Kerry increases lead over Bush w/registered voters, but headline

[papau]

is Bush moves back into lead - you have gotta love our media!



http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results

Seems Kerry increases lead among registered voters and national adults, but has gone to one point behind Bush amoung "likely" - so the headline is "George Bush moving back into the lead in a head-to-head race with John Kerry". Amusing - (If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: John Kerry, the Democrat or George W. Bush, the Republican?

Kerry Bush Neither Other No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 May 7-9 47 48 2 1 2
2004 May 2-4 49 48 1 * 2

Registered Voters
2004 May 7-9 50 44 3 * 3
2004 May 2-4 47 47 2 1 3

National Adults
2004 May 7-9 51 43 3 * 3
2004 May 2-4 47 46 3 1 3


(Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?)

Kerry Bush Nader None Other No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 May 7-9 45 47 5 2 -- 1
2004 May 2-4 47 47 3 1 * 2

Registered Voters
2004 May 7-9 46 41 7 3 * 3
2004 May 2-4 44 45 6 1 1 3

2004 May 7-9 46 41 8 3 * 2
2004 May 2-4 44 44 7 1 1 3

Meanwhile Bush's job approval drops to 46% (Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?)

Approve Disapprove No opinion
2004 May 7-9 46 51 3
2004 May 2-4 49 48 3


as Satisfied with direction is at 37% (In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?)

Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion
2004 May 7-9 37 62 1
2004 May 2-4 36 62 2

with economy approval unchanged, Iraw is worse, and Terrorism is better (from 52 to 54%).

based on telephone interviews with 1,003 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted May 7-9, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 575 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 896 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[KewDistLine936]

1. Not much of a lead

It could be a lot worse.
Besides, with numbers that close, the USA Today/CNN shouldn't be saying anything close to the word 'lead'. More like 'currently tied'.