What if Egypt, Jordan, and Syria had won the Six Day War?

[ProgressiveMuslim]

Stephen M. Walt

Sun, 01/04/2009 - 5:22pm
Here's a thought experiment:

Imagine that Egypt, Jordan, and Syria had won the Six Day War, leading to a massive exodus of Jews from the territory of Israel. Imagine that the victorious Arab states had eventually decided to permit the Palestinians to establish a state of their own on the territory of the former Jewish state. (That's unlikely, of course, but this is a thought experiment). Imagine that a million or so Jews had ended up as stateless refugees confined to that narrow enclave known as the Gaza Strip. Then imagine that a group of hardline Orthodox Jews took over control of that territory and organized a resistance movement. They also steadfastly refused to recognize the new Palestinian state, arguing that its creation was illegal and that their expulsion from Israel was unjust. Imagine that they obtained backing from sympathizers around the world and that they began to smuggle weapons into the territory. Then imagine that they started firing at Palestinian towns and villages and refused to stop despite continued reprisals and civilian casualties.

Here's the question: would the United States be denouncing those Jews in Gaza as "terrorists" and encouraging the Palestinian state to use overwhelming force against them?


http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/node/10732

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Interesting question

I see the whole problem as one of clashing cultures--not Jewish and Arab,but rather European and Middle East. It was easier for Europe and the US to deal with Zionists who had come from Europe because they both had shared experiences/history with European ways of thinking about things. And when it came to PR, especially in the early days, again those Zionists who had come from Europe and America could not only speak English fluently, but understood the US and European world view.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

2. Isn't that really code for white vs. brown?

[Kurska]

4. A large portion of israeli jews are sephardic, how can it be white vs. brown?

It's Western culture vs. Mideastern culture (If you really could fine beliefs so encompassing that you could label them that), the damn skin color of those involved doesn't matter.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

12. No

My husband and I have Middle Eastern friends who tell us that Asian Jews (those whose families lived in the ME for generations rather than coming to Israel from Europe after WWII) are treated as second class citizens in Israel.

[question everything]

39. What bullshit!

First, strange that you refer to Jews from the Arab countries as coming from Asia. They did not come from Korea or China. They either lived in what was called Palestine for generations, or fled Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Lebanon and Morocco.

Second, they are as successful or as poor as the "European Jews." Certainly many top generals in the IDF are people whose parents or grand parents were not "European Jews."

So tell us, your "middle eastern friends" are they from Israel or are they Arabs intend on spinning a yarn a-la Scheherazade?

[Kurska]

3. The jewish population of israel would have dwinlded to nothing

There wouldn't be any "Jewish" terrorists, the stated goal of many of those arabs nations WAS to drive the jews into the sea. If they had done that the jewish population of the holy land would have been reduced to nothing through either flight or slaughter.

This man clearly doesn't understand the do or die nature of every single major war israel has fought, if they had lost it wouldn't have just been the end of israel, but of jewish presence in the region.

[shaayecanaan]

17. Israel had sufficient enriched uranium by 1965 to build simple rack-type nuclear devices

For that and other reasons, I doubt that any defeat in the six day war would have been total.

Further, for the most part massacres of civilians in the Arab-Israeli wars, particularly by regular forces, were committed by Jews against Arabs. There was only one allegation of regular Arab forces committing a massacre against Jews during 1947 to 1948, and the Arab Legion in that instance claimed it was responding to a grenade attack.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_committed_during_the_1948_Arab-Israeli_war

Generally, regular Arab forces did not commit massacres, and as such your claim that they would have slaughtered every Jew in the middle East had they won the 1967 war is completely unfounded.

[sabbat hunter]

5. If Egypt, Jordan and Syria

Had won the 6 day war, there would be no state of Israel, any jews there would have be forced from the region.

If those jews had then attacked only civilian targets (much as hamas and IJ do) they then would be terrorists.

But the invading Arab armies would not have allowed any jews to remain so that point is moot.

[Zynx]

19. Exactly. Egypt's goals in that war were hardly civilized.

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

6. Here's a question? What side would god be on?

[Igel]

13. In the hypothetical ...

construed realistically ... he'd be on the side of the living, of the Arabs.

The dead have no side.

[sabbat hunter]

32. she would

be shaking her head sadly at those who claim that god is on their side.

