Iowa & Wisconsin: Odds of going to Bush?

[Cush]

Honestly, what are the odds that one or both could flip over to Bush? Any instate residents with some inside/local info?

It seems that if they do flip, they could "cancel out" Ohio going for Kerry.

I'm a little concerned, but not packing

[cubsfan forever]

1. Wisconsin is safely in the Kerry column (Zogby)

Don't be misled by freeper polls out of Iowa. They have voted Democratic the last 4 elections.

Professor 2

[Massacure]

2. Iowa is going to Kerry. Look what happened in the Primary.

Wisconsin will be close, There are tons of Bush yard signs in my neighborhood. There are tons of Kerry bumper stickers though. I wonder which are a more accurate indicator.

[RevCheesehead]

4. Yeah, but the Freepers I know look scared...really scared.

The Kerry signs have been hard to come by...the Green Bay office would only give me 6 - and needless to say, they're gone already. They were also out of pins, so I ordered a 100-pack to pass around.

Seriously, I think this will break like the last Feingold election...Russ was running behind in the polls, but he ran on principle: no outside campaign money, and he won by a narrow margin.

Lesson: I think WI people respect honor and integrity. Most of the vets I have spoken with are very angry about the Swifties. Most people seem to be worried about the economy and healthcare. I truly believe WI will go Kerry by at least 5 points!

[shraby]

6. That is exactly why I voted for Feingold.

No money.<G>

[tedoll78]

3. If Kerry wins one plus Ohio, he wins.

Gore states + NH + OH = 284

284 - WI(10) = 274.

And if Kerry wins Nevada as well, he can afford to lose BOTH Iowa and Wisconsin.

274 + NV(5) = 279.

279 - IA(7) = 272.

I think Ohio and Pennsylvania are foregone conclusions at this point, given the Undecideds Tilt and the New Voter Factor. The states to watch now are Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. And though I'm not from there, Wisconsin is looking a bit better these days. The Wisconsin Public Radio poll gives Kerry a small lead, as does the Zogby poll.

And there's hope for Iowa - 50000 new Democrats have registered to vote there this year, compared to only 9000 Republicans.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

5. A good rule of thumb

Any state where Bush's average performance doesn't exceed 47% is a state that is ripe for picking. Arizona, New Mexico and Arkansas are all looking that way. And his support in West Virginia is cratering, as well.