Where will our economy be in one year?

[Celebration]

Poll question: Where will our economy be in one year?

Just wondering what everyone thinks will happen to the economy as our new president prepares to take office

[Kittycat]

1. I don't think we're even close to seeing the bottom of this pit :(

[Warpy]

2. Deep recession with high inflation

heading into Depression unless a Democrat gets into office and realizes that business as usual just is not going to do the trick this time.

[Celebration]

3. answering my own poll

I voted for stagflation as the most likely outcome, and I actually hope that is it. I seriously doubt that our economy will be humming along nicely. All of the other outcomes are possible, but a lot of it depends on the response of the Federal Reserve. Hyperinflation would be the worst outcome.

[DJ13]

4. Flush with success

[shain from kane]

5. I don't know, but the blame will go to Mexicans, Chinese, Indians, Arabs, and blacks on welfare.n/t

[Celebration]

6. And this *really* gets awful if it is hyperinflation

Look at Nazi Germany.

[shain from kane]

7. I think that this will get increasingly racist as the year progresses.

Blacks with Katrina
Muslims and Arabs, Persians
Jobs to India
Jobs to China
Jobs to Mexico
And the beat down goes on ...

[Celebration]

9. Okay, our prepared response!!!

You know how all the right wingers love to blame the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act for the Great Depression.

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html

No country did enough to halt banking crises, and the entire industrial world adopted protectionist measures in attempts to curtail imports. In 1930, for example, President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, raising tariffs on dutiable items by 52 percent. The protectionism put an extra brake on world trade just when countries should have been promoting it.

The above (in total) is a pretty good summary of all the factors, actually.

Let's start beating our drum and blaming the new Bankruptcy Act. People thought it would be pro growth when actually it is anti growth!! Look at what happened. All the rating agencies used the new bankruptcy act as an excuse to give AAA ratings to all kinds of debt instruments. Now people can't pay back these debts, but they often cannot erase them and start all over. Thus money and credit contracts. One can make a great argument for the new bankruptcy laws being a major cause of this mess.

[snappyturtle]

17. I agree that the bankruptcy laws have hurt as have the pro-banking

agreements especially allowing for insane interest rates on credit cards. We need to get out of debt and lowering or setting a cap on interest rates charged would help many people and the greedy banks would still be making a lot of money.

[MercutioATC]

8. Other:

In 12 months, I think we'll be starting to turn the corner....IF they start to make the right moves now.

Unfortunately, they don't seem to be talking about anything constructive yet.

[Celebration]

10. Almost everyone I hear

Wants a different response from the Federal Reserve and Congress. What do you think should be done? That could even be another poll.

[upi402]

11. tax rebates are a tepid attempt to stop the coming bloodletting

it's like a band-aid on a sucking chest wound. we don't need a band-aid, we need saran wrap.

[Celebration]

12. yeah, well that for sure is a joke

We are borrowing money from ourselves and then spending (or saving) the proceeds. How bizarre is that?

[upi402]

14. And borrowing it from ourselves at a time when we can't work...

any longer. This is insanity defined.
The baby boom retiring as the stock market hollow bubble; stupid P/E ratios, lacking liquidity,... I dunno
It's something that looks like it will coincide with the Chinese realizing they are about to hold useless dollars and then we have to do the bait-and-switch - the "Amero" switcheroo and maybe a forex valuation shell game.

[amandabeech]

19. Actually, the money that will be borrowed to pay those tax rebates

will come in considerable part from those foreign investors, including sovereign wealth funds, still interested in purchasing treasury securities.

Borrowing from ourselves, meaning money generated by the U.S. economy is not the total engine here.

[Yavin4]

15. Here's What Should Be Done In Five Words:

STOP BEING A FUCKING EMPIRE!!!

Our days of dominating the planet military and having a strong domestic economy all at the same time are over. We can no longer do both. We have to close most of our bases overseas, bring troops home, cut the defense budget, and starting using that money to re-engineer our economy through using alternative energy and developing alertnative, enviro-friendly mfg.

To accomplish this, we will need massive investments in education, health care, and research.

[Celebration]

16. I certainly agree

However, no major candidate is running on that platform, unfortunately.

[Adsos Letter]

13. I had to vote "other"...

I know that the force of events can severely limit a president's options...but I think it depends on who the president is, and we don't know that yet.

[Speck Tater]

18. Economy? What economy?

We'll be out in the forest collecting sticks of firewood to cook our possum stew in front of our lovely one-bedroom canvas home in tent city.

[ixion]

20. good answer

and very likely.

[sendero]

21. One possiblility...

.. that was left off of the poll but is a distinct possibility - a deflationary depression.

I've read a lot about this scenario, and I'm convinced that a DD is not out of the question. Likely? Probably not, but definitely a real possibility.

If that happens, well, it's going to be brutal.

[Celebration]

22. it is a possibility

But meant that to be in "traditional recession/depression prices low"--deflationary depression is just an extreme version of that. I'm trying to decide what will happen to gold. I do think agricultural prices have been on a kind of bubble. I would think oil would come down. Gold I just can't figure out. I am guessing that we will get all sorts of stimulus packages and money dropped from helicopters. If that happens where will the money go? It could go to precious metals. But in a true deflationary depression, the gold prices should drop.