[ellisonz]

7. What if Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia Jordan and Syria had won the 1948 war?

[Kurska]

8. edit

edit

[aranthus]

25. There would be no Jews, and no Palestine.

One of the main purposes of Jordan's entry into the 48 war (with much assistance and connivance from The United Kingdom) was to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state. Ironically, if the all the Palestinians ever wanted was a state, then the only way that they were going to get it was to not start the war in 1947, because that gave the Jordanians and Egyptians the excuse to come in and destroy it.

[Duckhunter935]

9. If there were any left, since the stated goal is

total extermination of non-believers

They would have been welcomed in many other countries around the world as is already fact. Unfortunantly the Arab states do not seem to want or help the Palistinians

[PerfectSage]

10. Depends on the ability of the imaginary muslim AIPAC lobby to influence US foreign policy.

And it also depends on the imaginary muslim neo cons ability to influence RW ideology. :rofl:

[LeftishBrit]

22. You mean the pro-Arab oil lobby?

Not very imaginary.

[Duckhunter935]

11. And if the Arabs had accepted the UN brokered

two state solution in 1947 with both Israel and Palistine

[Vegasaurus]

15. They would have prosperous happy lives today

Imagine that.

[wellst0nev0ter]

21. You Mean The One Where The Minority Population

Received the majority of the land?

[aranthus]

26. How about if they had accepted any compromise? n/t

[Recursion]

14. What if the Europeans had set up a Jewish homeland in the old Pale? NT

[aranthus]

27. What if Superman had been a Nazi?

We can talk about all kinds of ridiculous what ifs, but they won't help anyone understand the current situation. There is no way that any East European country would accept a Jewish state in its midst, and there would be no basis for the Jews to claim that the Pale was their "homeland." The Jewish homeland is Israel.

[Recursion]

29. Hmm

There is no way that any East European country would accept a Jewish state in its midst

Do you see the issue here? Europe won't accept European refugees but Arabs are expected to?

and there would be no basis for the Jews to claim that the Pale was their "homeland."

Well, actually, Jews lived in Eastern Europe (approx. 2000 years from the Diaspora to WWII) for longer than they lived in Palestine (approximately 1200 ears from the formation of the kingdom to the Diaspora).

So I think the Ashkenazim, at least, have more of a claim to central Europe than they do to Israel.

[aranthus]

31. Give me a break.

There were established European sovereignties over the Pale of Settlement, that had a right to deny the Jews a state there. There was never a Palestinian sovereignty.

Second, Jewish presence in Palestine has been continuous for around three thousand years or so (as people on this board have pointed out many times before, so you should know that by now). It is where the Jewish people became the Jewish people. There is no other place in the world that the Jews or any reasonable person considers to be the Jewish homeland.

I understand that you desire to de legitimize the Jews and Jewish national rights. I fail to understand why you or anyone else believes that it is logically or morally defensible.

[Recursion]

33. Because the fact is the Ashk. are Europeans

Their stateless status was at that point Europeans' fault (mostly Russia's and Austria's), should have been addressed in situ by the Europeans, and Europeans need to bear the price of it, not Arabs. The Sephardim are a different population and have a much different (and more positive) history with the Arabs (and Berbers).

I understand that you desire to de legitimize the Jews and Jewish national rights.

No, you're imagining my "desire" to de-legitimize the Jews. I'm all for their having a nation, too; but central Europe makes more sense, historically and morally, than the Levant does.

There were established European sovereignties over the Pale of Settlement, that had a right to deny the Jews a state there.

Most nationalities didn't have their own nation in Europe until the mid-19th-century; Americans are historically most familiar with the English and French experiences, which were unusual in that they had their own nations. And I don't think Russia and Austria-Hungary had a "right" to keep Jews stateless any more than they did to keep Belarussians, Croatians, Italians, etc. stateless.

Where one's ancestors were 2000 years ago means a lot less, to me, than where one's ancestors have lived for the intervening 2000 years.

[aranthus]

34. Bull. The fact is that they are Jews.

They have the same national heritage as the Sephardim. As for Russia, Poland or any other European state, of course they had a right to deny their territory for the creation of a Jewish state. What you really need to defend is the claim that the Palestinians had an absolute and exclusive right to all of Palestine, such that they didn't need to compromise.

The Jews are in Israel by national right, and they aren't going anywhere. You and the Palestinians need to get over it, and start thinking about ways to build a Palestinian state instead of trying to come up with excuses for destroying the Jewish one.

