There's been a lot of ink spilled this week about the risk ChevronTexaco's chief exec, David O'Reilly, has taken in paying about $16.4 billion for rival Unocal and its oil resources. Because Unocal's stock has soared 75 percent over the past year, the thinking goes, ChevronTexaco could find itself with a white elephant on its hands if currently sky-high oil prices end up coming back to earth.
Well, I'm prepared to say this much: O'Reilly isn't stupid. He knows more than most people about world oil markets. So if the head of San Ramon's ChevronTexaco is prepared to gamble more than 16 billion bucks on oil prices staying at stratospheric levels, I'm ready to give him the benefit of the doubt.
And reading between the lines, that means only one thing. Peak oil. We're basically there.
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Amos Nur, a professor of geophysics at Stanford University, told me that if we're not at peak oil right now, "we're in the neighborhood." ChevronTexaco and the other oil majors know this as well, he said, and this is why they're scrambling to secure as much global reserves as they can. "There's no question in my mind that they are aware of this and that they are right," Nur said. "Oil prices are not coming back down."
EDIT
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/04/08/BUGA4C50P61.DTL