How much will US Dollar decline?

[upi402]

I'm finding surprisingly few good articles when I search for experts talking about an expected decline of the US Dollar. Some articles are obvious cheerleaders. Other articles are too old to be valid, IMHO. Does anybody have links?

[jotsy]

1. Have you found DU's own weekend economist? Demeter makes the topic as entertaining as an economic

forum could be. I'm no expert, but the info flies at a staggering pace, all weekend, every weekend. I kick and rec the host every chance I get.

[upi402]

2. I'm always grateful for the service folks in this forum provide

I'd never have access to their thoughts and information otherwise. I usually read this forum on weekends too but ...Demeter? I guess I'm not familiar. Thanks for the tip!

[jotsy]

4. Demeter is the DUer that provides weekend economist.

[bossy22]

3. decline......

Econo-journalists love writing this story. The problem is they forget the facts. The truth is their is a potential the U.S. Dollar will decline- but its not a for-gone conclusion yet. What we have seen recently actually indicates the opposite. The fast few months reports have shown that inflation has been kept steady (and even in one time period actually deflation occured). These are the same econo-journalists who said the Euro would be overtaking the dollar right now; even though as we all know, the "mighty" euro seems like the "sick old man of europe".

Before a major decline in the dollar will occur the world will have to find a suitable alternative. So far none is out there

[upi402]

5. Thanks bossy22

Good points. The posters on international boards I go to seem to all agree that the USD will soon follow, and in a big way. I don't bother with mainstream media US business journalists for obvious reasons. But they don't know of a safe harbord except to point to the relative strength of Asian currencies, Japan seemingly excepted. Confusing to me.

[westerebus]

6. You asked.

I expect parity with the Euro. It's not so much as the dollar rising as it is the Euro floating downward to met it.

Why?

It is how they will lever China off the dollar peg.

Any thing China can produce can be done at cost or cheaper in India.

[cutlassmama]

7. Will that be a good thing for the U.S.?

[westerebus]

8. In the short term, no.

Long term, out ten to fifteen years, baring a civil collapse, yes.

We have several more years of a "jobless recovery" ahead of us.

The economy will scrape along the pavement for some time to come.

We are not out of the woods.

It is in our interests and the EU's to break China's dollar peg. We will try to limit their exposure to our markets as will the EU. If we don't buy, they can't sell. In this economy, it is a buyer's market.

We can devalue the world's reserve currency as we need to. We can sell our debt to our Central Bank and we do. We might put a half dozen air craft carriers off the coast of Taiwan just because we can.

Will it make China angry? You bet. Will it scare the be-jesus out of the EU? Sure thing.

Put in the context of saving Western Civilization, it is just a matter of time.

[westerebus]

11. Did someone mention the dollar peg?

Now for Act II, Scene I, Why austerity is neither beast nor burden for the well heeled.

The jet is fueled and the crew is preparing the final check list, all is as it should be.

Her comfort is assured.

Aides in attendance and security in position.

Only one question comes to mind.

Why are the Americans' dragging their feet on pensions?

It's the deficit reduction they must drive home.

At least they have a commission studying it.

We could write that report for them.

But, that would be cheating. Ha. I've made a joke.

And they say German's have no sense of humor.

Ms Merkel smiles.

So many sheep to shear, so little time. Ha. An other joke.

[Warpy]

9. The buck is near its post Stupid high right now

so there's plenty of room for it to fall without having us shriek in desperation.

[pscot]

10. The debt crisis in the PIIGS

is pushing the Euro down. This probably suits the Germans just fine, since it makes German goods cheaper in both dollars and yuan. That makes German goods more competitive and keeps German shoppers at home. Excess production capacity and weak demand should keep prices moderate. .

[CHIMO]

12. Open Ended Question

It might go up.

It might go down.

I am sure that it will do both.

To begin an analysis one needs to consider a time frame. One needs a reference. And one needs a method of analysis.

It seems to me that the reference is gold. It also seems to me that the method is the trend.

As you can probably tell I am not an expert and my knowledge of the experts is lacking.