[Recursion]

36. Of course they're Jews. European Jews

They have lived significantly longer in Europe than in the Middle East, and greatly contributed to and received contributions from the surrounding European cultures.

[aranthus]

37. Sorry. I don't have any more time for your nonsense. Have a nice day. n/t

[Vegasaurus]

38. The energy these people waste trying to destroy Israel

could have built a Palestinian state a hundred times.

You have to wonder if they really want one, side by side with Israel.

That's right, they don't.

Hamas and its supporters want ONE state, which is Israel, to be taken over, rid of Jews, and turned into another Muslim theocracy.

[Recursion]

42. Nobody is seriously talking about killing or evicting the Israelis

Israel needs to absorb this fact. The Palestinians want an end to the Apartheid. Even Hamas and Al Aqsa aren't talking about killing or evicting the people of Israel.

[GoesTo11]

16. We don't have to wonder

There have been some ultra-orthodox extremists in Israel who have committed acts of terrorism against Palestinians. They are branded as terrorists and condemned by Jews in and out of Israel. Israel uses overwhelming force and arrests them. Needless to say, the US supports that.

[On the Road]

18. What's Amazing is That

even when it's put this way, the Israel-is-right crowd absolutely cannot fathom role reversal.

It's really no wonder the proportion of Palestinians has grown who feel that hopeless violence is their best course of action. It didn't used to be like this 10, 20, 30, or 40 years ago. It is a learned response.

[shira]

20. Amateur rank article by Walt

Some of the more intelligent comments that follow this article expose Mr. Walt's fallacious arguments. Pretty pathetic drivel from a man of his learning.

[aranthus]

28. It's intended for the gullible. n/t

[ProgressiveMuslim]

23. Point is: It would be UNTHINKABLE. And it should be UNTHINKABLE TODAY.

Jewish people are not inherently more valuable.

[aranthus]

24. In law this would be called an incomplete hypothetical and an unfair analogy.

First, if the Arabs had won the 1967 war, there would be far fewer than a million Jews left alive to be sent to Gaza. There would not have been a massive exodus from Israel, as the Arabs would have slaughtered the Jews wholesale (at least this is what the Arabs claimed that they would do, and there is little reason to doubt that they would have). Second, the possibility that hard line Orthodox Jews would have taken over the Jewish community is, to be generous, highly unlikely. Third, the idea that they would claim that, "Palestine," had no right to exist is ludicrous, as the Jews accepted the Palestinian right to statehood way back in 1947 when they accepted the Partition Resolution. Fourth, it is almost unthinkable that they would direct indiscriminate fire against Palestinian towns. Fifth, there is no doubt that they would survive only a few hours if they did. Sixth, Walt's imaginings bear no relation to the reality of the middle east today. For that to occur, he would also have had to imagine that the Jews were originally led by Nazi sympathizers would pushed them into a war to eradicate the Palestinians, and that they kept up that war for decades despite losing at every turn. Even Walt's wild rantings can't go that far. This is just another intellectually vacuous and dishonest smear of the kind reasonable people have come to expect from Walt.

[Vegasaurus]

35. Absolutely correct

The Arabs' goals were clear right from the first war they started, through all the others they started and lost.

They wanted to annihilate the tiny Jewish state right from the beginning, and all the Jews within.

So, had the Arabs won in '67, or in '48, or whenever, there wouldn't be any Jews at all in the middle east.

Now, that is what the Israel haters want anyway, but fortunately, it didn't happen.

[Marie26]

30. IMO yes. nt

[question everything]

40. Now that's a yarn worthy of Scheherazade

Do you know why Israel won? In 1948 and in 1967? Because the soldiers fought for their lives, their country, their families. Because they knew they had no choice.

Why did Egypt and Jordan and Syria lost? Because the soldiers had no motivation, no loyalty to whoever sent them to die on a foreign land.

As long as you fly that flag, you may want to understand the history of your people so that you will not look back but forward.

And you can start by removing your people from their squalid refugee camps and get them settled with jobs or small businesses so that they, and their children can be productive members of society, instead of living on handouts for over 60 years now.

Instead of asking of what if Egypt and Jordan and Syria won the war, why not ask what if the Arab refugees, like the Jews from the Arab land, had been absorbed and became equal citizens, instead of sitting in refugee camps, where they sustain on hate and false dreams.

[aranthus]

41. The 1002nd tale?

No wait. Edgar Allen Poe wrote that one. Must be the 1003rd.