'Disastrous' U.S. labour report fuels fear of jobless recovery

[reprehensor]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040306/RJOBSUS06//?query=barrie+mckenna

WASHINGTON -- Another month of unexpectedly dismal job creation across the United States has sent shockwaves rippling out from Main Street to Wall Street and the White House.

U.S. employers added just 21,000 jobs to a work force of nearly 140 million in February -- well below the most pessimistic forecasts. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5.6 per cent, as more Americans abandoned their quest for work.

The disappointing report sent the U.S. dollar and bond yields sharply lower yesterday as investors digested a fourth consecutive month of subpar job creation. The Canadian dollar surged two-thirds of a cent (U.S.) to end the day at 75.66 cents, while the euro had its best day in five weeks, rising to $1.2374 from $1.2203 on Thursday.

More broadly, the weak labour market is fuelling fear the mighty U.S. economy is in the throes of a destabilizing jobless recovery.

More at link.

[Brucey]

1. Yes, we are circling the drain.

It's hard for me to believe that this will end in November... but I hope I am wrong. The Bush* machine is too powerful, the electoral college is tipped so heavily to the right, the repugs are willing to cheat and know how to do it and get away with it, and the American public is so stupid. Look at the recent poll that found everyone on earth says the Iraq invasion has made terrorism more likely, except, of course, the American public who thinks the opposite. We are circling the drain.

[kalian]

4. True, we are circling the drain....and truer still....

we don't know (and I seriously doubt) that things will get better
after November (IF Kerry wins..).
Realize that Greenspan has cut intrest rates to historical lows,
yet companies continue to abhor the thought of borrowing. That's
the whole basic presmise of having such low intrest rates.

At this time, low intrest rates is just creating cheaper credit for
those that SHOULD NOT be able to access cheaper credit. Why?
because this causes more LONG-TERM debt that will continue to hurt
any potential recovery.

The lack of jobs, or the lack of job CREATION is now part of the
structural damage that this country has suffered to its economy.
Its broke. Flat out broke....and there's nothing that anybody can
do about it.

[rapier]

6. notes

The trend is structural and not likely to be subject to any simple, or even doable, political solution.

Sorry to be so glum. Only Edwards even hinted that the realized the nature of the macro economic trends which underly the job situation and the reality of our finance based economy. There is in any case NO political solution in that for the most part there is not even a hint yet of any recognition of the reality by Democratic politicians, much less policy solutions. I'm not sure there are any policy solutions, or none that would not cause enourmous pain.

I'm not here to bash Kerry,dont get me wrong.

This idea that the jobs situation is Bush's fault is very easy and fundamentally flawed. Blame Greenspan or even Rubin for entrenching the Wall Street paradigm. Bush has made it worse admittedly with his tax and spend policies, and his absurd faith based predictions of jobs because of tax cuts and 'investment' incentives but as I said, there is no poltical alternative and was none for a President Gore which would have turned the tide.

There might have been a possibility I suppose of a long term solution available to a President Gore if he could have influenced Greenspan to moderate his insane interest rate slashing. This would have allowed the complete collapse of the stock, real estate and credit bubbles and when a real bottom was reached a more conventional recovery may have taken hold. The thing is I doubt Gore would have tried to stop Greenspan because if he knew it or not, the pain would have been terrible politically. Too much perhaps for him to survive.

That is the devil people. There are no solutions which are painless. Any solution is pain filled. This little pain of lack of jobs is nothing compared to the pain of deflating the bubbles, which in any case would have made the job situaiton worse before it got better.

If anyone is expecting a president Kerry to fix this your doomed to disappointment. Even a Kerry and a Democratic congress, a virtual impossibility would have no possible strategy beyond muddle thru and fixing up the fiscal situation a bit. They too would end up hopeing we can inflate assets forever to make everyone rich, since wages won't for a very very very long time to come. And if that inflation leads to the continued skewing of income and assets to the top, as it surely would you will find fewer and fewer pols willing to move against it.

[mhr]

7. So Rapier What Do You Suggest For People Like Myself, Find A Gun?

Unemployed for 45 months,
BSEE,
MBA,
Commercial Pilot,
Honorably Discharged Veteran,
Plenty of interesting experience,
No home to inflate the value of.

Per your analysis, I am F*****!

So should it be a Colt or a Smith & Wesson?

[rapier]

8. notes

I cannot, in fact I won't, address your personal situation. I speak in generalizations and that means those the most #*^#ed are the lower skilled already lower income. In general as I say.

The other aspect of this is lack of wage increase. For the last 12 months hourly wages have risen 1.6%. I just heard that stat and I assume it means just that, hourly wages, as opposed to salaried ones. If so it is quite telling as hourly pay goes to the bottom. Whatever the real inflation number is, certainly higher than the official one, that means the majority are losing ground, which is just as important long term if not as personally disastorous in the short term for those now unemployed.

As a general thing I suggest everyone should assume that their income and buying power will decline over the intermediate to long term. It may not but just don't be surprised if it does. It may not of course due to individual circumstance pertaining to their area of employment but for the majority I think it will. Obviously I could be wrong about that.

I won't joke about guns. If you need one for armed robbery that might be a valid but bad choice in order to get some income. As a political statement those with the power and the money have the vast majority of the guns and many of their followers are dying to use them on us. I say that in all seriousness.

I cannot emphasize enough the result, and in most cases the aim, of policy makers from Rubin to Greenspan has been to inflate assets, in lieu of income from work. In an important sense that is the cause of the job/income trends. We are now reaping the rewards of that. The winners have been those eager to speculate , always called 'invest', on financial assets and real estate. The fate of the world depends upon that continued inflation. Can that inflation continue? Yes. Of course. For how long, a month, 10 years, who knows? Every word and every action by the worlds central bankers and policy makers screams that the rational thing to do now is to 'invest'. Credit is now free. Borrow and 'invest' with the money and if things continue to rise you will be a winner.

Not that I have followed my own advice, nor probably will I. I dabble with my meager 'retirement' 'investments' by waiting for good short side possibilites, which haven't been available for 17 months, and going long only commodity based things and stocks. The amounts are so small as to be a joke I want to emphasize.

As a political statement I recommend, and it is a bizzare one ingnored univerally, to sell ALL your stocks. It is IMPOSSIBLE to justify stock ownership if you are a progressive.

Now I've rambled off thread totally. Sorry.

[54anickel]

2. A "jobless recovery" is no recovery at all. 70% of out GDP is

dependent on consumer spending. No jobs, no spending. Consumer credit card debt just hit above 2 Tr-r-r-r-r-rillion dollars!

No, this is no recovery, these are the final steps to a depression.

[Art_from_Ark]

3. "Jobless recovery" is an oxymoron

heralded by dimwits like the Oxy(contin) Moron

[brokensymmetry]

5. The dollar is headed lower.

And why shouldn't it? Seriously, if you had an extra trillion dollars or so, would YOU lend it to the U.S.?

Let's see now. We have a rapidly declining industrial base. A population that is quickly dropping into unemployment and severe underemployment. A profligate government that is racking up ever greater levels of debt. What sort of credit risk is that?