Interesting numbers inside the WaPo poll

[JPJones]

                       18-30	31-44	45-60	61+	All
Bush and Cheney	        35% 	60% 	53% 	46% 	50%
Kerry and Edwards	60% 	37% 	43% 	49% 	46%

I was at a Dem rally and the speaker asked everyone under 30
to raise their hands.  Lots of hands go up.  She then asked
them to keep there hands up if their only phone is a cell
phone.  About half the hands stayed up.

 	             18-30	31-44	45-60	61+	All
First time voted 	46% 	6% 	3% 	1% 	11%
in presidential elect
Have voted in previous 	54% 	94% 	97% 	99% 	89%
presidential elections

Note that if this is the first time you voted in a pres.
elect., you won't be in the likely voter column.

Poll methodology:
1,803 adults, including 1,592 self-identified registered
voters and 1,238 likely voters. (23% of reg. voters are
unlikely voters)

However, 82% of people say they are certain to vote.
 	        18-30	31-44	45-60	61+	All
Certain 	75% 	84% 	85% 	82% 	82%
Probably vote	14% 	5% 	6% 	4% 	7%
Chances 50-50	9% 	5% 	4% 	3% 	5%
Less than 50-50	0% 	2% 	0% 	1% 	1%
Won't vote	1% 	0% 	0% 	1% 	0%
ALREADY VOTED	1% 	3% 	5% 	9% 	4%
DK/No opinion	0% 	0% 	0% 	1% 	0%

[TimeToGo]

1. Well

Unfortunately younger people are bad at getting out to vote -- at least historically. So if ALL those numbers are accurate, then Kerry is in big trouble.

HOWEVER:

I don't like those other numbers. And I am sorry (I hate to doubt numbers simply because I don't like them), I just don't believe the 31-44 number at all.

[JPJones]

2. Point is, this is still margin of error, even after they throw

out likely Dem voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The 31-44 Breakdown Does Seem Extreme....

And as far as the 18-30 crowd they are being polled... The fact that many of them don't have cellphones makes it more difficult to get a good read...

However some still have landlines... And unless you can prove to me that cell phone use or lack of use is related to political preference then I will have to assume that you can divine the positions of those in tha age group by reaching those with landlines...

[WI_DEM]

4. only 75% of 18-30 year olds say they are "certain" to vote

while all the other groups are in the 82-85 percent category, that is what we are up against. The youngest voters are among Kerry's most enthusiastic supporters but they are not as likely to show up and vote than other age groups. I wish our numbers among seniors were a bit stronger.

[JPJones]

5. Considering how far down Gore was at this time

I think the internal numbers tell a story that is pretty good for us.