* has lost in Ohio and Pa. He's TOAST.

[MikeG]

Caught you. FREEPERS.

[aldian159]

1. Good to hear, but got any info? Specifics?

What triggered this?

[lancdem]

5. I know Kerry will win PA

He has a good chance in Ohio, but it's still up for grabs.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

2. Eh? eom

[MikeG]

7. Go here.

www.electoral-vote.com

[MoonRiver]

10. It's weird.

I seem to recall that this site had Penn. Kerry by a pretty wide margin, and OH was barely * one or two days ago! I guess this is just a reflection of our manic all over the place polls. :crazy:

[lancdem]

11. It's only in the barely Kerry category

because he's going by a Strategic Vision poll, and they're a Repuke pollster that always tilts heavily toward Bush. Kerry is up by much more than 1 point in PA.

[MoonRiver]

12. Yes, these electoral vote sites use a few reputable & many shady pollsters

So we get this fairly predictable pro-* skew. :argh:

[ogradda]

3. let us savor every detail with you

please? :)

[TheFarseer]

4. I think you're right about PA

I'm not convinced on Ohio. The latest Zogby had bunnypants up in Ohio. Gallop having Kerry ahead by 6 is curious. I'll be eager to see if that is just an outlier or if the race has shifted next week. I really think there are only a few scenarios left where bush can win this.

[lancdem]

6. A Scripps Ohio University poll

released a day or two ago has Kerry up 4 among LVs and 5 among RVs, so this is one case where Gallup appears not to be an outlier.

[Ediacara]

8. huh?

[democrank]

9. One of the worst things we could do right now

is get cocky and assume that for Bush it`s all over but the crying. It isn`t and we should be working harder than ever.

[demosincebirth]

14. Amen!!

[Merlin]

13. Agreed he wins OH and PA. But we still have a big problem.

MN and WI--both of which went Gore in '00--each with 10 EV are in the Bush column (MN) or tied (WI) at the moment. Their loss of 20 EV offsets the OH gain of 20 EV.

Further, we're losing Iowa (Gore '00 = -7 EV) but we're winning NH (Bush '00 = +4 EV), which is a net loss of -3 EV.

So the net effect, if we lose WI but win MN, as seems likely, and everything else goes the way it's tending, is Bush 271, Kerry 267.

If we can FL or MN or AK or NC or VA or NV, then we're in. But these are all in the red at the moment.

http://2.004k.com/

[iwantmycountryback]

15. Minnesota is not going to Bush

Fugghedabout it. That Rasmussen poll is BS. Wisconsin is close and Kerry could win but it's very close. Kerry's going to win MN, period.

[Merlin]

16. That's my thinking, too. Can't believe WI is tied while MN is red!

That makes no sense whatsoever. However, I'm not confident we'll get WI.

MN is one of the more enlightened states in the union.

Hell, we're just getting geared up now to listen to our regular Sat night radio entertainment: Prarie Home Companion, courtesy of Garrison Kiellor and Minnesota Public Radio.

[AmerDem]

17. shrub is making 8 stops in Ohio

towards the end of next week.