Yahoo: AP analysis- 8 States May Decide Election (very good news)

[Guaranteed]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041017/ap_on_el_pr/road_to270&cid=694&ncid=716

WASHINGTON - Eight states worth just 99 electoral votes are up for grabs in the closely fought presidential race, with the White House going to whoever conquers this shrinking battlefield.

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Their strategies focused heavily — but not exclusively — on essentially tied races in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

<snip>

Taken together, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania account for 68 of the 99 votes from these tossup states. They form a triangle of influence unmatched on the political map.

<snip>

With 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes, according to an Associated Press analysis. Sixteen states plus the District of Columbia are with Kerry or leaning his way for 217 electoral votes.
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This analysis, it seems, gives Minnesota to Kerry, while keeping the Gore states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico as tossups (43 EVs).

With 217 EV's, according to this, Kerry needs another 53 EVs. And it's pretty clear we're going to win Pennsylvania, so that brings it down to 32.

So, we need 32 EVs out of Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

That is SO doable. All we need is either:

Florida and any other state but NH.

Ohio, Wisconsin and any other state.

Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa.

Ohio, Nevada and Iowa.

Ohio, NH, NM, and Nevada.
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But, NOT Wisconsin, NM, NH, Nevada and Iowa- those fall 1 EV short.

And don't forget the possibility of Colorado splitting it's EV's- for a race this close, one can see how important it is for us to play it conservative and just take the 4 or 5 EVs.

[sonicx]

1. I REALLY wish it didn't have to come down to...

ohio or florida...

[Guaranteed]

2. It's not just that...

I think we really NEED Florida.

[sonicx]

3. that's very scary...

of course, we can probably trust jeb this time...

ugh

[Steelangel]

4. I don't think we should trust Jed. He will 'fix' the votes again.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Agreed. There's simply NO WAY...

...we're ever going to be awarded a victory in Florida. It's impossible. Osama bin Laden would have a better chance of being elected Prime Minister of Israel.

We better have a scenario that doesn't include Florida, or we're sunk.

[DarthDem]

6. I Don't Know

There's a limit to what can be stolen. Think of all of the horseshit they pulled last time, and it still wasn't ultimately decided by Jebby; it took the Felonious Five. This time, Kerry may get more votes than Gore in Florida, and everyone is far more viligant for the activities of these criminals.

Can they really steal a 50-47 victory away from Kerry? I really doubt it.

[Lexingtonian]

7. why get complicated?

Of that list, IMHO the ones in doubt for Kerry now are really only Iowa and Florida. But the ground operations I've heard about seem so well thought-out and staffed that I'm not going to worry.

I think that in a week and a half we'll be wondering whether states like Arizona, Virginia, and Missouri are going to tip to Kerry, not whether he's going to win.

[bigtree]

8. NH and NM together could do it along with the others

Looks like we have a good chance in both.

[cap]

9. PA is Kerry country...

no doubt about it...

Phila and Pittsburgh have massive GOTV. The collar counties will go D and there are enough PO'd Military families in the countryside. (Military Families are 54% in favor of Kerry).

[SoCalDem]

10. It's very do-able

scroll down a little for the interactive map


EV possibilities..your way