A look at the final polls before the Bush/Gore election. Interesting!

[Quixote1818]

The polls that got it right were: Zogby, Newsweek and CBS

The polls that got it wrong were: CNN, ABC, Battleground 2000, Washington Post, Portrait of America Tracking (way off)and FOX was slightly off.





CNN/USA Today/Gallup Presidential Preference (Nov. 5-6)
Margin of error +/- 2%
Bush 47%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%


Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Daily Tracking (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 46%
Gore 48%
Buchanan 0.5%
Nader 5%
Browne 0.6%
Phillips 0%
McReynolds 0%
Hagelin 0%


ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%


Battleground 2000 Daily (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3.1%

Bush 50%
Gore 45%
Buchanan --
Nader 3.5%


Portrait of America Tracking (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 1.6%

Bush 49%
Gore 40%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%
Browne 1%
Phillips <1%
Hagelin<1%


Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%


Newsweek – all registered voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 41%
Gore 44%
Buchanan 0%
Nader 5%


CBS News (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 44%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%


Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (Nov. 1-2)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 43%
Gore 43%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%


Washington Post Tracking (Nov. 2-5)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. Looks similar to where we are RIGHT NOW. But we've got the momentum,

and hopefully will be significantly ahead of this by Nov 2.

[mzmolly]

2. Interesting.

Thank you.

[Quixote1818]

3. It's interesting that the Newsweek registered voter poll was closer than

the Likely voter poll. What that shows you is that a few more people show up then you might think. This year that number will probably be even higher and Kerry tends to do very, very well in polls of registered voters.

[texasmom]

4. Very interesting.

I had just remembered that the polls were way off. I'm glad to have specifics.
Thanks!

[TomNickell]

7. Further off 3 weeks out....

There was a big change in the last few days before the election.

[Still_Loves_John]

5. Well to be fair

most of those, besides the weird ones in the middle, were inside the margin of error. When a race is that close, you can't really hold the polls at fault when they're wrong.

I think polling really shouldn't be looked at as a perfect picture of how people are voting. Besides showing general trends in the electorate, I don't think that they do very much good, especially in a race this close.

[TheDonkey]

6. I hear the Harris poll was the closest to reality.

[Zynx]

8. Yeah. They had Gore win by one point.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

9. Shrub's DUI really put the polls in a mess

I don't know how much of an impact * DUI had on voters. The news broke so late in the game that it really messed up a lot of final polls.

For what it's worth, Harris has the best polling organization around and they nailed the 2000 election. An underappreciated organization that has been around for a long, long time.

[Quixote1818]

12. Actually the DUI story broke Nov. 2nd most of these polls were taken after

that story broke. They continued to poll for four days beyond that story and it's effects would have shown up in those polls.

[Steelangel]

10. wow, interesting...

thanks!

[rjbny62]

11. polling firms seem to have difficulty reach likely democratic voters

[JI7]

13. what the fuck is that "portrait of america" poll

sounds like some right wing thing.

[bushwakker]

14. Portrait of America? Not a pretty picture!!! F Them. n/t

[Orangepeel]

15. they are all "right", except for that Portrait of America one

the margin of error means that 95% of the time, the poll numbers obtained will be within +/- x of the actual population numbers.

Given the closeness of the race a poll that had Gore up by 3% was no more or less accurate than a poll that had Bush up by 3%.

[Quixote1818]

16. Actually most of the polls are outside their listed margin of error

You might want to look a little closer. Those that had Bush winning by three points were off by four points and most of them had margin of errors of +/-2.5 or 3 points. Those that had Gore winning by two were only off by one point and so they were inside their margin of error. Lets take a look:

This one missed it's margin of error by 1 point.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Presidential Preference (Nov. 5-6)
Margin of error +/- 2%
Bush 47%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%

This one hit inside the margin of error.

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Daily Tracking (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 46%
Gore 48%
Buchanan 0.5%
Nader 5%
Browne 0.6%
Phillips 0%
McReynolds 0%
Hagelin 0%

This one by ABC was off by four points and it's margin of error was 2.5%.

ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

This one was off by six points and had a margin of error of 3.1% so it missed it's mark by almost two points to be correct.

Battleground 2000 Daily (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3.1%

Bush 50%
Gore 45%
Buchanan --
Nader 3.5%

This one missed by ten points and had a margin of error of only 1.6%. In other words all they did was poll the Bush household.


Portrait of America Tracking (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 1.6%

Bush 49%
Gore 40%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%
Browne 1%
Phillips <1%
Hagelin<1%

This Newsweek poll hit inside the margin of error.


Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

This Newsweek poll was inside the margin of error.

Newsweek – all registered voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 41%
Gore 44%
Buchanan 0%
Nader 5%

This CBS poll nailed it!

CBS News (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 44%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%

This Fox poll did very well and infact it was more acurate than the Newsweek and Zogby poll.

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (Nov. 1-2)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 43%
Gore 43%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

This Washington Post poll was off by 4 points and had a margine of error of three points. It missed it's margin of error.

Washington Post Tracking (Nov. 2-5)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%