Egypt’s Doomed Election

[pelsar]

The threat of electoral defeat has even made some liberals sympathetic to the military’s attempt to dominate the constitution-writing process. They are so fearful of Muslim Brotherhood dominance that they would rather have secular strongmen in control than democratically elected Islamists.

It may be true that the military wants an impotent new Parliament, but when liberals resort to supporting the tools of dictators, the future is bleak.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/opinion/egypts-doomed-election.html?_r=2


something that is lost upon many here

[Swede]

1. Elections started a bloody civil war in Algeria.

The military vs. Islamists.

[bemildred]

2. OK, the future is bleak. nt

[pelsar]

3. theres this thing called learning from mistakes...

or not doing the same thing twice and expect a different outcome

or perhaps that the left should learn that elections do not make a democracy

[bemildred]

4. I've heard of it, I don't see it much.

However I can assure you that I live in the USA, and I know very well that elections do not make a democracy.

[bemildred]

5. With dream in reach, Egypt's Brotherhood stumbles

CAIRO (AP) — For months, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has focused single-mindedly on this moment — parliamentary elections beginning Monday that the fundamentalist group is expected to dominate. Now it may be a pyrrhic victory.

The Brotherhood stayed on the sidelines of this week's protests by secular liberal groups demanding the country's military rulers step down, hurting its image among key sectors of the Egyptian public who accuse the group of siding with the generals and selling out democracy demands to gain power.

By staying out of the protests, "the Brotherhood has made it clear that they want elections because they want the seat of power, no matter what that seat looks like," said Abdel-Jalil el-Sharnoubi, who once headed the Brotherhood's website until he quit the group earlier this year in frustration with its leadership.

Ever since the Feb. 11 fall of autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak, fears have been growing among some Egyptians that the country would take a strong turn toward Islamic fundamentalism.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iE5M9xIblafTW0REaVtbl7kCAH7Q?docId=cfb0dbad14764250acea54f9eb403267

[pelsar]

7. what a surprise

the Brotherhood has made it clear that they want elections because they want the seat of power

did somebody besides my 2yr old nephew not know this?

[bemildred]

8. So you feel it is stupid of AP to point that out, or what?

It's to be expected that political parties would "want the seat of power", that's what they do. What was interesting there is that they were catching flak for it, they were being equated with Mubarak for playing politics and going along with the junta.

[pelsar]

9. what is obvious at least from over here...

is the "surprise" that MB wants power and will do what it takes to get there. The surprise is that a theocratic party that is based on god and her teachings somehow is supposed to believe in western style elections and govt, and "cares for the people and the process.

this is what is obvious:
theocratic parties will do whatever is necessary to get in to power, they will play with the secular as long as it advances their long terms goal, and only the naive actually believe that, somehow these theocratic parties actually believe in the democratic process.

its happens again and again and again and again, and it never seems to sink in....just watch Libya and tunisia, Pakistan and turkey (in turkey the process has now becoming more clearer), over the years, if anything the MB and their affiliates are very patient.

[bemildred]

10. You better pay attention to your own "theocratic parties". nt

[pelsar]

12. duh....

of course...thats how shas got power and subsequently lost it.....

and now the religious ones are following the turkey example..infiltrate the army slowly, rise up in the ranks and start the changes there....and yes it scares the shit out of me.

[bemildred]

13. OK then, I'll admit I am curious to see where MB comes out in Egypt.

But I think that is far, even very far, from being a done deal, what happens in Egypt, they are just getting started. We will see.

[Crunchy Frog]

26. I understand that you have similarly theocratic parties in your own country

Are you forseeing an incipient dictatorship in your country's future?

Our own Republican party here is now heavily dominated by theocrats. I myself am not too hopeful about retaining even a semblance of democracy here.

[pelsar]

28. that would take a revolution....

same as in the states..both have founding documents that are secular in nature. And in the US there is a far longer history of the country being secular, you have little to worry about...Israel is more danger of creeping theocracy as they infiltrate the army and are already demanding changes...

your view of the Republicans is wrong. Theocrats are devoutly religious, nor do they hide it in their personal lives, the republicans may have a different out look on life etc than you, but they are far from being what israel has to face or the muslim countries with their own MB versions...those are real theocrats.

now i shall give you a mini lecture:
you should not only accept the republicans but be satisfied that there is a major party that is not extreme (their history in governing is not extreme). You don't want a society where everyone thinks and believes the same, for one thing that is impossible since the next generation, is going to make changes in the life style that they grew up in, no matter how wonderful you believe it is. 2nd, tolerance is an essential element of a working society, calling the republicans theocrats shows massive intolerance...so get used to the idea of different ideas and learn to keep things in proportion (the republicans aren't even near to being theocratic )

Those that don't agree with you are going to need a political party to "park" their views and opinions, and the republicans in their history have shown that they too believe in the basics of the constitution, peaceful change of power etc. All of the sins that you may believe they have done, you'll find parallels in the democratic party.

fanaticism and intolerance are the real dangers to any democratic society.....

