TENNESSEE: Bush 60, Kerry 38

[liberalpragmatist]

WTF?

This according to SUSA, whose other polls released the last few days are pretty good.

But a 22-pt. Bush lead? Kerry under 40? Bush at 60?

I have my reasons to doubt this. Tennessee will probably go Bush barring a big Kerry win, but not by 22 points - more like between 2 and 5.

Am I wrong? Zogby had Kerry just 1 or 2 points down the day before. Of course, Zogby has also consistently had Kerry doing better in Tennessee than other polls, so both might be outliers.

But 22 points?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

1. It does sound totally BS

[zoeb]

2. They're just jealous cause Kerry

has teeth...I can say this cause I'm in a neighboring Appalachia state...which has banjos...lmao

[DaveinMD]

3. I don't trust survey usa

no matter the results. They use automated polling. Very unreliable. I wouldn't let my clients use this method of polling.

[jkupski]

4. I wouldn't count Kerry out

I live in Northeast Tennessee, which is a heavily republican area, and I've noticed a significant difference here compared to four years ago.

In 2000, the number of Bush/Cheney bumper stickers and yard signs outnumbered the Gore/Leiberman stickers and signs by about 10:1. This year Bush/Cheney outnumbers Kerry/Edwards by 3:2, give or take. Given that this area has been historically republican for a long time, I can't see that as being good news for a Bush win in Tennessee next month.

(edited to fix poor grammar)

[cynatnite]

17. Even in Kingsport

I think it's about even as far as signs go.

I do think Bush will carry the state, but it will be damn close. I think if Kerry had come here and did some campaigning he might have carried it.

I've seen the right wing-nuts first hand and it's a scary sight. It goes beyond ignorance, IMO. It's more like a constant state of denial. My mother's a great example.

Either way, I think this state will be a squeaker for *

[newyawker99]

19. Hi jkupski!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jkupski]

23. Thanks

Thanks for the welcome, newyawker!

I'm actually a expatriate New Yorker myself...

[undergroundrailroad]

5. According to a source that I use, Louisiana is

a "strong" Bush state with Bush leading at 50% vs Kerry's 32%.

Here is the link.

Undergroundrailroad :hi:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

6. Who has the other 18 percent???

:shrug:

[undergroundrailroad]

10. Excellent Question! Polling Methodology:

here is the link that explains the polling methodology.

BTW, here is another interactive electoral map link.


UGRR

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

18. I didn't see the answer to my question in your link. If shrub has 50 and

Kerry 32 in LA, where's the other 18 percent? People who say they are not likely to vote? Nader?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Less Than Twenty But Certainly More Than Five...

Al Gore lost the state by four points and he was their congressman, senator and son of their senator....

[fujiyama]

8. It's probably an outlier

but I doubt that Kerry has much of a chance there....My guess is Bush is up 10 in that state tops.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Clinton-Gore Carried It Twice...

We probably won't carry it this millenium....


I long for 1976 when Carter carried every state of the old Confederacy cept the capitol of it...

[CMO]

11. Zogby

is the only accurate poll. The others aren't worth anything. But I will say that 90% of my crazy relatives live in Tennessee and they are all right wing nuts. They are voting for Bush because he is pro live and thats it. They don't look at the important issues. It makes me ill to think about it. I was there last week and my cousin got mad at me for being a Kerry supporter and she called him a baby killer. I almost hit the roof. Anyway, enough about my crazy family. :grr:

[progressivebydesign]

12. SURVEYUSA is owned by the USA TODAY people.. **

Not exactly the most objective survey people in the world. Don't buy into it... they're ALWAYS skewed Repub. **The call themselves "AMERICA'S POLLSTER", sound familiar? (USA TODAY, AMERICA'S NEWSPAPER)

[tritsofme]

16. That's not true

USA Today is owned by Gannet Newspapers IIRC, and SUSA is owned by Hypotenuse Inc.

[Bleacher Creature]

13. No way

I don't think Tenn. is in play, but there's no way it has comparable numbers with Texas.

[elperromagico]

14. Fe fi fo fum, I smell the blood of an OUTLIER.

:D

[pabloseb]

15. Makes some sense

The chimp is doing well at red states. That's why national polls are close but Kerry keeps doing well in the battlegrounds.

[geek tragedy]

20. And people wonder why Kerry stopped campaigning in the Confederacy. eom

[unfrigginreal]

21. Really, Tennessee would be nice but who cares?

You really like that Kerry picture, huh?

[Tippy]

22. There have been last I heard

Over 300,000 new voters registered here in TN..They are also saying that apx. 2/3 of those are Democrats...soooooooo Don't write us off....