If Newsweek has it TIED at 46-46, then Kerry is actually LEADING by 50-43!

[TruthIsAll]

All I did was readjust the weights to the ACTUAL VOTING MIX in
the last three elections.

It's NOT Rocket Science.

Oh, one more thing. The Democrats will vote 88-90% for
Kerry,so 49-43 is really CONSERVATIVE. 

It's really more like 52-43, if we assume that at least 88% of
Dems will vote for Kerry. They will - by probably more than
90%.

This is what Newsweek reports:						
Reg	Sample Mix	Dem	Wtd	Rep	Wtd
Dem	307	31.8%	85%	27%	8%	2.5%
Rep	363	37.6%	8%	3%	92%	34.6%
Ind	296	30.6%	52%	16%	29%	8.9%

Total	966	100%		46%   	       46%
						
After readjusting the mix:						
Reg	 Mix	Dem	Wtd	Rep	Wtd
Dem	39%	85%	33.2%	8%	3.1%
Rep	35%	8.%	2.8%	92%	32.2%
Ind	26%	52%	13.6%	29%	7.5%

Total	100%	       49.5%	       42.9%


But at least 88% of Dems will vote for Kerry,
so he is really winning by 52-43.

Reg	Mix	Dem	Wtd	Rep	Wtd vote
Dem	39%	88%	34.3%	8%	3.1%
Rep	35%	12%	4.2%	92%	32.2%
Ind	26%	52%	13.6%	29	7.5%

Total	100%		52.09%		42.86%

[friesianrider]

1. I hate polls, but...

If Kerry is within 3 or 4 points, I think that equates into Kerry actually being ahead by 3 or 4, not behind.

These national polls are a bunch of BS.

[mvd]

2. I agree

I think the polls are really missing out this year. I've decided to rely on some state polls, our internal polling, and battleground reports from DU.

[trotsky]

3. Are Newsweek & Gallup polling together or something?

Why are both over-estimating the number of Repukes voting by so much? Have Republicans EVER had higher turnout than Dems in a presidential election?

Although the good news buried in there is Independents breaking almost 2:1 for Kerry. Sweet!

[David Dunham]

4. Very good anaylsis of the numbers.

[59millionmorons]

9. compare

Compare the independents with Zogby who say's they are breaking towards Bush.

[trotsky]

20. That makes no sense.

Zogby just went on record this week saying he expects Kerry to win. If he knows that independents are going for *, why would he announce that prediction?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Are We Talking Indys Or Undecideds...

nt

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Right, I think they confused independents with undecideds

Zogby wrote today that Bush had a very good polling day yesterday and undecideds are down to 4%. He speculated if that means undecideds are breaking unexpectedly to Bush.

I didn't see any comment about independents.

[lancdem]

23. I think we'll see the Zogby numbers move around

some more in the next 10 days as the election nears.

[Riddler]

5. These polls don't matter at all

because it's the Electoral Vote that matters. Kerry could easily receive well over 50% of the popular vote, but lose 2 or 3 key states by 1 vote and shithead gets the EV. It's the EV in battleground states we need to be worried about, not what any of the multitude of various polls say.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Wrong. If Kerry receives 51% of the popular vote, he's almost

a sure winner.

Here's why:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Riddler]

17. Then, what if...

Kerry wins California (55 EV) and NY (31EV) by overwhelming landslides. Bush barely eaks out a win in Ohio (20 EV), Florida (27 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), Virginia (13 EV), and North Carolina (15 EV), (just for the sake of argument only). Kerry would 86 EV and much greater percentage of total vote in those states, and shithead would have 96 EV with much lower percentage of vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You're Ignoring States That Bush Will Crush Kerry In Including Texas...

Repeat after me...

The Electoral College usually but not always follows the popular vote....


We can play parlor games where Kerry can win the EC with thirty percent of the pop vote but it ain't gonna happen...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Virtually Impossible In The Real World... Possible On Paper

The electoral college usually but not always follows the pop vote... As the pop vote increases the Electoral College vote inreases...


Show me an instance in recent history where the pop vote and the Electoral College vote have diverged as widely as you suggest...

[Proud2BAmurkin]

7. you're correct

.

[w4rma]

8. Just ignore the polls. They're a distraction from acutally doing the work

needed to get Dems into office. They are a distraction from time that could be spent on important policy information.

[Ksec]

10. I agree.

I say if its tied in the polls we win. Its just a given

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. That's Great....

Where did you get the party id breakdown for Newsweek?

[TruthIsAll]

13. Right here, buddy.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1147957

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Thank You....

Why does Newsweek hide their methodology....


It's not accessible from their own website....



Newsweek isn't weighting their sample for party....


Who knows?

History is on our side because Democrats have a three or four percentage edge in presidential participation which has been consistent over time....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Have A Question For You

You are interested in polling and statistics like me...


Zogby, TIPP, and Rasmussen are allegedly weighting for party...


If the science behind the polling is correct why are they not coming up with results close to your Newsweeks' adjusted results?

[TruthIsAll]

19. I wish I knew the answer. Maybe it has something to do with LV vs. RV.

If we look at the state polls, my model has Kerry leading by almost 2% nationally, but if weu assume Kerry wins 75% of the undecided/other vote, it's Kerry 52.33- 47.67.

Now, if we take 1.67% from Bush for parties, it's about 52-46-2.
That's a nice 6% spread, and probably a minimum 340 EV.

[lancdem]

24. Those are all tracking polls

so maybe there's an inherent difference between tracking polls and nontracking polls. I've noticed Kerry seems to do better in nontracking polls, because some of these show him with a lead (AP, Democracy Corps, Economist).

[LittleClarkie]

15. Thanks Truthisall -- I need a landslide

I always enjoy your analysis.

And I hope you're right. I bet three different people that Kerry will win in a landslide.

I feel slightly dirty betting on something so serious, but in retrospect, I think I was trying to get the smirk of a few faces. One of my old classmates, the bartender I've talked about before, loves to get this chimp smirk on his face and tell me when the polls are not in Kerry's favor and how my guy is going down.

The landslide comment wiped that smile right off. I love making people do spit takes.

So even though just a decisive win would be wonderful (ie a win too big to be stuck in the courts) I'd really like that damn landslide. It would shut a few people up for a while. I could use that here in Freeperville.

And then we could show the rest of the world we aren't a bunch of fascists over here, that the majority know the score. Then we could hold our head up in the world again.