Wood McKenzie Projects Non-OPEC Conventional Peak By 2015

[hatrack]

SINGAPORE - Oil production outside the OPEC cartel will keep rising until about 2015, while global output will continue to expand through 2025 at least, a top analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.

Countering doomsday “peak oil” theorists who believe global oil production may be reaching its limits, Wood Mackenzie said research based on its database of field-by-field global data showed supplies should keep expanding for at least 20 years.

It expects global oil production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to rise to about 52 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 from 47 million bpd now, based mostly on existing fields and imminent developments, Kate Broughton, head of oils research at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.

That is an annual average growth rate of around 1.25 percent, while OPEC capacity will rise even more quickly. The study may put to rest immediate concerns over the oil industry’s ability to cope with rapid demand growth in big consumers such as the United States and China, and highlights weakening market power in coming years.

EDIT

http://www.energybulletin.net/29140.html

[depakid]

1. "Sadly, the data on which the prediction is made are presumably proprietary"

"The reporter rather optimistically believes that one prediction based on secret data will
'put to rest' concerns about peak oil."

Grasping at straws... A very common theme in the literature about societies facing collapse. I expect to see a lot more of it in the coming decade.

[phantom power]

2. Most of the world hasn't moved past Denial.

I, on the other hand, have advanced all the way to Despair. Or was that Depression?

[Dogmudgeon]

3. What's after Despair and Depression

DesMoines?

Well ... they make a lot of ethanol there.

15% blend gasoline AND 86 proof.

--p!
With apologies and greetings to Iowans and the Hawkeyes.
"I owe I-O-Way more than I can ever pay"

[Javaman]

6. Well when the economy really goes into the

shitter in earnest, that 86 proof will taste mighty good. lol

[depakid]

5. Acceptance...

or... "Oh fuck, we're doomed...guess we have to deal with it."

I swear, nations and societies really do go through the Kubler-Ross stages just like individuals.

* Denial (this isn't happening to me!)
* Anger (why is this happening to me?)
* Bargaining (I promise I'll be a better person if...)
* Depression (I don't care anymore)
* Acceptance (I'm ready for whatever comes)

[Dogmudgeon]

4. This is sneaky of Wood Mackenzie

They appear to have re-jiggered the numbers just to say they are "(c)ountering doomsday “peak oil” theorists". Instead of placing Peak Oil at 2005, now, or in the next year or two, they are appealing to the cornucopians -- by pushing it back a full eight years. In terms of history, this is insignificant, and it still means that we will have to deal with the same scenario.

Their projected 1.25% pa growth rate is similarly suspiciously anemic for cornucopians.

Depending on OPEC, we get a whopping 18 years of Business As Usual. But we have learned to our regret that we can't depend on OPEC, certainly not for accurate, verifiable data.

So between Wood Mackenzie (with their secret data analysis techniques) and OPEC (where each member country's oil data is a state secret guarded as jealously as we once guarded The Bomb), we just have to trust them.

If this is "countering the doomsday peak oil theorists", Wood Mackenzie expects us to make our choice between sources of anxiety and keep our fingers crossed.

--p!