Scripps Poll - Kerry takes 6pt lead in Ohio - Kerry 49% Bush 43% RV

[unfrigginreal]

Scripps poll: Kerry ahead in key state of Ohio

By THOMAS HARGROVE and GUIDO H. STEMPEL III
Scripps Howard News Service
October 22, 2004

- Democrat John Kerry has a lead as high as 6 percent over President Bush in the key battleground state of Ohio, according to a survey completed Thursday night at Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center.

Among registered voters, Kerry leads 49 percent to Bush's 43 percent, with 2 percent saying they will support third party candidates and 6 percent undecided. Among likely voters (people who say they are committed to voting next month) Kerry's lead is 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 1 percent going to other candidates.

Since the margin of error for both calculations is 5 percent, Kerry's lead is not decisive.

The poll found that Kerry has solidly rallied his Democratic base, garnering support from 94 percent of self-described "strong Democrats" while the president is supported by 93 percent of "strong Republicans." Kerry, however, is doing slightly better among independents.

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=OHIOPOLL-10-22-04&cat=PP

[59millionmorons]

1. ABC News

Reported on Wednesday that Kerry's internals in OH has him leading. This along with Gallups new OH poll should have Rove shaking.

[lancdem]

4. If Kerry wins Ohio

he wins the election. Period.

[Supersedeas]

2. Hay-Ho...WAY to GO...OHIO (OH, America is counting on you!!)

[fishwax]

3. Fantastic news

It looks like Ohio is consistently trending towards Kerry. For the last couple of days it has looked like PA was solidifying for Kerry too. If we could get those two states on fairly solid ground and give Kerry that much more time to kick around to other battleground states, we could maybe get something of a landslide started :D

I'm happy just having the lead, and I do believe Ohio will go our way. But I get this feeling we need the victory to be substantial so it will be conclusive on 11/2.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

5. GOP tea leaves -- Bush in Pa. again and again and again

I know he's making a Buckeye cameo this afternoon, but Bush for the last week is definitely refocused on Pa. I think Rove sees a practically unbeatable groundgame for Kerry in Ohio and hopes to sneak in a Keystone victory to cancel out a turned-to-blue Ohio. Meantime, Bush still has to defend Florida ... his margin for error is shrinking daily.

[fugop]

12. Two words on Pennsylvania:

BILL CLINTON!

[RamboLiberal]

16. Two other Words

Pittsburgh & Philadelphia

Enthusiasm high in Pittsburgh area - Wednesday rally had probably 20,000.

And you know Philly will be pumped next week with the Big Dog speaking.

That Alabama in the middle of PA won't be enough to cover.

And was encouraged last night to hear a Catholic clergyman on Hardball last night saying many Catholics in his area NW PA (conservative area) are enquiring about the larger issues of supporting life (i.e. not one-issue voting). Seemed to indicate many want to vote for Kerry and ignore the Catholic clergy whack jobs that say otherwise. Pittsburgh Catholic is running an ad signed by scores of priests, nuns, laity saying not to vote one issue.

[DCal]

13. Exactly - excellent analysis

The problem with Bush's strategy is that Pennsylvania is almost certain to go to Kerry even if Bush campaigns there every day until the election. The fact that Bush is focusing on Pennsylvania is a sign of absolute desperation by the Bush camp. They are flailing around trying to find some state, any state that they can break through in.

[WI_DEM]

6. Ohio reports early on election night, it will be interesting

if it is given to Kerry off the bat, we could be in for a great night, more likely the talking heads will say, "we cannot make a projection--Ohio is too close to call" but that is ok too. I think we will win it.

[lancdem]

7. Do the polls close at 7 p.m. there?

[TruthIsAll]

8. Can't wait to update Election Model for this in the PM

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel

[Grillymom]

9. Our polls close at 7:00p.m.

The latest news is that Kerry has Ohio, Pennsylvania and, dare I sa it, Florida!

[Teaser]

10. Can I see your code?

what's the model written in? MATLAB?

[pmbryant]

11. Very small sample size, unfortunately

That means the statistical margin of error is very large. But still, this is a promising sign, when combined with other recent poll results in Ohio.

Based on past history, though, I am very wary about state polls in general, and especially ones with small sample sizes.

--Peter

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Excellent points

We shouldn't get giddy over this type poll any more than discouraged over a couple of poor national polls. As you indicate, state polls are extremely questionable, especially if the sample is small.

To quote Dr. Henry Lee, something wrong. Either the national polls that average a 2 point Bush lead are not accurate, or this type of Kerry margin in an Ohio poll is wrong. Most likely a little of both.

There is no way Ohio is suddenly 5-8 points more Dem leaning than the national in general. Job loss and economic conditions do not alter the basic partisanship of a state to that degree, especially in a heated polarized era. Here is Ohio since '88, with comparison to the national popular vote average at right:

Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican

[swag]

15. Chris Bowers has a good blurb on big Kerry mojo in Ohio:

www.mydd.com

It's not just this one poll.

Kerry is accelerating. Average the last 9 polls and Kerry has a one point edge, leaving Bush at lonely 47%. Factor in "incumbent" rule and you can spell toast with one letter: W.

KEEP FIGHTING! WE WILL WIN!