Washington Post daily tracking poll

[DemsUnited]

Bush 50
Kerry 47
Nader 2

Net leaned vote, likely voters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[DaveinMD]

1. I'll say this

I'm starting to get a little nervous. My I'm leary of any poll that doesn't include any undecideds.

[Mr_Spock]

2. "I'm starting to get a little nervous" - This is why I "hide thread" all

of these poll threads - just love the confidence of people flowing back and forth with the stupid polls. Imagine if they didn't have stupid polls? Personally, I think they are manipulative and should be outlawed with all the other bullcrap hack organizations out there.

[IndianaGreen]

12. BTW, I just love your bumper sticker Mr_Spock

Because "Yeehaw!" is not a foreign policy

Precious!

[Mr_Spock]

13. Hehe - looks even nicer displayed in my car for all to see!

Gotta love it.

[lancdem]

5. I think Bush had a good polling day or two

following the debate, perhaps because of the Mary Cheney thing putting Kerry on the defensive (that issues appears to dead, thank God) and that's being reflected in the tracking polls. I believe it's likely the tracking polls will swing back toward Kerry in a couple of days.

His state prospects are looking good, however.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

3. These polls from obvious NeoCon shills are designed to discourage...

...Kerry supporters.

Additionally, they are NOT taking into consideration the massive numbers of new voters that WILL be voting next month.

They also do not take into consideration the fact that a certain percentage of Republicans will either stay at home or make the switch to Kerry on Election Day.

[HFishbine]

10. Exactly

Likely voters by definition does not inlcude first time voters.

These marginal voters are often ignored by pollsters because, by their own admission, they usually aren't players in the political process. But "rarely" does not mean never, and there are plenty of signs that marginal voters are taking interest in this election. In fact, that's what they're saying.

Voters were asked: "How much attention would you say you have been giving to the presidential election. Would you say you have been following the race very closely, somewhat closely or not too closely?" About 90 percent of regular voters say they are either "very closely" or "somewhat closely" watching the race. But about 75 percent _ an extraordinarily high number _ of registered voters who "rarely" vote in major elections say they also are watching the presidential race closely.

more: http://www.newspolls.org/story.php?story_id=33

[Dancing_Dave]

20. "Likely voters" is the name of the scam!

A whole bunch of "unlikely voters" will be voting this time!

I don't believe Bush has a full 50% support. However, whether Kerry can really pull together the whole anti-Bush majority, I don't know. This could turn out to be an occassion for lots of symbolic "third party" votes, if Kerry is competely deaf to the Greens, Libertarians, 9/11 sceptics, Arab Americans etc. The ONLY thing he can do that will make a difference at this point is reach out to these groups of politically interested but outside of the the Two Parties citizens.

[cali]

11. Man, I'm tired of this

Sorry, it's just stupid sloganeering to brand any poll you disagree with as being a neocon shrill. Additionally, your sceond point fails to take into account the dems who will either stay home or make the switch to bushco.
And don't even bother to trot out that tire old chestnut "you're a troll". I'm not a troll. I just have a low tolerance for stupid.
That said, we shouldn't sweat these polls. At least not yet. And unless JK falls 7 or 8 points behind, we shouldn't sweat them at all.

[lancdem]

14. I agree

A 3-point lead is nothing for an incumbent.

[KittyWampus]

4. Why Post This Without Internal Info That Breaks It Down?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. Because it's more fun to rattle the "Chicken Little" crowd.

[DemsUnited]

8. Washington Post/ABC actually does a pretty good job

of disclosing internals but hasn't yet updated for today's numbers. Check the link if interested; should be updated soon.

http://www.washingtonpost.com

Informational purposes only -- agree with those who say that all polls should be taken with grain of salt.

[montana500]

6. its within the margin of error

guys, no offense, but who gives a fuck about national polls?

Did anyone read the Tribune story last weekend? The battleground states of the midwest put economy and jobs far ahead of terrorism. Kerry has a 10% lead in the BATTLEGROUND states and all the polls are pretty much withi nthe margin of error!!

Fuck yeah!!!!

Quit being such pansies!!!!!! Were in kick ass shape, much better than gore was.

[BlueNomad]

9. I agree

it gives me a migraine everytime people jump up and down screaming with fear. Go eat dinner, take a bath, chill out. When anybody's up by ten points, call me to wet my pants....

[Awsi Dooger]

15. It's idiotic to dismiss national polls

State polls are MUCH LESS RELIABLE than national polls. That has been demonstrated time and again. I've studied more than a thousand polls via Excel since '96 and it could not be more crystal. Most importantly, state polls are less frequent and tend to lag national polls, often by as much as a week. If either side gains nationally, it will not show up immediately in state polls, not even close.

Also, with so many states that virtually mirror the nation as a whole, it's foolhardy to think the battleground states will not be effected by a swing in national preference. Kerry has almost zero chance to win the presidency state-by-state if he loses the national vote. National preference between now and November 2 is much more important than state numbers. Kerry can overcome a 1 or 2 point deficit thru undecideds. A consensus poll deficit larger than that on election eve is probably fatal.

I hosted debate watching parties among apolotical voters during all the debates, identical to 1996 and 2000. There was a distinct positive response to Bush among the women at my debate party after debate #3. I reported that on DU Wednesday night. They loved his closing statement and particularly the answer to the final question about strong women in his life. Notice it is Bush's positives that have changed since the debate, not Kerry's negatives. I'm convinced a percentage of the extremely critical block of women, primarily the 35 -55 group, who are notoriously volatile, have at least briefly returned to Bush.

[lancdem]

19. Rove says Bush needs to be up by 4

going into the weekend before the election.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

[regnaD kciN]

16. ...but TIED among registered voters.

i.e. No big deal, yet.

Meanwhile, I notice that Bush, while still in the lead, has dropped in the Rasumssen tracking poll as compared to the day before. In other words, he mustn't have had a very good polling day yesterday.

[Teaser]

17. Where are the RV numbers?

If it's tied among RVs (which it was yesterday) but moving in LVs, its almost certainly model error...

[mvd]

18. I know - how do these pollsters really know who's a likely voter?

I'm still not panicking at all.