Some Iowa Early Voting Results (good news)

[sonicx]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/23/141634/27

Kerry Holds a Large Lead in Iowa
by Chris Bowers

In actual votes. With at least 7% of the vote in, right now Kerry holds a sizable led on Bush:
Ballots Returned %
RNC 28824 28.2
DNC 51706 50.6
IND 21590 21.1
Total 102120 100.0

-snip-

I don't think these are actual kerry or bush votes, btw, just the party ID's of the voters.

[David Dunham]

1. Great news

[tedoll78]

2. Geezum...

I love it! And you KNOW we're winning independents!

[grannylib]

3. Yeah, I don't think it can be actual votes; I don't think they can be

COUNTED until after polls have closed on election day.

[Fla Dem]

10. That was my thinking too. If real vote results released, it might

motivate SOME people to do unethical things if the vote isn't going their way.

[Roland99]

4. SUH-WEET

[Dawgs]

5. My Quick Analysis shows...

that Kerry could get around 55%, while Bush would only get 43%.

I gave 2% to third-party votes, and split the independants evenly. I calculated 95% of Reps would vote Bush and 88% Dems would vote Kerry. I think my numbers are pretty conservative... giving the benefit of the doubt to Rep voters and Indy votes.

That's really good news when considering this is 7% of the state.

[tedoll78]

6. Yup.

If this continues until Election Day, I don't see how Bush could make-up the ground he needs to get back on top. And with Independents breaking for Kerry, Bush's climb gets even STEEPER.

That's 7 more EVs. Add Ohio. Now we just need one of NM/MV/WI.

:)

[sonicx]

8. i say kerry will win indies, but i don't think it will matter

dems turnout will put him ahead easily.

[Chichiri]

7. 7% of the vote . . .

Does that mean 7% of the EARLY vote, or 7% of the TOTAL vote?

[sonicx]

9. i think all, not really sure, tho.

[Quixote1818]

23. With around100,000 votes in that would be around 7% of total vote

as their was about 1,300,000 votes in Iowa in 2000.

[Dawgs]

11. I think we are finally seeing some numbers...

that are close to what most of us have been thinking. It really pissed me off last week when Gallup said that Reps are more energetic than Dems. I think we all knew it was BS. Now we are finally seeing some numbers to show what we knew was true.

[Pirate Smile]

12. I have a mailing the Linn County (Iowa) Republican Party sent to my Hubby

today. It says the following:

"Thursday, October 21, 2004

-snip-

The absentee ballot effort of the Democrats continues unabated. Funded by hundreds of millions of dollars from billionaires like George Soros, our county efforts are straining under the Democrats' intense foraging for votes. As of today the ballot count is

Linn County Absentee Ballots by Party Affiliation

(it has a bar graph but I will just summarize the numbers)

Returned 2000:
Dem - a little over 7,000
No Party - almost 6,000
Rep - almost 8,000

Returned 2002:
Dem - over 8,000
No Party - 4,000
Rep - 5,000

Returned 2004 (to date):
Dem - almost 11,000
No Party - 5,000
Rep - a little more than 5,000

Requested 2004 (to date)
Dem - almost 15,000
No Party - more then 9,000
Rep - not quite 8,000

My Absentee Ballot was one of those 11,000. The Dems push it big time here.

[Arugula Latte]

13. Although I hate to quote a McDonalds jingle,

what the heck:

Ba da da daaaah: I'm LOVIN' it!

[sonicx]

14. those darn Democrats with their huge turnout. LOL

[Craig Roberts]

15. Geez...

So now a successful effort to get out the vote is a bad, evil thing - it's "intense foraging for votes."

How despicable of the Democrats! Encouraging widespread participation! That's cheating!

[Arugula Latte]

25. Voting while Liberal --

that's just plain Un-American! What do these progressives think this country is supposed to be -- a Democracy?

[Dawgs]

18. Beautiful...

I can't see how we wouldn't see similar numbers in every state. If that is the case, then we should similar numbers at the polls. Remember, Iowa is not California or New York. In fact, many have recently been considering it a swing state.

[Quixote1818]

21. 7,000 more absentee votes is probably enough to give it to Kerry

[Blue Gardener]

28. That's good news from Linn County

I know there are a lot of fundie churches in Cedar Rapids (my sister's included) that love *Bush. My Johnson County ballot is in, but then we always go dem.

[Craig Roberts]

16. I really think it's over

All the "likely-voter" assumptions behind the polls are wrong. Nobody has factored in the huge Democratic turnout we are seeing and are going to see more of on 11/2. Plus, there is every reason to believe the independents are going to go heavily for Kerry. This is going to be a landslide.

I'm betting he takes Missouri, Iowa and Arizona. Any takers?

[sonicx]

17. i dunno...i say bush gets MO.

maybe AZ as a slight chance, but i'd bet on the 1st tier swing states first.

[Quixote1818]

19. Can you say LANDSLIDE!!!!! THE BASE IS ON FIRE!!!!

[bobbieinok]

20. remember CHALLENGE DEMS AT THE POLLS, DEM REGISTRATIONS

THROWN OUT

loooooong lines discourage working democrats

[Jane Austin]

22. Remember the law requires employers to give employees

time off to vote.

I'm an employer and I'm INSISTING on it! :)

[StevenD]

24. I think it is a measure of energy. I

Why more Democrats than Pugs? My thought is that it shows that Dems are fed up and can't wait to kick Bush out of the White House. I hope this translates into a big turnout. However, playing devil's advocate, perhaps it only means that we are mad enough to vote early and the pugs will turn out numbers on 11/2. Hope not.

[Renew Deal]

26. That's a very good sign.

[chelaque liberal]

27. Shows party ID. Don't forget, we are hearing about a lot of

Republicans who are voting for Kerry. I admit to living in an insulated world-I get most of my news from DU, but my guess is that there aren't as many Dems voting for Bush.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

29. I'm nervous as I'm writing this, but ..........

......... I live in Northern Virginia, right across from DC. It's traditionally a very conservative area. No Democrat has carried VA since LBJ took it in 1964, I believe.

But, the other day, driving around the area, I started counting Kerry/Edwards signs and the other guys' signs. Truly, I was hoping that it would at least be tied, but I figured that was too much to hope for.

Kerry/Edwards signs outnumber the other by 4 to 1.

This is the land of the Pentagon and military bases and military retirees. This has always been a right-wing stronghold. The American Nazi Party had their national headquarters in Arlington, for god's sake. They felt safe there.

4 to 1.

I still can't believe it. I've never seen anything like this here.

[eriffle]

30. How these numbers come about

It's kind of a tricky thing. See, the votes aren't counted yet, you can not release actual vote totals until all the polls in a state close. This was the issue in 2000 the news channels called FL for Gore even though the panhandle still had polls open because of the different time zone. The news channels got their info from exit polls. These early vote polls are similar in scope. See, both parties have their call lists. They've called these people and identified them in which way they were leaning. Normally there's five categories: Strong Kerry, Leaning Kerry, Undecided, Leaning Shrub, Strong Shrub. In WV (and I think most other places) the fact that you voted is public record and both parties get a list of who voted and they can cross reference that with their lists of voter predisposition. If there is a poll taken in the state at the same time of early voters that shows the same number, then they may be close, but please be careful in that these numbers aren't real. The numbers on election night normally aren't real, they're scientific polls and it is up to the wonderful news networks to take a gamble on whether or not they are confident in the polling data.

[9119495]

31. One of those votes is mine.

Straight ticket actually. Iowa will remain blue--and it will be because of the huge voter registration and vote collection drives by dems.