[shira]

6. Egypt's seculars and liberals need to unify in order to defeat the MB in elections...

Since that won't happen, the only likely scenarios are that the MB takes over and things get far worse in Egypt, or the military doesn't allow for the MB to come into power and they risk a civil war.

Not pretty.

[bemildred]

11. Egypt protests grow for sixth day

Reporting from Cairo—
Protests swelled in Cairo for a sixth day Wednesday as international pressure mounted on Egypt's military rulers to stop a deadly crackdown on demonstrators who have reinvigorated the defiant spirit that last winter overthrew Hosni Mubarak.

The crowds surging into Tahrir Square were a clear sign that military concessions announced Tuesday to speed up the transfer of power to democratic government did little to stem the rage against the ruling generals. Tear gas mixed with epithets as protesters and police clashed on streets littered with bullet casings, metal pipes and stones.

The unrest intensified the drama before parliamentary elections planned for Monday. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces said voting would not be postponed. But the nation was layered in conflicting emotions over taking a step closer to democracy amid the bloodshed carried out by a military state criticized for spoiling a revolution that helped inspire the "Arab Spring."

The United Nations condemned the violence and called for an independent investigation into the deaths of at least 32 people and the injuring of 2,000 more since the latest clashes started in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and other cities.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-protests-20111124,0,6231841.story

[bemildred]

14. Chaos Builds in the Streets of Cairo as a Truce Fails

CAIRO — The outskirts of Tahrir Square, the iconic landmark of Egypt’s revolution, plunged into chaos on Wednesday, after attempts by the Egyptian military, religious clerics and doctors failed to stanch a fifth day of fighting that has posed the greatest crisis to the country since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in February.

The fighting in darkened streets, suffused with tear gas and eerily illuminated by the flashing lights of police cars and the floodlights of armored personnel carriers, seemed to stand as a metaphor for a political transition that has careened into deep uncertainty just days before elections that were supposed to anchor the shift from military to civilian rule.

The military that seized power with Mr. Mubarak’s fall rebuffed protesters’ demands to surrender authority this week, and the political elite has seemed paralyzed or defensive over the unrest. The discontent in Tahrir Square has broadened from demands for the generals to cede control and anger over bloodshed into dissatisfaction with a transition that has delivered precious little since the uprising’s heady days in February.

“This is a revolution of the hungry!” declared Amr Ali Mohammed, a 23-year-old protester taking a break from the battle with the police. “Egyptians have had enough.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/world/middleeast/egypt-protesters-and-police-clash-for-fifth-day.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

[ellisonz]

15. So long as they don't rock the international boat...

...it's their right to elect whomever they want so as long as elections are fair and democracy is not undermined.

[pelsar]

16. that makes no sense whatsoever..

to being with there is no democracy in egypt, secondly electing a theocracy totally destroys the democratic process that is suppose to develop after the elections.

so i guess that makes your view rather confusing....do they have the right to elect MB that will infact destroy the embryonic democratic process?

[ellisonz]

17. What's the difference between a "theocracy" and the Republican Party?

So long as they continue to allow free and fair elections it is not a destroyed democratic process. I'm not convinced that's necessarily the intention. I reject the Republican hypothesis that Islamic government in and of itself is "radical Islam" and antithetical to a peaceful, democratic country.

[pelsar]

18. democracy vs theocracy 101

this may be a surprise to you (I know this is the DU) but there have been times where the republicans controlled the US govt, through its majorities and the US democratic process actually survived, voted them out, voted them in, voted them out and voted them in....using the same judicial process that the democrats use-the western value system

A theocracy has its holy book as the base of all laws...an islamic govt doesn't have to be radical, however the muslim brotherhood, like hamas and others are in fact a fanatical faction of that. You will see examples of their affiliates in pakistan, afganistan, saudi arabia, iran, etc. They are by their very definition against western democracy, with civil rights, it goes against their base values.

their either have to dump their base values or "play along" until the gain power...do you need examples? or is your belief also 'faith based'?

