New NC Poll - Not very good news

[Thrill]

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, nationwide polls show President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat. However in North Carolina, that is not the case. According to a recent WRAL poll, the president maintains a commanding lead.

Although many political analysts believe Kerry bested Bush in the debates, the latest WRAL poll shows his performance hardly moved North Carolina voters. The Bush/Cheney ticket holds a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over the Kerry/Edwards ticket with the challengers closing the gap by just 1 percent since last month's poll.

http://www.wral.com/politics/3836860/detail.html

[FrankenforMN]

1. It was a reach to begin with

...Not that I'm giving up. I think Arkansas will be closer, especially if Clinton pays them a visit.

[David Dunham]

2. I agree that Arkansas will be closer.

[NDFan]

3. ...

Bush can barely get over 50% in a state he won by double digits in 2000?

I still believe NC is a toss-up.

[FrankenforMN]

4. I think if Kerry wins North Carolina

it will mean that the election is a blowout anyway.

[Bossy Monkey]

5. Does Bowles have any chance? Reverse coattails sometimes work, too

I'm in SC and have wan hopes of something similar happening with Inez. Not that I'm that optimistic about her winning either, but hoping.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Sounds about right

North Carolina has been 13 points more Republican than the national average the last two cycles. A vice presidential nominee should be worth about 4 points in his state. In a tie race, North Carolina will lean 8-9 points Bush. Only a decisive Kerry win, 5 points or more nationwide, might drag North Carolina along..

[angee_is_mad]

7. Senate and Gov?

I agree that NC was a stretch for them but how are Bowles and Easley doing?

i saw some great Bowles commercials today stating that Burr is a flip flopper. How ironic!

[atre]

18. Bowles is down, but within the MOE; Easley is way, way up

nm

[angee_is_mad]

29. Fantastic!!!!!

A friend of mine is independent. Yeah right! He said he was voting for bush, but Easley has his vote for Gov. Ballantine scares him.
I'm working on the bush thing:-)

[Gore1FL]

8. Not a bad thing -- I mean victory would have been cool in NC

I think the power of Edwards is beyond his home state -- additionally, Bush had to spend money in an otherwise gimme state.

Edwards and NC were more strategic than tactic al to begin with, IMHO.

[Demfromct]

9. Not bad news

I dont find this as bad news. If Kerry won NC, then we were on our way to a blowout of bibical proportions.

[newyawker99]

22. Hi Demfromct!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Lex]

10. In the most populated counties in NC, we're trying to get the Dems to VOTE

in great numbers because the more populated counties tend to be the more heavily Democratic---we can outvote a large segment of the more rural, less populated Repug voters.

[Lexingtonian]

11. well...

It's not fun, but there is good news in that Republicans are evidently falling back at a pretty constant rate of 1%/year in the state. Bush 2000, 56%. Dole 2002, 54%. Bush 2004, probably 52% (Kerry 47%, Other 1%, depends on fundie turnout).

You folks are going to get to full swing state status in '06 and go Democratic in '08. Sorry about this one, though.

[friesianrider]

12. Bad news being what?

That's like being depressed because we're behind in Utah.

Please. I think we'd all benefit from posting positive news not negative news, unless it's really relevent; this, IMHO, is not.

[mellowinman]

16. We're behind in Utah?

We're DOOMED! DOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!

[RummyTheDummy]

13. Survey USA had it B50-K47

As of 10-18

[atre]

20. Ding Ding Ding

We have a winner! I've noticed all the Mason Dixon polls are slanted towards Bush about 3-5% more than other contemporaneous polls.

They may be "reputable" as some proclaimed in another thread, but so is Gallup.

[ISUGRADIA]

14. Come on! 8 points does not mean this is over by far THIS IS NOT BAD NEWS

The margain of error is 4 pts! It could be tied, and given other polls I have a feeling it is more like a 2-3 point race with Bush a bit ahead.

All this means is GET PPL TO VOTE on 11-2. It is not over and NC is very winnable. People need to back off polls a bit as if they are a god lording over us.

And how the hell is 8 pts a "commanding lead" with a MOE of 4 pts. Not surprising reporters have no stat background.

[mellowinman]

15. We're Doomed! DOOOOOMED!!!!

Without NC we don't have a chance! If only we'd nominated Mickey Mouse instead of John Kerry! We're DOOOOOMED!

Oh, sorry.

That was last month's theme.

[liberalpragmatist]

17. Bush'll win it but it'll be close and it'll be a tossup in 2008

I expect Edwards when all is said and done to have cut down Bush's margin in the state from 13 to around 4 or 5. That's pretty consistent with this and the SUSA poll from a couple days back.

All told, it'll be a pretty nice showing, that'll definitely show the state to be in play next cycle.

And who knows - if Kerry upticks nationally in the polls a few points on election day and there's strong turnout, it might be won.

[atre]

19. FYI, this poll is an extreme outlier

Every other poll they've shown on the internets, particularly Electoral-Vote.com, has Kerry within 5 points in N.C.

[loudsue]

21. I live in RURAL N.C., and just moved here from another RURAL town/area NC.

BOTH of these rural areas have some things in common:

The fundies make a lot of noise (a LOT of noise), but the regular everyday people are totally sick of bush.

When rural southerners say things like: "Well, he had 9/11 and the terrorists to deal with, but he's just made some decisions I'm not sure were the right ones, bless his heart, and now we're kinda in a mess...."

Then you KNOW they are REALLY pissed at bush!!!!

These are 2 counties that are in the central part of the state, farmers and textile mill workers (by family history), and they REALLY don't understand how bush has gotten the country into the mess it's in.

There are those who are deeply entrenched in the Southern Baptist Convention, and they do make a great deal of noise, and put a lot of pressure on folks. But I think when the majority of the people are in the privacy of the voting booth, they're going to pull the lever for someone who's going to bring some change, and act like an adult.

Of course, I'm just idealistic about my neighbors, 'cause they're pretty nice folks! But I think there's going to be a VERY close race in North Carolina come Nov. 2 between bush and Kerry.

:kick:

[jmowreader]

27. For Yankees: How to Speak Southern, Insults and Brickbats Division

It has been said that a Southerner can get away with the most heinous insult if the words "bless his heart" or "bless her heart" are added to the phrase.

As in "that baby is so cute, bless her heart, even though she was born two weeks after her parents got married."

Bush fucked around on the tobacco quota buyout for years, he's totally fucked up the rest of the ag sector, he hasn't done shit to help the textile mill workers damaged by globalization and he's engineered the tax code to encourage manufacturing to go overseas. In North Carolina, we have tobacco, ag, textiles and manufacturing.

A fundamentalist Democrat is a fundamentalist Republican who worked at a textile mill for 50 years until they closed it and sent all the machinery to Vietnam. Bush is going to surprise everyone in this state by losing, and losing big.

[WI_DEM]

23. an 8-point lead is not "commanding" as the article says

Also, the chimp is only at 51%--not that great.

[Minimus]

24. I heard of other polls showing 3 point difference and

electoral vote.com has NC as barely bush.

[jefferson_dem]

25. I'll take Survey USA over Mason Dixon. They show it as a 3 point race.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NC041018presgovsen.pdf

[DemsUnited]

26. Mason Dixon polls are skewed to the right

Put them in the credibility-challenged class with Strategic Vision and Gallup.

[HFishbine]

28. That's a Mason Dixon poll

Don't believe it.