Israel losing 4th Gen War conflict in Gaza

[DogPoundPup]

WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 (UPI) -- So far, Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip has produced no surprises. On the physical level of war, the Israel Defense Forces are triumphing. The Palestinians are suffering about 100 people dead for every dead Israeli. To a Second Generation War military, which is what Israel's formerly Third Generation War army has become, that is the main measure of victory.

On the moral level, the picture is reversed. Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, is almost assured of victory. As Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld has observed, all it has to do to claim victory is survive, which it will. That claim will not be just propaganda: For Hamas to survive everything a modern state military can throw at it is a legitimate victory. In fact, it not only will survive but also will be strengthened by a worldwide flood of sympathy, which will translate in part into new recruits and more money.

In the end, if Israel wants to stop Hamas' rockets, it will be able to do so only by making a deal with Hamas. Since that was equally true before the war, the question of why it was fought will soon present itself. The real reason is a tad sordid: The current Israeli government is trying to split the "get tough" vote to prevent the Likud Party from winning the next election.

The same motivation lay behind last weekend's "discovery" that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asked the United States for permission to attack Iran. The parties in the current Israeli coalition government are saying, in effect, to Israeli voters, "Why vote for an oaf like (Likud Party leader) Binyamin Netanyahu when you can get the same thing from us without the endless embarrassments?"

What all Israeli parties and the IDF seem to share is that they don't get Fourth Generation War. They have been defeated repeatedly by 4G forces, but they do not learn.

http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2009/01/14/Israel_losing_4th_Gen_War_conflict_in_Gaza/UPI-14921231950051/

[Vegasaurus]

1. Hamas will lose, even if they say they won

But the next time they want to start a war, maybe they will think twice about the consequences.

Hezbollah has; even Nasrallah claimed that had he known the results of the 2006 kidnapping, they would never have provoked the war.

Let's hope Hamas has half the brain power.