[ellisonz]

19. Actually, you kind of made my point.

Just because you've got people who put a holy book ahead of secular concerns, it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to impose an anti-democratic, repressive, totalitarian regime. Is it not possible the Islamists parties were more motivated by being against Mubarak than being for a theocratic, authoritarian state?

Political Islam at a crossroads in Egypt
Islamic parties are likely to win big in elections Monday, but their unity has splintered, leading to questions over whether Egypt will emerge as a democratic inspiration or slip back into autocracy.

By Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times
November 25, 2011

Reporting from Cairo—
The call to prayer quiets in the minaret as Mohammad Abbas, a street protester turned candidate for parliament, steps out of a decrepit elevator and hurries to his office. He's still learning the art of politics but he can spin a sound bite better than most of his elders.

------

Abbas joined the Brotherhood, the Arab world's largest Islamic movement, when he was in college. But the group that brought the 27-year-old closer to God and honed his social conscience booted Abbas out in July when he made clear that his ambitions for a new Egypt were much different from those of his mentors.

The Brotherhood's moderate Freedom and Justice Party and its more conservative Islamic allies are likely to win big in parliamentary elections Monday; no other organizations are as disciplined or as connected to the masses. But the Brotherhood's unity, which buttressed it for decades against bans and repression by Hosni Mubarak's police state, is splintering as both young and established voices break away.

------

Drawing heavily from the educated and the middle class, the Brotherhood appears at once coy and inept at revealing what its brand of political Islam exactly is. Secularists allege the group is masking a more radical agenda than its Freedom and Justice Party promotes. The organization's members often contradict themselves and at times operate with an opaque aloofness that comes from years of not caring about projecting media-friendly images.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-egypt-muslim-brotherhood-20111125,0,2756820.story?track=rss

Eat my shorts.

[pelsar]

20. that is the point....but it includes knowledge and not fantasy

having holy book as being the foundation for a state, and western civil type rights as secondary is the exact formula for a dictatorship. If you bothered to get some knowledge on the holy books you might realize that they are not democratic, full of bias, and for the most part anti civil rights....hence they do not make for a good foundation for a country. More so they depend upon interpretation by "holy people"....which takes them away even further from democracy.

MB is based on the koran, not civil rights, not the bill of rights, but the koran as the source of justice.....now look around at countries and societies that use the koran as the basis for social and justice system....any democracies there?

i do sympathize with you, however, as your in a bind. How can you support the 'people" when they choose an anti democratic party? i realize your only option is to pretend that MB actually believes in democracy, but how can they, that goes against their entire ideology?

[ellisonz]

21. What would make you think I haven't read them?

You'll find a lot of Americans who say that American law is based on the Bible!

You better hope I'm right...

[pelsar]

23. whats is this: American history 101?

did you miss the fact that when the supreme court makes decisions are based on the constitution? the bill or rights and all those other documents where "justice is blind' "equal under the law", etc are the base for their decisions?

i can't recall when one of their decisions was based on "god".....

that little difference is huge when it comes to governing.
_____

so either you dont understand the difference or for some peculiar reason prefer not to......

[ellisonz]

25. Gore v. Bush

The point is that what matters is the ideology of the people making the decisions - not the de facto presumption of the rule of the law.

People will do what they want.

[pelsar]

29. presumption of law?...what is that?

People will do what they want but within the confines of the law...or do you ignore stop signs when your driving?...steal food when your hungry?

your gore vs bush is simply an example of an imperfect government,...that btw is the standard, imperfection of governing bodies made up of imperfect human beings with various agendas is how governments work. Sometimes they work better (when you like their decisions) and others times not so good, which is probably the norm.

obama got elected...

more to the point your actual claiming that a court based on for example the koran is of equal standing in your eyes to a secular western style based court?

(i might remind you that a koran court ruling hangs homosexuals in iran)

[ellisonz]

32. People will do what they want.

I've yet to find an example of a "perfect government" that did everything according to a singular ideology. Even the totalitarian ones have push back and the only way they put them down is through sheer brutality. Have you considered that even if the Muslim Brotherhood were to win they would have to be relatively benign in how far they were willing to implement their vision?

I am making precisely that claim.

Consider the occurrence of lynchings in the United States...the law did not matter. People did what they wanted; they did what they thought they could get away with and they very often did get away with it entirely or with just a slap on the wrist.

