map o'doom - from France

[flamingdem]

http://www.irsn.fr/FR/popup/Pages/irsn-meteo-france_19mars.aspx

Who knows how to interpret this map, but at least it makes a person on
the West Coast feel like they are not alone!

[Taverner]

1. Of course I've also seen the mock ups where the plume spreads to China

My guess is wherever it goes, most of the fallout will end up in the ocean

This is good news for us on the West Coast, but also bad news for seafood eaters

Radiation is a lot worse for you when ingested

[flamingdem]

2. What do you think about Pacific Wild Salmon consumption?

Bad idea? I'm thinking if it gets much worse it could do a number on the fishing industry in that area.

Of course they'll say that they are testing it carefully!

[Taverner]

4. Right now that's dangerous due to the mercury

Radiation won't help things

[flamingdem]

6. Oh no. Even the wild variety of salmon?

I eat a lot of that thinking I'm avoiding mercury in other fish.

When researching, it was hard to find any solid information about
mercury. If you have any links I'd really appreciate that - or any
groups that follow this and test.

[Taverner]

7. The problem is our seas

How we managed to contaminate them so badly in such a short time is nothing short of amazing, but in a bad way

[Buzz Clik]

3. That model is really hard to interpret.

My best guess is that it is showing relative concentration -- relative to the max in the atmosphere at that given time. It's based on dozens of assumptions, including that the radiation is eventually contained at the reactor.

[flamingdem]

5. We need a French speaker

http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Documents/home.htm

It doesn't appear to be a lunatic fringe site. I think it's what you said, a very complex portrayal of many outcomes and ranges.

[DissedByBush]

8. I wonder if it considers

The half-life of what was released. A lot of that stuff has an extremely short half-life.

[Buzz Clik]

9. From what I can gather, it is modeling Cs-137. Half life on the order of 30 years.

[flamingdem]

10. cesium-137 is a big problem

and I think we'll see more of it.

Seems much worse than Iodine because thyroid cancer is mostly curable.

[CabalPowered]

11. A bit more info

It's a government sponsored institute that specializes in radiation and nuclear accidents.

http://www.irsn.fr/EN/Presentation/about_us/Pages/Who_are_we.aspx

The page that describes this model is not available in English. The google translation is.. clunky. So is my French. My quick translation of their explanation page..

This is based on a theoretical dispersion model, with the assumptions adjusted for what readings are available. They're using Cesium 137 as the tracer. Weather data is from Météo-France, their equivalent to NOAA. They predict that the plume will reach France by Wednesday next week.

Bottom line in English with Bq for units: The Southern Hemisphere will not likely be significantly affected. Most of the Northern Hemisphere can expect rates around 0.001 Bq/m3. For comparison, France measured 10 Bq/m3 after Chernobyl. The current level in France is 0.000001 Bq/m3.

http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Actualites_presse/Actualites/Pages/20110319_simulation_dispersion_panache_radioactif.aspx

[flamingdem]

12. thanks Cabal

I bet the French are keeping a good watch on the situation.

[petronius]

13. It looks like it's modeling cs-137 concentrations in the lowest 500 m

of the atmosphere relative to the allowable safe maximum. The scale looks like it's 100,000,000ths of the max, 100,000ths of the max, etc. So, any place reaching the darkest brown would be 10% or more of the maximum safe exposure, and things toward the yellow end are exceedingly trivial.

(Becquerels (bq) are atomic disintegrations per second, and the map is bq per cubic meter.)