that Dean's lead is a real one.

edit- TWICE- they warn twice that this isn't a lead. Have they done that when ANY other dem led a nat'l poll?

snip>
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean now takes top billing, though his numerical four-point advantage is well within sampling tolerances.

[HFishbine]

9. But you should have

That statement would apply to almost all national polls with a sample of 1,000 or less. This may be the first time you've read it, but it's not the first time it's been applicable.

[David Zephyr]

8. Mosely-Braun Now Neck & Neck With Lieberman.

Amazing.

[Khephra]

11. Yeah...I love her time during the debates.

She deserves a better showing. Joe, well, we've seen what he's selling.

:evilgrin:

[DrFunkenstein]

10. Where Will Lieberman's Numbers Go?

When Grandpa Joe drops out, his supporters will most likely go to the other "insiders." Braun and Sharpton's will probably go to Dean, while Kucinich people are probably divided between Dean and Kerry (Clark's militarism may or not be a factor).

Edwards and Gephardt are toss ups.

I know that I will likely go to Edwards or Clark, then to Gephardt.

[Sean Reynolds]

13. I'd say Gephardt's will go to Kerry, Edwards' will be split between......

Kerry/Clark.

[CMT]

15. I think a number of Gep's supporters will go to Dean

Dean is doing pretty well among alot of union people, even leading among them in the most recent Iowa poll.

[Rose Siding]

16. I think Dean is why labor didn't commit

to Gep yet. The chair of SEIU even hosted a fundraiser for Dean.

[Speck Tater]

12. National polls mean nothing at this point, unless...

... they show my favorite candidate in the lead, in which case they are the gold standard. ;)

[Closer]

17. Yippee

This is GREAT news! Thanks!


No wonder why the Clarkettes are worried today and desperately hammering away at Dean.

I take it as a compliment :-)