prediction: NOT EVEN CLOSE: kerry 52%; bush 47%; others 1%

[unblock]

kerry will win the electoral college by more than the margin of any single contestable state.

too many new registrants, too many motivated democrats. sorry, bush-gore style close just doesn't add up this time round.

NOT EVEN CLOSE.

kerry is starting to appear as the odds-on favorite, and that will give a lot of people the comfort they need to finally decide to vote for him.

bush is toast, and it's gonna be ugly.

[Was_Immer]

1. I hope youre right. God Bless John Kerry

He needs all our help! Thoughts, Prayers, well wishes!

[BamaLefty]

2. It is over

Kerry will win by 20 EV's and by 5%.... Bush's job approval ratings suck!

[Bucky]

4. Okay, I'lll play. Kerry 51% - Bush 48%. EC vote @ 290, SCOTUS override @ 4

No election prediction is complete without a prediction of how the Supremes will vote to reinstall the monkey.

[unblock]

7. scotus will vote for kerry this time

o'conner would give anything at this point to remove the "partisan hack" stamp from her c.v.

[ProgressiveFool]

17. What

Does she need a CV for?

[unblock]

28. i think she really regrets the bush v. gore

or at least, she hoped that shrub would turn out to be a decent enough president so that people would overlook the bad decision. but with shrub proving to be a true embarrassment, it highlights the worst decision of her career and overshadows everything else she's done.

throwing the election to shrub a second time would cement that all she ever was was a partisan hack. but if she throws it to kerry this time, then maybe history would judge her more on the merits of her career, rather than just a couple of spectacular decisions.

it's all for the sake of how history will remember her.

[DaveinMD]

3. I predict

50.5-48.5 and an electoral college win of over 300 votes. We'll win both OH and FL.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. That's the best case scenario, but not impossible

I'd say your number is much more likely than Bush winning by 3 points or more, although current polls would leave you to believe otherwise.

[missouri dem]

6. The shift has started. The word is landslide.

Spread it around.

[StevenD]

8. DNC chairman says 310+

OK, I live in Las Vegas and have a Kerry campaign worker(from Boston) living in my house. Last night said worker comes in after another 16 hour day and tells me that Terry McAuliffe was in town. He said we are +2 in Florida, guarantees Ohio, and we are only down 1 here in Nevada. Said he expects 310+ EV on election day. Yea, it is third hand news to DU, but I promise I transmitted what I heard correctly.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. McAuliffe is not my favorite person

but right about now I'm loving him for saying that. :)

[IronLionZion]

20. Terry is far from perfect, but he's doing alright for now

until Howard Dean can be DNC chair and put some balls back in the Democratic party.

[gardenista]

26. YES! That's what I want, too!

And I was pleased to hear my Mom, who HATED Dean supporters during the primaries, say the same thing. She said he's really come through for Kerry, and so have his supporters! Yay Mom, yay Dean!

[The Magistrate]

9. That Is My View As Well, Mr. Block

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[robbedvoter]

10. Real numbers? Kerry 67 - W 33. After fraud, Kerry 57 - W 43

[lakeguy]

11. agreed!

[Zero Gravitas]

12. Agreed

Kerry will get 300+ EVs.
Kerry 53%, Chimp 46%, Other 1%.
Enough people have, finally, woke up. Its over for the Bushists.

[PerfectSage]

25. Nice watching the cookie(Bush base) crumble, eh

Someone should scream FIRE in the Freeperville movie theatre and watch the riot/stampede. I mean that literally on the freep!

Ding Dong, the wicked Dubya's dead

B/C No Mo’ Years :party::toast:

[tedoll78]

13. I'll be a bit more glum:

Popular Vote
Kerry? 49.6%
Chimp? 48.3%
Other? 2.1%

======================

Electoral Vote
Kerry: 277EVs
HI CA OR WA NV MN WI IL MI OH PA NY NH VT ME MA CT RI DE MD NJ DC

Bush: 261EVs
AK AR NM CO WY UT ID MT ND SD NE KS TX IA MO AR LA MS AL GA FL SC NC VA WV KY IN TN OK

[Awsi Dooger]

21. That's glum?

Sign this country up for a lifetime of glum

[tedoll78]

23. :-)

Well.. compared to the other predictions around here, that's glum.

Still, I'll be a glum man bawling my eyes out with relief when those results show-up in 10 days :)

Catharsis will be wonderful..

[quaoar]

14. Kerry 52, Bush 46, Others 2

We'll win Ohio and Florida and lose either Iowa or Wisconsin.

[mike from ri]

15. even better: K-E 54; B-C 45; Nader etc 1

Kerry: 321 electoral votes. 54%. ca,or,wa, nm, nv, mn, wi, ia, il, mi, oh, wv, pa, md, dc, de, nj, ny, ct, ri, ma, vt, nh, me, ha
b*sh: 217 electoral votes. 45%
nader: 0 electoral votes. 0.75%
others: 0 electoral votes. 0.25%
dems take senate 51-49 (counting jeffords as a dem)
dems take house 218 to 217

no kidding

[mike from ri]

16. no, i'm not being overconfident

1. Kerry was never really that far behind; the polling has been biased by a lull in enthusiasm for Kerry pre-debates; this resulted in lowered poll response rates among Kerry-leaners; when one is unenthused there is less incentive to endure a twenty minute phone interview; low enthusiasm affects the polling, not the actual voting, of the respondent; there was never such a large lull in actual voter preference; maybe just 3 or 4 points among RV.

1A. relatedly, many Kerry voters are in notoriously hard-to-poll groups: the extremely poor, the homeless (yes, some of them vote), those with language barriers, the newly registered, the highly mobile, those who spend evenings away from home, the very young, students, the over-worked.

2. Kerry has been doing better in swing states than nationally all along. the nation as a whole already knows b*sh and to the extent people can feel comfortable w him, this has already been achieved; by contrast, only swing state voters have been exposed to Kerry in relatively large doses.

2A. relatedly, in traditional election dynamics in races between incumbents and relatively unknown challengers the following rule applies: undecideds (i.e., folks already exposed to the incumbent for four years but, nonetheless, still alienated from him) tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger. thus, b*sh's poll numbers represent more of a ceiling than a floor; the opposite for K.

3. Nader (whose support is slim anyhow) will fade rapidly towards the end.

4. registration efforts, G.o.t.v., turn-out and field organization. need I say more?

5. a natural tendency of dems to "come home" b4 the end.

6. the need for the Dem base to be fired up (repubs seem not to need this factor as much) is now fulfilled (by an overwhelming first debate performance, a good 2nd debate performance, a workmanlike third debate perfomance altho marred, and a good Edwards vp debate performance).

7. Kerry continued to do well in debates (it was not necessary for bush to continue to do quite so bad as in debate #1).

8. Kerry needs to go thematic -- connects bush's anti-tax, anti-gov, anti-energy-conservation rhetoric and attitudes to long-term failures in war-on-terror.

10. Kerry is listening to the old Clinton hands rather than the old dukakis and gore hands.

11. surrogates like General Clark and John Glenn need to do their part.

12. a few lucky breaks.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. #11: Clark is doing his part

He's working hard for Kerry. I imagine John Glenn is, too.

[missouri dem]

22. I think that you got the ev about right but need to add Missouri

and Arkansas. Also agree that we take back the Senate. Hope that you are right about the house.

We are seeing a huge movement of undecideds and moderate republicans toward Kerry. The word is landslide. Try using it in a conversation with a republican and watch their reaction, you will be glad you did.

[Zero Gravitas]

24. I Like your analysis

Hope you are right! :)

[PermanentRevolution]

27. Oh, hell. Why not?

Kerry becomes the first candidate in history to make a clean sweep, carrying all 50 states. 538 EVs. 80% of the popular vote.

I know it ain't gonna happen, but just imagine seeing the entire country painted blue...

[mike from ri]

29. no, i kind of like the idea of the old slave-holding states

being isloated and separate as red states: TX, Ala. Miss. SC.

I wouldn't want a fifty state sweep.