Electoral math

[detroit]

This projection pretty much tracks with my own. It assumes that the undecideds will break for the challenger by the same percentage as the 50-year average. I actually think Kerry will get more of the undecideds than that:

<http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html>

The assumptions:
-Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it - The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

On another page, the site says that, even if undecided voters get split equally between the candidates, Bush still does not get 270 Electoral votes - but niether does Kerry. In that case, Minnesota would be too close to call and whoever won there would win the White House. I'd hate to be the GOP and have to rely on Minnesota to win.
Interesting, eh?

[Wickerman]

1. I'd hate to be the GOP and have to rely on Minnesota to win.

I agree - as a Minnesotan Dem :7

So its all coign down to MInnesota? Everything relaible I have seen says Kerry and the get out the vote effort by the DFL is very good.

[Gavinicus]

3. Kerry is a lock in Minnesota

Between Kerry, the DFL, several congressional and local races, the unions, this is going to be a blowout for voter turnout. In Minnesota, that means dems win. B-)

But don't be complacent. Get off your asses and work. :bounce: Take 11/1 and 11/2 off (more if you can, or if the Bush economic miracle has already left you with extra time on your hands). :shrug:

[kostya]

4. <broken record on> Yes, yes! GOTV people, ignore all the

polls from here on out or EV projections. This one's going to be won on the streets, the phones, in LTTE, etc., etc. It's time for the final push! - K

:bounce:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. We will win based on my latest estimates

Which includes Ohio for Kerry.

[Czolgosz]

5. I think NM and IA are almost beyond debate as states going Blue

I'm really curious about WV, VA, NC, FL, AR, MO, CO, AZ, and NV -- I don't think we'll need them to win, but I expect we'll take at least 3 of those 9.

[AirAmFan]

6. Great news! Since Minnesota allows registration right through November 2,

it's still not to late to ramp up efforts to get people who've NEVER voted and NEVER registered to the polls or--even better--to vote early by absentee ballot.

In most other states, voter registration closed three weeks ago, and the pool of potential voters already is limited. But not in Minnesota!

One very bad feature of electoral administration in Minnesota is that people who want to vote early need to put valid excuses on applications for absentee ballots. (See http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=106x11538
for a comparison of early voting rules and timetables in all battleground states.) This makes getting people to vote early in Minnesota much more complicated than pushing early voting in New Mexico, Iowa, or even Florida. Doubtless many more Republicans than Democrats will be voting absentee in Minnesota--Republicans always benefit from complexity in election procedures.

I wonder whether the party has enough volunteers going out to get people to request absentee ballots, and then going back to make sure they fill them out correctly! Such efforts concentrated in that one state could make the difference if your analysis is right about Minnesota. Wish I were there to help.