Oil production numbers...weird

[bighughdiehl]

Ok, what's up with them? Why the 2mbd increase in just the last few months after two and a half years of flat as a pancake? Are they now adding (bullshit)ethanol? Ignoring decreases in some countries while counting increases in (probably very few) others? I guess the possibilities for desperate Enron math are endless, here? Or, should we take them more or less at face value(seems unlikely given the most recent price increases)? Bueller? Anyone with inside info or something?
I guess they may never tell us the truth, even when it comes to raw numbers you can only get on the net...scary. Can anyone confidently find an honest count of either C&C or all liquids?

[chill_wind]

1. This doesn't answer your question about current numbers, but I found this at The Memory Hole

and I've been meaning to post links.

http://www.thememoryhole.org/corp/gas-prices.htm

How Gas Companies Manipulate Prices

From the Statement of Senator Carl Levin, Chairman, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations; Hearing on Gas Prices: How Are They Really Set? US Senate, 30 April 2002


This stuff is no longer at Sen Levin's referenced website, but this document is still available here:


Report: Gas Prices: How Are They Really Set?
http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/042902gasreport.htm


They are laughing at all of us. All the way to the banks every single day.

[lapfog_1]

2. The Saudis say they increased

production about 300,000bpd even before Bush came hat in hand to beg for it.

Of course, that's only about a 4 percent increase.

In the last three years they invested a few billion dollars in a new drilling program and increased tertiary recovery program... the goal was to increase production from 9MBPD to 12MBPD, but the result was this .3 or so MBPD increase. And it barely offsets the decline by Mexico, the North Sea, and Russia.

I don't know where a 2MBPD increase might have come from... can you post where you see this increase?

I believe that production numbers are flat to declining, and I'm of the opinion that world peak oil has already happened (2006).

Look at the production numbers for Cantarell, the big oil field in the Gulf that Mexico. Even with Nitrogen injection, it has started an 11 percent year over year decline in 2006.

[bhikkhu]

3. Here is what I am looking at, and its nothing unusual:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html

if you look at the spreadsheet under the "United States, Persian Gulf, Total OPEC, and World Total, Most Recent Months and Years" tab, smoothing the numbers a bit it shows a plateau for about 2 years at 84.5 mbpd up until October 2007, then an increase to a plateau of 85.5 mbpd.

Whether it involves real production increases, as would be expected with the huge profits, or whether it is only a change in what is included in the numbers I am not sure. But the numbers are not so unusual here, really.

The Oil Drum tells us that there are sufficient projects coming online this year and the next to offset any but the most unexpected decline rates of established fields. After 2009, however, things look grim.

[bighughdiehl]

4. here is what is suspicious

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls

Note that last august it dips well below 84mbpd(after two years of flat 85ish), now suddenly it is almost 86 as of february. There is a similar pattern at omrpublic.iea.org

This is quite the wild gyration,so, are they making shit up?