I reject the right-wing canard that we are at war with "radical Islam." We are at war with those who would do harm unto innocents for simply political sake.

The history of Egypt is not identical to that of Saudi Arabia or Iran. It's their country and they will determine their own destiny.

[pelsar]

33. benign?...like in iran, like the taliban?...hamas?

People will do what they want. I am making precisely that claim.

are those examples of benign governments in your eyes? how about Pot Pol and friends?, we can always ask about the nazis...were they benign? N.Korea benign?

your asking me how far the MB would go to implement their ideology?....the one that declares everything comes from god?....as far as they can, the only sure thing is that won't be based on democracy, civil rights, etc.

clearly you don't believe in universal human rights takes precedent over national aspirations and their 'destiny" at least we cleared that up.
____

i have no idea what the republicans have to do with anything, other than some "example less claim that they want to implement a theocratic regime, so you can lay off the concept that its a "canard" originating from the short people.

[ellisonz]

34. I believe instability is more dangerous sometimes...

...that accepting that some things we're not going to like may happen. There are always trade offs.

I don't believe you can shove universal human rights down peoples throats who you have no leverage over.

I'm simply pointing out that religion isn't the be all end of all of political life.

[pelsar]

35. i'm not talking about shoving down anything....but i am

talking about accepting or not accepting anti democratic forces as governing bodies....
_____

i suspect most people in the world prefer stability of a bad govt to the instability of chaos or the anarchy version, and hence will take the bad option of the theocratic regime. But that doesn't mean the intl community has to accept that govt as legit.

just because one generation invites/votes in a theocratic regime, doesn't mean they have to be accepted, after all, once in they won't be having elections that might cost them power (god wouldn't approve). and therefore they' re depriving the next generations of the very right to chose how to be governed.....so much for destiny.

the obvious example are western govts that go left, right, left, right etc etc etc, whereas the theocratic regimes with their "destiny" vote remove that option....

[Crunchy Frog]

27. The phenomenon of Republicans being taken over by theocrats

is a relatively recent one. In fact there has been a total transformation of that party which renders past events pretty much meaningless for predicting future ones.

[pelsar]

30. examples?

the republicans already have power in many states...

lets see a few of those theocratic laws....i bet you can't find a single one..and i mean real theocratic law, based on the bible, not something culture that has to do with christmas trees

[pelsar]

31. its not a "republican" hypothesis....its an analysis that is not political

an islamic state doesn't have to be radical, provided its foundation documents are secular and take precedent. If the base of the country is religion based, that means its based on the holy books.

those books are not democratic by any means, no matter who much you want to believe that they will ignore the bloody biased parts, those books are the base for the laws....and they are not very liberal. Furthermore the interpretation of the text is not be elected officials but by the holy men....thats a formula for a theocracy.

just look around and the states that have the holy book as its base: as far as i know, its just muslim states today and their outlook and present history doesn't look very promising in terms of democracy.
___

just for fun: if something is called republican, is that the automatic "seal of rejection"?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

22. There is no alternative.

Yes, I think it not at all unlikely that the winners of an Egyptian election will be bad people, possibly very bad people indeed.

But that doesn't make it acceptable to deny the Egyptians a right to elect them, unfortunately.

[pelsar]

24. yes and no....

there maybe little that can be done....

"western nation building" is a long drawn out affair.......that either requires world support (post WWII) or long term liberal education that "seeps" in to the society (eastern europe)....unfortuantly i don't believe neither will happen in egypt, lybia, syria

but i don't think people have the right to elect a dictator or a religious based national society, not by any means since it takes away the rights of the next generation......

the ironic thing is, according to haaretz there is one country that some of the moderate Islamist look to for inspiration: guess which one?

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/arab-revolutionaries-look-to-israel-for-inspiration-1.397554

Arabs see a state where a president and prime minister are held to account for their crimes and failures, and hundreds of thousands can take to the streets calling for their removal without fearing they will not return home alive. And while the Arab broadcasters do not work in Israel totally unhindered - their crews are often subjected to humiliating body searches before prime ministerial press conferences - their offices have not been shut down and their employees targeted and attacked in the way they have been in just about every Arab country.

---------------------

but...and heres the tiny little bright light, the PA doesn't have to do down that same path, they actually have a real option to avoid it.

[vminfla]

36. One man, one vote, one time

The very essence of Shariah.