ELECTION MODEL CURRENT STATE POLL-WTD NATIONAL % : KERRY 48.42, BUSH 46.41

[TruthIsAll]

Believe the model. The race is NOT tied.

And Kerry will get at least 2/3 of the undecided.

I don't cherry-pick, just try to avoid the Repub pollsters, if possible.

I don't drop Zogby or ARG, if they are, God forbid, TWO days old.

I savor the truth, like fine wine.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ND_Democrat]

1. Very Nice Post

and the avatar is pretty good too.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi ND_Democrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Steelangel]

2. *bow*

thank for posting the updates!

[V. Kid]

3. The Page

I'm quite glad to see a decent page for predicting the election. The electoral-vote.com page is interesting, but rather annoying. For one the problems with Gallup have been stated all over the net, two Strategic Vision constantly has been shown to overestimate republican support and three with these things in mind the webmaster of that site insists upon 'breaking ties' by using w/e poll had a shorter collection day. I mean jeesh why use Eaglton-Rutgers or Zogby when you can use the notoriously un-reliable Strategic Vision or Gallup? Oh well.

[newyawker99]

13. Hi V. Kid!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[charleston1]

4. NBC poll

I got polled on the NBC poll the other night. It was the first time in my life I have been in a National poll. They had it 48-48 IIRC. Is that poll included?

[TruthIsAll]

6. NBC IS INCLUDED WITH 17 OTHER NATIONALS. CHECK THE SITE

tia

[elperromagico]

5. I like the idea that even only a 50% allocation of undecideds

gives Kerry a win. That's encouraging, though I do believe the undecideds will break for Kerry. Simple logic dictates that if undecideds aren't backing Bush by now, they won't back Bush on 2 November.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

8. Yes, that is lovely, isn't it.

Kerry is solid in this model. :)

[Awsi Dooger]

7. What the heck is delaying ARG?

A few state polls recently, but otherwise not heard from nationally since October 2-4. No updated Kerry/Bush number or Bush approval rating.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Well, they have one more week. Expect a poll any day.

I'm waiting. Meantime, The Economist seems to be the most consistent.

[Lilli]

10. Thanks for the great work! n/t

[swag]

11. I try to check your site once a day, TIA

along with Ruy Teixeira's, Jerome Armstrong's, Chris Bowers' spots on both "myDD" and "Swing State Project, and Sam Wang's.

Great perspectives that keep me fighting hard.

Thank you.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Thanks, swag, I'm in good company

tia