a look at this months polls ( don't read if poll talk bugs you)

[montana500]

After looking at all of the trends, polls, etc. Im left with a main question:

what is keeping Kerry back in the national polling? Im well aware of the fact Gore was behind much of the time in 2000. But Kerry is rarely leading nationally in the polls.

Is the medias constant whoring creating a ceiling for Kerry? It appears that way. Did the medias whoring of the lesbian comment and of TH's comments put a ceiling on Kerry?

After the first debate, Kerry jumped up big time in the polls. He did very well in 2 and 3, and for all intents and purposes I and many others were expecting his national poll numbers to be more closer to those of his post DNC numbers, with many 1-2-3 point leads nationally.

did the rights whoring of the comment really hamper his post debate gains? He really should of been hitting 49-50% consistently in national polling after those debates. No one has eer won 3 debates like that.

Im just a little confused at his national poll numbers.


Also, in looking at the recent Iowa polls I am becoming very concerned.

Gore was leading in the polls at the end in Iowa by 1-2 points. He won by a few thousand votes. Kerry is polling *behind*. Did Gore's more folksy persona do better in Iowa? I think so. That's why I would send Edwards there in a second.I know he was just in Iowa City.


Wisconsin was strange in 2000. Gore was behind in most polls by 2 late in Wisconsin and won by a hair, so Im guessing Kerry will fare better in Wisconsin.

Im still pumped and very happy, but I just wish to see a few more Kerry leads in national polls.

[wolfgirl]

1. If the polls show

Bush consistently leading - no matter the margin - then when the election goes to Kerry, Bush & Co will be able to use an argument that the ballots/machines/whaterever are wrong 'cause every one knows Bush should win the popular vote based on all the polls.

It's smoke & mirrors to support Bush....

[GOTV]

2. It's frustrating...

... to watch the polls. Kerry should be doing much better. I thought the same things about Gore.

There's still more than a week and I think Kerry has some momentum so who knows.

I think I do know why his numbers didn't rise after debates 2 & 3. It's all about expectations. Once Kerry thoroughly demolished Bush in the first debate it was a surprise and it changed minds. That was good but from then on everyone just expected Kerry to do better. The people who would be impressed by debate performance had already changed their minds.

It's like stock prices. You price doesn't go up just because you MEET expectations.

If you're not completely happy with the polls I hope you're volunteering with Kerry, Act, Moveon or groups like that. I'll be going out this afternoon to help swing Ohio.

[rhino47]

3. Hi GOTV Welcome to Du

:hi:
Stock market is under 10k,oil prices up,I think the polls are whacked.I`m doing phone banking here in Pa and I notice more for kerry then *.

[newyawker99]

8. Hi GOTV!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DeepModem Mom]

4. If the media applied the same standard to W as they do Dem Presidents...

he'd be polling in the thirties. He has us in a handbasket headed straight to hell.

[NoodleBoy]

5. many of them poll more republicans than anyone else

such as, if it were a poll of 1000 people, they'd poll 360 republicans, 330 democrats and 310 independents.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. We Need To Reopen The Gender Gap To Win...

Kerry is either tied or slightly ahead among women...

Kerry needs to win the women vote by eight percent to offset Bushs* lead among men...

[Pierre Trudeau]

7. Here's something that might make you feel better....

Earlier this year, we had a federal election in Canada. During the campaign (mercifully, election campaigns here only last for five weeks), polls kept showing that the governing Liberal Party was headed for defeat, or at best, was neck-and-neck with the Conservative Party. The media droned on about how it was an extremely close race, and they predicted either a slim minority govt. for the Liberals or a slim minority for the Conservatives.

But on election day, once the votes were counted, a very different story emerged: the Liberals won decisively. Although it was still a minority result (everyone knew that would happen), they did far better than all the media predictions: 135 seats, compared to 99 for the Conservatives. Not only that, but the recently "re-united" Conservative Party actually DECREASED their share of the popular vote compared to the previous election, when the right-wing vote was split between two different parties: even if you added the totals together, it was still more than the number of votes for the new party in this year's election.

After the election, the Canadian media spent the next two weeks pontificating about how they could have been so wrong in their predictions. :shrug:

Three days ago, I would have felt more pessimistic about the US presidential elections, but just recently, I've begun to wonder whether there's going to be a lot of puzzled pundits on Nov. 3rd, trying to explain the decisive Kerry victory and why they were so off in their predictions. :7

Presumably, they'll blame the pollsters. :eyes:

[newyawker99]

9. Hi Pierre Trudeau!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: