OHIO Isn't Enough

[liberalpragmatist]

I think some other DU'ers have been pointing this out. All the following scenarios assume that Kerry wins Ohio and NH.

If Kerry wins NH and Ohio but loses Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico and everything else stays the same, Kerry *still* loses: 276 to 262.

I think New Mexico's in better shape than the other two, but even if, of those three, Kerry wins New Mexico, he still loses: 271 to 267.

If New Mexico and Wisconsin go to Bush and Kerry carries Iowa, it deadlocks at 269-269. If Bush wins Maine's 2nd Congressional District, then Bush wins 270-268.

So Kerry has to at least carry Wisconsin out of those 3 in order to win. Either that or both Iowa and New Mexico.

Hence, we need to fight even harder. Our strategy should prioritize in this order:

1) Get FLORIDA: Defeatest DU'ers who say the fix is already in are being counterproductive. I don't doubt some dirty tricks, but it can be won nevertheless. And if we win BOTH Florida and Ohio, it's in the bag. Bush could win Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Oregon and still lose.

Plus, if we get Florida but not Ohio there's still not much chance of a chance that Bush will win.

2) Shore up New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin - We need to win at least 2 out of the 3. Okay, actually we could carry only Wisconsin and we'd probably win. But we need to win at least 2 out of the 3 to be secure.

3) Focus on 2nd-tier swingers: Nevada and Colorado are critical here. If Bush wins Iowa and Wisconsin, a Kerry win in Nevada or Colorado (or both :) ) would also guarantee victory.

4) 3rd-tier swingers: DU'ers in relatively close states that have been abandoned (Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas, Arizona, North Carolina) fight your asses off! If turnout is strong, we could sneak out an upset or two, which would virtually guarantee us victory.

Just a little roundup!

[BillZBubb]

1. No, Ohio isn't enough

But Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin lock it up. Assuming we get either NM or NH too. Wisconsin is the one big question mark.

[The Chronicler]

2. We need Wisconsin.

[tedoll78]

3. I agree with you.

Florida is well within our reach, and turnout (as evidenced in the WP story out today) is already HEAVILY in our favor.

Florida has had over 2 million new voters move in since 2000 - and OVER HALF have been minorities. This demographic shift alone should knock the state into our column.

And I also tend to agree about Floridian defeatism. Not that I'm a pollyanna.. I think Jeb and his cronies will try most anything. But I also think that the margin in Kerry's favor will end-up being a few ten thousand rather than a few hundred. And it's a LOT more difficult to dispose of tens of thousands of votes.

[kostya]

8. Somehow that sounds like famous last words... eom

[tedoll78]

12. eh?

..?

[snowbear]

4. Hey...

Are those little "JK's" on President Kerry's tie?? :)

[DaveinMD]

5. we are going to win

all three of NM, IA and WI. WI will be the closest of the three.

[Lefta Dissenter]

6. hey,

bush isn't getting Wisconsin!

What are all of the Wisconsinites doing between now and the election? I'm working phones this weekend, doing training on Wednesday, working at the tentatively-scheduled rally on Thursday, phoning on Friday, driving canvassers for ACT on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and working a 14 1/2 hour shift at the polls on Nov 2.

And sleeping off my celebratory hangover on the 3rd! :hangover:

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Good for you! But keep working - that's the key

We have to be realistic - we stand a chance of losing Wisconsin. It doesn't mean we will - nothing is inevitable. We just have to work hard to make sure Wisconsin is won.

[Dudley_DUright]

17. Thanks so much for helping Kerry take the state of my birth

I refuse to believe that Wisconsinites will go for Shrub. They have way more sense than that.

[snowbear]

7. And...

..the tie also looks like it has '04's on it too!

(p.s.. ever feel like you're talking to yourself? :crazy: LOL)

[NAO]

9. Never thought of myself as a "third-tier swinger" (AZ)

Don't be surprised if a few third-tier swingers go blue, or even if one or two "solid reds" go blue.

The local Democratic party in Arizona has tried several times to convince the campaign that support for Kerry is much stronger than is believed. I have seen the same type of thing from many other third-tier swingers and even from some red states.

[liberalpragmatist]

20. Actually, there was an excellent article by Tom Oliphant in the Globe

He said that Arizona was pretty close, and actually many Democratic party activists have encouraged the Kerry campaign not to advertize there. The reasoning is that the state is close enough through polarization and the news cycle anyway. They don't want Bush spending any more money in the state. So they're strategy is to keep both official campaigns out, all the spin - OUT, and let the news speak for itself. Couple that with a good GOTV machine and the thinking is that Arizona *MIGHT* go blue.

Which would be fantastic. That and Virginia would be spectacular.

[NAO]

26. There Was Also An Article in The Arizona Daily Star (link)

http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/allheadlines/40342.php

Kerry urged to retain Arizona ads

Published: 09.24.2004
By Joe Burchell
ARIZONA DAILY STAR

"Arizona Democratic leaders say presidential candidate John Kerry's decision to pull his television advertising here doesn't mean he's giving up on the state."

"In fact, with two new polls showing the gap closing between Kerry and President Bush, Democrats believe cancellation of television ads that were scheduled to start Oct. 5 will actually just be a delay of a week or so."

"On Wednesday, Democratic Congressmen Raul Grijalva and Ed Pastor are supposed to meet with Kerry campaign officials to press for restoration of the Arizona television campaign."

full article at above link

[jayman2]

11. But we may get a bonus...

...in Arkansas, Virginia, Colorado or Nevada. I think we'll bag Ohio, NH and Wisconsin. Iowa has been squirrely in the last couple of days which I don't understand. Florida is the most opaque for all the obvious reasons.

[Guaranteed]

13. Yes, yes and yes.

Yeah, yes, your analysis is correct sir.

These are the numbers, folks, this is THE scenario. It's what we're working with.

Wisconsin has become the third most important battleground state, next to OH and FL.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

14. Very good clear analysis, thanks

And while DU'ers sometimes miss these important points, you can bet that the K/E campaign is well on top of all of these scenarios.

I agree that Florida isn't a lost cause. Activists have been there for a long time, trying to at least diminish the expected cheating by Jeb and his friends. I can see us winning FL by a wide margin, and I can see it being completely stolen. But there is absolutely no reason to count FL out at this point.

I'm hoping the electoral math is very clear on Nov. 2 and Kerry locks it early.

[snowbear]

15. c'mon..

01. President Kerry will win.

02. Someone.. anyone... am I going nutz :crazy: or does that tie have JK's and 04's on it?

[liberalpragmatist]

18. No, you're sane (sort of)

He definitely has a personalized tie that has a bunch of little "JK"'s on it. No '04's though. Just American flags.

[sonicx]

16. Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico are going to Kerry, people are

freaking out because of one or two bad polls. He's gonna get them, damnit!! :D

[blondeatlast]

19. Arizona will turn blue, but it'll be a squeaker.

I swear we will deliver the state though.

[snowbear]

21. :o)

Thank you liberalpragmatist!!

:cry: *sniff* Now I can wipe my tears! ~LOL~ :hug: :)

[kostya]

22. We really need a wringing of the hands smilie on DU.

Stop the whining. GOTV.

[snowbear]

23. yeah really...

But hey.. I do see 04's on there... Look closely. They're on there.. :bounce:

[Awsi Dooger]

24. If we win Ohio, it's a Kerry night

That state figures to mirror the national vote. Don't believe polls that indicate a huge disparity in the national/Ohio numbers. And it's in the same region as so many other critical states. I love our chances if we snag Ohio.

I completely agree with not giving up on Florida. Just look at all the cynicism we've faded -- Bush will pull out of the debates or they will be cancelled, Osama will be paraded before the nation, a major terrorist strike prior to the election tipping the advantage to Bush. Of course, those last two still have a ways to go.

But tagging along with those fears are Diebold/Jeb pessimism, often pure concession. Garbage. It's much more difficult to rig a state with multiple forms of voting, like Ohio and Florida. You can cross-check similar counties in terms of registration and voting history to see if the partisan percentages hold up, from optical scan, etc. to Diebold. In Florida there is a 50/50 senate race between Castor and Martinez. The GOP would have to rig that race also, because the numbers should be near identical to the presidential race. If you find a Diebold county with 55-45 for Bush and 55-45 for Castor, obviously the machine was manipulated. We are in much better shape with multiple voting methods than in 100% Diebold, no-paper trail states like Georgia and Maryland.

[Euphen]

25. I believe that #2 is more important than #1.

While polls show the race in Florida to be a tie or a slight Bush lead, Bush's approval ratings are in the high fifties, and his brother's are even higher. While this is probably still part of his "hurricane bounce," and may fade by election day, unless his approval is below 50% there he will most likely carry the state.

If the election were held today I believe Kerry would win Ohio, but lose Iowa and probably Wisconsin. His first priority should be to maintain his lead in Ohio and shore up support in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico. This doesn't mean Florida is out of reach - Kerry should at least keep Bush on the defensive there - but the Midwest is more winnable and more important.

[snowbear]

27. Maybe I haven't lost it yet ;)

Found the story about the tie and I'll be damned, it does have both JK and 04 on it! B-)

Liberalprag, after every JK.. you'll see the '04.. It's just hard to see. ( http://www.suntimes.com/output/lifestyles/cst-ftr-pink05.html )

I agree with them that it doesn't look pink. Good picture though.. and nice tie ;)

As far as the original topic (sue me.. I strayed).. Out of New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin - which one do you feel most comfortable with going to Kerry?

I'm guessing WI first. Then maybe NM in a squeaker.

[milkyway]

28. We need 2 of 3 from Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and either Ohio or

Florida. If we don't, then we probably wouldn't be strong enough to win the other states like Colorado. I think we're solid for Minnesota, and favored in Iowa. Brother Jeb's crime machine might stop us in Florida, but I don't think they can stop us in Ohio, even though the repugs are going to fight like crazy to suppress the vote.

[quaoar]

29. We will win Ohio and Florida

And might lose either Iowa or Wisconsin.

But I think we'll win Nevada.

Plus, I think the referendum in Colorado will pass and we will get 4 EVs there.

[snowbear]

30. Sunshine State

I agree with so many others here that we'll win Florida big time.. but that the Diebold system will prevent us from ever knowing the truth.. :puke: