Rasmussen: a big uptick for Kerry (B 48 -- K 46.7)

[Goldmund]

Bush has lost 1.1 points since yesterday, while Kerry has gained 0.8 -- cutting the margin by 1.9 points.

Saturday October 23, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When "leaners" are included, the President leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[endnote]

1. LOL. With these MOEs, talking about 1 point changes is ridiculous

[troublemaker]

2. Depends how one talks about them

It's reasonable to say that the odds are greater than 50% that Kerry had a better last 3 days in the average national opinion than he did a week ago.

I wouldn't bet much money on such a statement, but it's better than a poke in the eye.

[Goldmund]

3. Take it for what it's worth.

And also, it's a 2 point change -- and since it's a 3-day tracking poll, that means that the Oct 22nd results were higher than the Oct. 19th numbers by 6 points, or 5.7 to be exact (since the 20th and the 21st are being included in the average both today and yesterday).

We report, you decide.