Question about polling & early votes . . .

[GreenPoet64]

Does anyone know if Dems are turning out for early voting in greater numbers than Republicans?

Here is the question--do polls include those who have already voted?

If not, the polls in the next 11 days are only representative of those who have not yet voted.

Won't this cause the polls to be rather unreliable?

[snowbear]

1. Hmm..

I personally haven't seen any data being released yet as far as one party taking more advantage of early voting than the other..

Maybe someone else has seen something? B-)

[GreenPoet64]

2. Whoa! Statisticians please read:

This says Iowa's Dems are turning out in greater numbers. I took an advanced statistics class in college, but I'm not a statistician. However, if there are fewer Dems left to poll, that will cause the polls to shift in favor of the Republicans in the next week, making it appear as if they are winning, unless they begin to show up at the polls in similar numbers. How are the polls showing for Iowa? If my theory is true, bush should have had a spike.


http://www.dailykos.net/archives/000426.html

A Des Moines Register survey of Iowa's 10 largest counties, which account for about half of the state's 1.8 million registered voters, found that 62 percent of the 62,451 absentee ballots cast in those counties as of Wednesday came from Democrats.

That's 38,970 ballots, or more than twice the 16,933 cast by Republicans, less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 election.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Why are people who have already voted disqualified from future polls?

"Who do you support for president?"

"John Kerry. In fact, I've already voted for him!"

That preference will be registered in a poll survey just like any other. And my safest prediction: that person will be included among likely voters:)

[GreenPoet64]

4. That was my question . .

If the pollster is asking: "Who do you support for president?" then all voters would be included.

If the pollster screens out those who have already voted, and asks "Who will you vote for on Nov 2," then the results would be unreliable and most likely skewed in favor of Bush.

Any honest organization would ask the first question.

Thanks!