The terror attacks in Madrid and at the Ashdod port are reminders that it's the terrorists who set the agenda for the war on terror. In Spain, the mass-casualty attack dictated the results of the elections, as has happened numerous times in Israel as well. We can only guess what would have happened if Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had called a national referendum on his disengagement plan after a major terror attack and a harsh military response in Palestinian territory. He would have had a tough time getting the large majority he's expecting for a withdrawal his opponents consider "a reward for terror."
The decisions on the disengagement plan will ultimately be dictated by the influence of the incidents in the field. Sharon's timetable assumes that Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip at the beginning of 2005. Until then, Israel will have to maintain security stability to allow organized negotiation with the American government and a drawn-out legislative process to compensate the settlers who will be evacuated.
If the so-called low-intensity conflict continues at the same level it has for the last few months, hundreds more people can be expected to be killed on both sides before any evacuation takes place....
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